Monthly inventory update

2/27/09 - Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Mar Vista are all up for the week and month (typical for this time of year). The first two are up year-to-year - Palisades hugely - but Mar Vista is down. Charts coming soon.

A second low-end north-of-Montana member joined the $1.8M club: 209 25th Street. And 1135 Berkeley (originally listed April 2006 for $2,450K) is finally "Looking for Backup" after reducing its price to $1.5M.

2/20/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly; Mar Vista and Pacific Palisades are up more. Seems like a lot more price reductions than sales in SM and PP, while low-end Mar Vista does have new escrows.

2/13/09 - Pacific Palisades was up, while Santa Monica and Mar Vista were flat. Another north-of-Montana house joined the $1.9 million club: 415 17th, 3 bed / 3 bath, originally listed 12/4/08 for $2,245K, abruptly dropped its price to $1,899K at the beginning of the week (see SM Distress Monitor).

2/6/09 - Pacific Palisades inventory jumped for the week, while Santa Monica and Mar Vista was pretty flat. More price reductions and churn of expired/ withdrawn listings back on the market as others leave. And a couple into escrow.

Not unlike the LA Times, the Santa Monica Daily Press on Friday had its front page "Housing price slide comes to Westside" article (pdf). Gary Limjap, the main real estate agent interviewed - who was pretty realistic, especially saying "Sunset Park being among the hardest hit, seeing its home values drop 25-30 percent in the third quarter 2008 from the same time in 2007" - just happened to have a bottom front page ad. Hmmmm.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/ 6/09         67   5  93 159  64   7 164 132  67   4 155
 2/13/09         68   6  93 160  67  10 170 133  68   7 156
 2/20/09         69   6  95 165  70  13 180 147  73  12 154
 2/27/09 37,647  73  12  98 164  73  17 181 148  75  19 131
 3/ 6/09

All Westside

            1/30    3/27    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
                2/27     5/1    6/26    8/28   10/30   12/31 
B.Air-H.Hls. 101 106
Bv.Ctr.-M.M.  58  65
Beverly Hls. 109 123
B.H. P.O.    127 147
Bvywd.Vic.    47  54
Brentwood    146 162
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31  38
Culver City   52  44
Malibu       254 267
Malibu Beach  63  70
Marina D.Rey  32  32
P.Palisades  157 181
Palms-M.Vista 66  75
Playa Del Rey 24  24
Playa Vista    6   6
Santa Monica  94  98
Sunset-Hwd.H.285 299
Topanga       70  73
Venice       104 121
W.Hwood.Vic.  61  58
West L.A.     20  30
Westchester   53  60
Wwood.-C.City 67  72
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2009 Total  2027
                2205
2008 Total  1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

WeHo Homes

Let me add my welcome to SM Distress Monitor's to the new WeHo Homes blog. It was a bit audacious to start here as if I could cover the whole Westside. Welcome WeHo!

Mar Vista 2004 rollback

Here's another good example from reader Lori (thanks!), a 3 bed / 2 bath short sale at 12707 Marco Place in Mar Vista (L.A. 90066), listed 1/15/09 for $799K.

"The current listing price ($799K) is just above the July 2004 selling price ($768K) and as far as I know it hasn't sold yet so who knows if the listing price will stick."

It previously sold 6/14/07 for $1,055K and 6/16/04 for $768K. So far no takers at $799K, a 24% drop from the last sale.

December S&P/Case-Shiller

No surprises in today's December 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers for Los Angeles, now down 37.4% from September 2006 peak, back to November 2003 levels, still both steep and symmetrical.

By month that's 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 28.3% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $324,070, $324,070 - $492,006, and Over $492,006; updated for December; the upper just dropped below $500K). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 48.8%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another 2.0% to 27.6% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to March 2004.

Not selling in Sunset Park

To complete our updates on stagnant inventory this month, here's inventory over 30 days on the market in Santa Monica's Sunset Park (east of Lincoln, south of Pico), that we last visited May 16, 2008.

2/23/09 - 20
5/16/08 - 14
1/16/08 - 14
12/15/07 - 15
11/14/07 - 24
10/15/07 - 19
9/13/07 - 16
8/15/07 - 12
7/14/07 - 13

Of 20 houses over 30 days on the market (up nearly 50% from spring 2008), 14 are over 90 days (red below) and 1 is from 2007 (bolded below). Looking for price reductions that will drive prices down, we find 14 (2/3) have reduced, including 5 of 15% or more. And there are more listed within the last 30 days.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date

819 Pier, 2/1, $625K (-42%), 5/9/08
2219 14th, 2/3, $725K, 1/18/09
1213 Oak, 2/1.5, $795K (-11%), 9/17/08
1008 Bay, 2/1, $849K (-5%), 1/5/09
2329 32nd, 2/1, $899K, 11/7/08
2633 30th, 3/3, $990K (-23%), 1/4/09
1514 Maple, 2/2, $998K, 1/8/09

2455 Cloverfield, 3/1.5, $1,019K (-7%), 11/19/08
1328 Hill (photo), 3/2, $1,098 (-14%), 6/30/08
1731 Cedar, 3/1, $1,100 (-15%), 1/18/08
3023 Glenn, 3/3, $1,100K, 1/22/09
2424 31st, 3/2, $1,175K (-4%), 11/24/08
1027 Ashland, 4/1.75, $1,249 (-10%), 4/25/08
1643 Hill, 5/4, $1,350K (-27%), 8/5/08
1731 Wellesley, 4/3, $1,400K (-7%), 9/11/08
2222 Marine, 4/4, $1,450K (-27%), 5/17/07

2904 Pearl, 4/4, $1,650K (-11%), 6/24/08
1208 Sunset, 4/4, $1,795K, 11/1/08
1214 Pearl, 4/4.5, $1,825K (-14%), 10/8/08
1701 Oak, 4/3, $1,895K, 10/28/08

Weekly inventory update

2/20/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly; Mar Vista and Pacific Palisades are up more. Seems like a lot more price reductions than sales in SM and PP, while low-end Mar Vista does have new escrows.

2/13/09 - Pacific Palisades was up, while Santa Monica and Mar Vista were flat. Another north-of-Montana house joined the $1.9 million club: 415 17th, 3 bed / 3 bath, originally listed 12/4/08 for $2,245K, abruptly dropped its price to $1,899K at the beginning of the week (see SM Distress Monitor).

2/6/09 - Pacific Palisades inventory jumped for the week, while Santa Monica and Mar Vista was pretty flat. More price reductions and churn of expired/ withdrawn listings back on the market as others leave. And a couple into escrow.

Not unlike the LA Times, the Santa Monica Daily Press on Friday had its front page "Housing price slide comes to Westside" article (pdf). Gary Limjap, the main real estate agent interviewed - who was pretty realistic, especially saying "Sunset Park being among the hardest hit, seeing its home values drop 25-30 percent in the third quarter 2008 from the same time in 2007" - just happened to have a bottom front page ad. Hmmmm.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/ 6/09         67   5  93 159  64   7 164 132  67   4 155
 2/13/09         68   6  93 160  67  10 170 133  68   7 156
 2/20/09         69   6  95 165  70  13 180 147  73  12 154
 3/27/09

High-end discount!

This 7 bed / 8 bath country-club-facing estate at 1605 San Vicente (upper left in photo) was offered from August-December 2007 for a Santa Monica record $22.5 million (our 8/20/07 post).

But no one bit. Now it's back on the market for only $16.5 million - a 27% discount. Its current description is:

"Extraordinary view lot in premier location. Rare 76,000 sqft view lot with sweeping vus over the Riviera Golf Course to the mnts beyond. The impressive spacious traditional residence was custom blt in 1990 by Gordon Gibson for the present owners. Walled, gated & secluded this mostly all flat lot encompasses a separate guest hse, mature trees, fruit trees and vegetable garden. The custom designed pool & watrfall take advantage of the exceptional vus, patios and green lawn perfect for entertaining"

The most expensive Santa Monica house sale I'm aware of was 2121 La Mesa on 4/29/08 for $10.85 million, followed by 236 Adelaide on 9/12/08 for $8.6 million. We'll see if all those rich buyers show up for this one.

January DataQuick

Today's January DataQuick numbers declined yet again. Median prices are now down 45.5% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 33% year-to-year from January 2008 - but that was an all-time low. They were down 23% from the previous month, December 2008, and below previous years. (December DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to April 2003, Orange County to August 2002, Ventura County to June 2002, and San Diego all the way to December 2001.

North of Montana news flash!

News flash! Our north of Montana indicator 320 9th Street just reduced again, from $1,895K to $1,795K, now down 14%.

Not selling in Pacific Palisades

Last May (5/24/08) I did a first "Not selling in Pacific Palisades", which found 27 houses under $2M over 30 days on the market, with 14 over 90 days.

Talk about a stuck market! Would you believe now there are 47 over 30 days, including 37 over 90 days, 5 from 2007 (bolded below), and yet more listings within the last 30 days not yet on the list! This is the detail behind the soaring inventory graph, grouped by 100,000s.

There are already some impressive price reductions (15% and over in red) that will eventually take the market where it needs to go. And what's with all these listings at $1,995K?

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date

16751 W Sunset, 3/2, $899K (-25%), 8/3/08
16723 W Sunset, 4/3, $900K, (-10%), 10/28/08
616 Las Lomas, 2/2, $950K (-17%), 11/19/08

520 Bienveneda, 2/1.5, $1,195K (-8%), 10/10/08

1315 Avenida de Cortez, 5/3, $1,269K ( -20%), 1/31/08
15027 W Sunset, 3/2, $1,275K, 1/15/09
569 Mount Holyoke, 1/1.5, $1,279K, 12/16/08
1104 Via de la Paz (photo), 2/2, $1,289K ( -43%), 11/2/07
614 Swarthmore, 2/2, $1,295K (-24%), 10/20/08
17941 Tramonto, 3/1.75, $1,295K, 10/24/08
17060 Livorno, 2/2, $1,299K (-24%), 11/7/07

715 Iliff, 2/2, $1,388K (-4%), 6/13/08
1363 Avenida de Cortez, 4/3, $1,390K (-12%), 8/20/08
14852 W Sunset, 2/2, $1,395K (-25%), 4/29/08
17056 Livorno, 3/2, $1,395K (-5%), 10/13/08
16910 Marquez, 4/2.5, $1,399K (-20%), 10/15/08
784 Wildomar, 2/1.75, $1,399K (-5%), 1/15/09

16836 Livorno, 2/2, $1,400K (-4%), 9/9/08
1454 Avenida de Cortez, 4/3.5, $1,435K (-10%), 1/9/09
708 Jacon, 3/2.75, $1,475K (-16%), 9/19/08
874 Fiske, 3/3, $1,479K (-10%), 9/11/08

14742 Oracle, 4/3, $1,525K (-10%), 11/26/08
16776 Calle de Marisa, 5/4, $1,550K (-11%), 5/6/08
820 El Oro, 4/3, $1,595K (-20%), 10/10/07
838 Fiske, 5/3.5, $1,595K (-18%), 7/18/08
360 Aderno, 3/2, $1,595K, 10/27/08

16799 Calle de Marisa, 4/3.5, $1,645K (-4%), 8/13/08
553 Swarthmore, 3/2, $1,695K, 9/10/08
544 Paseo Miramar, 3/2.5, $1,695K (-13%), 3/3/08

18120 Wakecrest, 3/2, $1,749K (-4%), 10/2/08
1029 Chautauqua, 3/2, $1,750K (-12%), 10/20/08
1885 Michael, 5/5, $1,795K (-10%), 7/17/08
3814 Castlerock, 3/3.5, $1,799K (-18%), 12/13/07

1151 Embury, 4/3, $1,875K, 12/26/08
222 Notteargenta, 3/3, $1,895K (-5%), 11/2/08
625 Palmera, 3/2.5, $1,895K, 12/18/08
800 Enchanted Way, 3/2, $1,895K (-1%), 10/20/08

654 Resolano, 3/3, $1,980K (-8%), 3/19/08
14931 McKendree, 5/4.25, $1,995K, 10/30/08
16006 Temecula, 4/3, $1,995K (-9%), 10/18/08
16736 Calle Arbolada, 4/3.75, $1,995K, 11/13/08
844 Toyopa, 3/1.75, $1,995K, 11/24/08
16619 Calle Haleigh, 4/4.5, $1,995K, 6/25/08
15455 Albright, 3/2, $1,995K (-9%), 9/4/08
16646 Calle Brittany, 3/3.5, $1,995K (-17%), 11/8/07
3912 Spray, 5/2.75, $1,995K (-11%), 4/29/08
1006 Hartzell, 5/3, $1,999K, 1/12/09

Not selling north of Montana

It's as if there are two Westside real estate markets not talking to each other: sellers holding out unsuccessfully for high prices, and buyers unwilling or unable to pay that much. But at least some sellers are reducing prices, ranging from many small reductions to a big lump after awhile. That is the mechanism that will eventually drop the market price level.

Remember our "Not selling north of Montana" series? Here's the summary of our monthly lists of everything over 30 days on the market for these months in 2007 and 2008:

5/20/08 - 21
4/21/08 - 21
1/16/08 - 7
12/15/07 - 9
11/14/07 - 9
10/15/07 - 11
9/15/07 - 10
8/16/07 - 13
7/16/07 - 8

Where is it now? At 29 it's at record levels, with 22 over 90 days on the market (red below). Note how it now includes all of low-end, middle, and high-end (separated into millions below), and many have had price reductions (4 of 15% or more).

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date

527 7th, 2/1, $1,690K (-6%), 5/12/08
320 9th, 3/2, $1,895K (-10%), 11/12/08
209 25th, 3/2.5, $1,899K (-7%), 10/7/08
415 17th, 3/3, $1,899K (-15%), 12/4/08
733 20th, 3/2, $1,995K (-5%), 10/27/08

620 22nd, 3/2, $2,249K (-6%), 10/23/08
237 Adelaide, 1/1.5, $2,295K (-21%), 7/7/08
308 15th, 3/2, $2,350K (-5%), 1/5/09
1102 San Vicente, 4/2, $2,495K, 10/24/08
247 20th, 3/3, $2,500K (-13%), 10/8/08
634 12th, 3/2.5, $2,625K (-3%), 10/20/08
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08
1628 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K (-21%), 10/25/08

444 10th, 5/3, $3,130K, 11/13/08
365 23rd, 4/4.5, $3,195K (-14%), 11/13/08
636 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,595K (-10%), 3/14/08
734 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,678K (-14%), 3/21/08
311 Marguerita, 5/4.5, $3,695K, 1/5/09
443 14th, 4/5.5, $3,950K (-7%), 12/4/08
1005 San Vicente, 2/4.5, $3,995K (-7%), 9/12/08
327 Alta, 5/3.5, $3,995K, 12/1/08

215 21st Pl, 5/4.5, $4,195K, 12/12/08
703 25th, 5/5.5, $4,688K, 11/6/08
251 24th, 6/6, $4,695K, 10/31/08
133 17th, 5/6.5, $4,800K, 10/30/08
402 20th, 5/5.5, $4,959K (-10%), 10/30/08

1228 San Vicente, 5/5.5, $5,250K, 10/21/08
315 Palisades, 4/3.5, $5,995K, 12/9/08

808 Adelaide Pl (photo), 7/10, $12,450K (-27%), 3/31/08

I'll follow up later with Sunset Park and Pacific Palisades.

Weekly inventory update

2/13/09 - Pacific Palisades was up, while Santa Monica and Mar Vista were flat. Another north-of-Montana house joined the $1.9 million club: 415 17th, 3 bed / 3 bath, originally listed 12/4/08 for $2,245K, abruptly dropped its price to $1,899K at the beginning of the week (see SM Distress Monitor).

2/6/09 - Pacific Palisades inventory jumped for the week, while Santa Monica and Mar Vista was pretty flat. More price reductions and churn of expired/ withdrawn listings back on the market as others leave. And a couple into escrow.

Not unlike the LA Times, the Santa Monica Daily Press on Friday had its front page "Housing price slide comes to Westside" article (pdf). Gary Limjap, the main real estate agent interviewed - who was pretty realistic, especially saying "Sunset Park being among the hardest hit, seeing its home values drop 25-30 percent in the third quarter 2008 from the same time in 2007" - just happened to have a bottom front page ad. Hmmmm.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/ 6/09         67   5  93 159  64   7 164 132  67   4 155
 2/13/09         67   6  93 160  67  10 170 133  68   7 156
 2/20/09

2003 prices in Pacific Palisades

On the theme of 2003 prices, here are some similar low-end examples from Pacific Palisades in the "El Medio Bluffs" area south of Sunset and west of Temescal. Above is the 3 bed / 2 bath / 1,765 SF house on a small 4,225 SF corner lot at 601 Erskine Drive that sold 12/5/03 for $860K. This looks like it may have been remodeled since that sale.

Two others in the area are 508 Muskingum Avenue, 2 bed / 2 bath / 1,157 SF house on a 5,445 SF lot, sold 9/30/03 for $910K, and 536 Muskingum Place, 3 bed / 2 bath / 1,518 SF house on a 5,053 SF lot, sold 11/26/03 for $930K.

Then there's this one. The cheapest sale in the area in 2003, this 2 bed / 2 bath / 1,143 SF house at 784 Wildomar sold 5/28/03 for $762K. Which is not surprising when you discover it's right next to the apartment building (left in photo) at the corner of Sunset and Wildomar.

Turns out it's for sale. Asking the implausible price of $1,399K (already reduced from $1,479K after 3 weeks). It's described as:

"Beautiful, zen-like setting with a good feeling of privacy. Absolutely move-in condition two bedroom, 1.75 bath Contemporary home in El Medio bluffs area. Spacious living room with fireplace and veranda. Family room off kitchen and dining - opens to recently redone oasis-type yard, large spa and patio. Separate, detached non-permitted office/gym behind garage. Some hardwood floors, beautiful wood details, frosted front door, lush landscaping. Tract 9300."

Is the reason that properties next to traffic din are called "zen-like" that one has to be in a zen state to not hear the noise?

2003 prices in Santa Monica

Two weeks ago I projected a 33% drop in Westside prices, reverting to 2003 levels, in 2010. What does that look like? Here are some examples of low-end 2003 sales in two Santa Monica neighborhoods we follow pretty closely.

North of Montana, (photo above, click to enlarge) is a 4 bed / 3 bath, 1,867 SF house on a regular 7,500 SF lot at 229 12th Street, that sold 4/10/03 for $1,375K.

Two more on 7,500 SF lots are the 5/3, 1,672 SF house at 501 10th, sold 1/17/03 for $1,400K, and the 2/2, 1,521 SF house at 602 10th, sold 9/5/03 for $1,397K.

These are very consistent, and among the 2003 data points of my North of Montana index of low-end sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid. But although low-end, none of these has been torn down. Would true lot-value have been lower?

Low-end asking prices are down to $1,900K; $500K to go? Or more, if they overshoot to the $1,100K level of 2002.

I've similarly used Hill and Ashland as a Sunset Park index, although it has a less-well-defined low end.

The 3 bed / 1 bath, 1,212 SF house on a 7,000 SF lot at 1809 Hill Street (above), sold on 2/5/03 for $585K, appears the lowest sale price on Hill or Ashland in 2003.

A higher price point is the 3 bed / 2 bath, 1869 SF house on a 7,050 SF lot at 1648 Hill (below), that sold 1/16/03 for $715K.

With low-end but not substandard Sunset Park now around $8-900K, we've got another $2-300K to go to 2003 prices.

Weekly inventory update

2/6/09 - Pacific Palisades inventory jumped for the week, while Santa Monica and Mar Vista was pretty flat. More price reductions and churn of expired/ withdrawn listings back on the market as others leave. And a couple into escrow.

Not unlike the LA Times, the Santa Monica Daily Press on Friday had its front page "Housing price slide comes to Westside" article (pdf). Gary Limjap, the main real estate agent interviewed - who was pretty realistic, especially saying "Sunset Park being among the hardest hit, seeing its home values drop 25-30 percent in the third quarter 2008 from the same time in 2007" - just happened to have a bottom front page ad. Hmmmm.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  15 157 145  66  15 157
 2/ 6/09         66   5  93 159  64   7 164 132  67   4 155
 2/13/09

Carmelina rollback

On the same subject of falling prices, reader Lori wrote:

Here's info on a listing below in Brentwood I found on redfin.com that encapsulates that boom/bust: $825K in 1989 and $500K in 1995, which I thought I'd share. Also shows that Brentwood has rolled back to at least 2005, and this house hasn't sold yet at the latest price reduction.

This 3 bedroom / 2.5 bath house at 1001 S. Carmelina Ave., Los Angeles (Brentwood), one street east of Santa Monica, was listed 12/4/08 for $1,695K, but is already down to $1,395K after 3 reductions, 5% below its last sale price of $1,475K on 8/24/05. It's described as:

"Well located 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home with hardwood floors. Appealing floor plan with living and family room plus formal dining room. Master bedroom has walk-in closets."

"Westside housing goes south" - LA Times

Of course we have to comment on yesterday's Los Angeles Times cover story, "Westside housing goes south"! First, Peter Hong wrote a strong article about Westside fundamentals that will help move the necessary price correction (good word) forward. And second, we can put together more pieces about its featured sale. He begins,

The Southern California real estate crash has finally reached the high-end areas of the Westside.

Home prices in Beverly Hills, Santa Monica and Malibu -- which continued to soar well into 2008 -- finally tanked at the end of the year, losing between 26% and 30% of their value in just a few months, the latest data show.

Based on DataQuick median price data in the accompanying table, Santa Monica prices were down 27.4% from the peak quarter to the 4th quarter of 2008. Beverly Hills's drop was even more, 30.0%. Greatest was Cheviot Hills-Rancho Park 90064 at 32.5%.

This article must make people shudder who have their houses on the market right now, and embolden current buyers. The drop is real, even if median prices may overstate the change a bit. Mirroring what we know, it cites:

"The market is absolutely correcting," said Richard Stearns, who lives in Santa Monica and sells real estate in Brentwood. "Prices are softening, houses are taking longer to sell, the number of transactions is down."

The downward trend is no surprise to economist Christopher Thornberg, principal of the Los Angeles consulting firm Beacon Economics, who for years angered many real estate agents by repeatedly saying the Westside would eventually see price declines just like the rest of Southern California.

"It was never a function of if," Thornberg said. "It was always when."

When people in entry-level homes can't sell their properties to move up, there is less demand in the middle tier and eventually at the high end, he said.

"It takes a while, but the markets are all linked," Thornberg said.

The numbers were bound to go down, he and others said, for the same reasons they did in less wealthy neighborhoods -- prices rose beyond what incomes could reasonably support.

Wealthy areas can stave off market woes for a while, in part because well-off homeowners usually have the resources to sustain high mortgage payments and weather downturns longer than people with less money. In many cases, the affluent can afford to hold on to a house longer while waiting for a better price.

But eventually the market catches up, and those who want to sell their expensive houses have to cut prices.

It goes on to note a 35% price drop in the 1990s, and that sellers temporarily renting are pushing rents down now.

So what about Shelley Conn's featured house? She

put her Santa Monica house on the market last spring.

She and her husband, Bill, had been offered $2.4 million for the three-bedroom just months before, so she listed the house for $2.3 million, figuring that would make up for the lousy real estate climate. But it didn't sell until November, after the couple dropped the price to $1.9 million.

That looks to be 460 Lincoln Blvd. (photo above), originally listed 4/14/08 for $2,395K, withdrawn in June, relisted 8/20/08 for $2,195K, not reduced further but into escrow 9/29 and closed 11/21 for $1,900K. They must have been very motivated sellers, already having bought their new house for "$3.9 million". WarChestSM's post further confirms this is the property, citing as did the article its previous purchase on 1/13/97 for $825K.