Sunday, March 31, 2013

1Q 2013 Inventory

The story of extremely low inventory continued on the Westside for the first quarter of 2012 for Santa Monica less than $3 million and the Westside in general (blue bars).




Sunday, January 27, 2013

2012 Inventory wrap-up

 
The big story for 2012 was much lower MLS inventory numbers throughout the year, for both Santa Monica less than $3 million and the Westside in general (the orange bars). Anecdotally desirable houses are selling very quickly, an expected result of low inventory and searching buyers.
 
We'll see if the trend continues in 2013. Will potential sellers allegedly waiting for a better market finally list? What about remaining foreclosures?

 
All Westside
              1/29/12    3/30     6/1    7/27    9/28   11/30
                      3/2    4/29    6/29    8/31    11/2   12/28  

Bel Air-Holmby H.  99  94  96  90 100 107 103  99 104 100  92  79
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  51  44  47  44  49  49  48  40  30  29  36  26
Beverly Hills      85  82  89  98  98 100 107  97  83  76  67  58
B.Hills P.O.      107  96  98  95  97 101 100  90  86  89  75  68
Beverlywood Vic.   51  44  38  44  43  40  39  34  34  30  22  21
Brentwood          87  94  92 104 104  83  85  75  85  67  66  48
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 19  14  16  22  19  19  21  17  11   4   6   5
Culver City        31  29  36  37  37  42  34  42  39  30  18  16
Malibu            174 198 191 189 192 186 180 164 155 137 139 122
Malibu Beach       82  77  71  71  74  85  83  83  74  67  67  57
Marina Del Rey     17  22  19  24  20  12  16  13  10  10   8   7
Pacific Palisades  89  94  89  96 114 111 107  90 101  76  66  54
Palms-Mar Vista    66  61  53  56  46  43  53  41  45  34  35  21
Playa Del Rey      19  23  16  14  10  13  11   8  10  10  11   7
Playa Vista         1   2   3   4   5   2   2   2   2   1   0   0
Santa Monica       55  57  56  61  61  66  54  49  51  41  42  27
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  192 188 188 203 213 212 209 183 189 186 162 126
Topanga            48  53  53  51  50  52  46  42  42  36  35  29
Venice             60  69  57  67  59  59  53  37  50  39  37  30
W.Hollywood Vic.   28  26  32  35  35  33  30  35  22  23  21  17
West L.A.          33  31  31  27  25  20  23  13  22  19  18  10
Westchester        45  38  33  45  44  39  46  36  23  27  26  22
Westwood-Cent.City 39  43  41  44  46  36  42  30  30  23  20  10
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2012 Totals      1478    1445    1541    1492    1298    1069
                     1479    1521    1510    1320    1154     860
2011 Totals      1695    1797    2013    2022    1921    1648
                     1802    1908    1995    1896    1821    1397
2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998    2129    2094    1831    
                     1691    1910    2038    2064    2062    1509
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827 
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486 
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128 
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822 
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600 
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329 
See 2007, 20082009, 2010, and 2011 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

Friday, November 23, 2012

Calculated Risk interview


Nice interview with Calculated Risk's Bill McBride on Business Insider (h/t Paul Krugman). CR/Bill was an icon to a lot of us back when (you know you were one if you recoginze his original masthead, above!).
JW: Are you surprised at the institution that Calculated Risk has become? Did you think you’d be going strong 7 years later?
BM: It’ll be 8 years in January. I didn’t even know what a blog was. I’m going to start one and figure out what it is, and I’m going to write about housing, because that’s what I’m most concerned about. …What happens is it just got more and more interesting, the truth is I’m always interested in the economy
I'm still tracking Westside inventory monthly, just haven't gotten around to posting it. I'll do a year-end summary for 2012. The short summary is, significantly lower inventory than previous years.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Krugman: Obama, Romney, Jobs

Paul Krugman posted this chart today that really says it all.
Greg Sargent is rightly outraged by Romney’s claim that Obama is a job destroyer ... Does this look to you like a president who “lost jobs”, or like a president who inherited an economy in free fall? You can accuse Obama of not doing enough to promote recovery — and I have (although the biggest villain here was Romney’s own party). But to claim that Obama caused the job loss is indefensible.
(There's so much to say in this election year, I think you're going to be hearing rather more from me.)

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Low-end 90402 and 90405 sales in 2011


Ah, Redfin. I used to manually track and report listings and subsequent sales for Santa Monica 90402 and 90405. Now it's as simple as putting a zipcode into Redfin, selecting sales within the last year, and sorting by price.

So here are the 2011 sale prices to $1.75M in 90402 on the regular streets (omitting busy 7th, 26th, and San Vicente). Conclusion is there's little low-end, and it's continued to hold between $1.6M and $1.7M since the crash.

Address, bed/bath, sale price

210 21st Pl., 2/2, $1,625K
620 17th St., 2/1.75, $1,650K
533 10th St., 3/2, $1,692K
828 Georgina Ave., 3/2, $1,693K
220 12th St., 2/1.5, $1,700K
434 17th St., 3/2, $1,725K
620 15th St., 3/2, $1,730K
445 18th St., 3/2, $1,747K


And here are 2011 sale prices to $900K in 90405 Sunset Park, omitting busy streets (Ocean Park, Pearl, Marine, 11th, 14th, 17th, Cloverfield, 23rd), 40-foot-wide lots, and airport-adjacent.

Here I'm seeing a continuing price decline, with quite a few sales below $800K, in contrast to even two years ago, let alone peak Ashland and Hill sales prices 2005-2008 well over $1M, and Hill Street back to 2004.

1514 Maple St., 2/2, $675K
1337 Grant St., 2/1, $675K
1741 Cedar St., 3/1, $730K
2345 21st St., 4/3, $750K
2025 Ashland Ave., 3/2.5, $770K
2940 16th St., 3/2, $775K
1109 Maple St., 2/1, $798K
1114 Maple St., 3/1.75, $814K
2315 27th St., 2/1, $825K
2417 18th St., 4/2, $849K
1044 Maple St., 3/3, $873K
1808 Ashland Ave., 3/1, $875K
2216 Pier Ave., 4/2.5, $880K
2255 22nd St., 2/1, $900K

Friday, December 30, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller (October) and DataQuick (November)

Completing statistics for the end of 2011, the October S&P/Case-Shiller, is continuing down in both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite. Los Angeles is down 39.6% from its September 2006 peak, at September 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 31.9% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

The DataQuick numbers for November also show an overall downtrend. Los Angeles County's median was at $308K, down 424.0% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at May 2003, Orange County prices at April 2003, Ventura County at February 2003, and San Diego County at May 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average.

December 2011 Inventory

Wrapping up 2011, here are year-end MLS inventory numbers for Santa Monica and the greater Westside. In general they're running a bit below the last two years for the second half of 2011, except for Santa Monica over $3 million. See older posts for Santa Monica new listings and sales.


All Westside
              1/28/11     4/2    5/28    7/30    9/30    12/2
                     2/26    4/30     7/1     9/9   10/28   12/30  

Bel Air-Holmby H. 113 118 114 115 124 119 131 122 127 121 104  91
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  63  71  70  74  79  78  82  66  59  45  54  42
Beverly Hills      96 103 104 115 118 118 117 106 100  83  85  77
B.Hills P.O.      119 131 123 130 134 130 134 139 133 138 129 107
Beverlywood Vic.   43  53  62  54  63  57  65  63  69  63  58  48
Brentwood          89  95  97 101 106 109 107 109 115 104 102  85
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 26  23  24  24  32  41  36  28  25  22  20  17
Culver City        37  44  49  52  56  65  57  55  44  44  40  34
Malibu            202 212 229 244 252 240 242 218 214 213 188 171
Malibu Beach       82  85  84  89  94 100  98  98  99  96  89  79
Marina Del Rey     20  25  30  30  31  32  25  27  26  23  17  15
Pacific Palisades 108 101  98 123 135 138 132 110 120 115  93  75
Palms-Mar Vista    64  66  61  75  80  93  95 101  90  85  78  65
Playa Del Rey      17  16  20  23  23  17  21  20  19  21  18  13
Playa Vista         2   3   2   3   5   4   4   1   1   2   1   1
Santa Monica       71  78  74  77  74  81  87  74  76  74  64  50
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  229 232 230 232 220 222 236 220 237 234 215 185
Topanga            63  65  60  66  71  64  64  66  70  72  64  56
Venice             77  82  78  84  91  86  82  80  75  69  67  58
W.Hollywood Vic.   36  37  40  41  47  48  50  47  52  47  40  36
West L.A.          42  61  38  47  61  39  32  29  37  29  28  24
Westchester        60  71  65  56  63  61  71  72  82  68  57  46
Westwood-Cent.City 36  30  45  53  54  53  54  45  51  53  37  22
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2011 Totals      1695    1797    2013    2022    1921    1648
                     1802    1908    1995    1896    1821    1397
2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998    2129    2094    1831    
                     1691    1910    2038    2064    2062    1509
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827 
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486 
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128 
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822 
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600 
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329 
See 2007, 20082009, and 2010 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).