Thursday, July 29, 2010

S&P/Case-Shiller (May) and DataQuick (June)

Tuesday's May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller was an uptick for both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, but as a three-month average through May likely reflects the end of federal tax credits more than a rising trend.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 1.68% from April and 0.68% from March, down 0.70% from February and 0.67% from January, up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July, now down 36.2% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 29.6% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

For a view ahead, this chart from Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture yesterday, of the S&P/Case-Shiller in real dollars, projects a continued fall to long-term values.

The DataQuick numbers for May show three of the four counties back down for the month. Los Angeles County's median was at $335K, down 39.1% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at September 2003, Orange County prices at October 2003, Ventura County at May 2003, and San Diego County at August 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average; the DataQuick downtick may be a leading indicator for Case-Shiller's dirction.

As I wrote last month, in general prices continue pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.

Monday, July 26, 2010

90403 - 90404 - Ocean Park 90405 sales March-June

In the first of three parts, here are Santa Monica sales for the four months from March to June, 2010, except north of Montana and Sunset Park. These reflect the frenzy of buyers trying to get into the federal tax credit; things seem to have slowed down in July.

I've featured 750 Navy Street (photo above) that originally was listed on 3/3/08 for a whopping $1.9M. It finally sold REO for $781K, a 59% reduction!

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

90403

614 California, 3/1.5, $849K, 5/6/10, 6/15/10, $895K (+5%)
838 25th, 2/1, $1,195K, 2/23/10, 3/31/10, $1,385K (+16%)
1043 Centinela, 2/1, $1,459K (-7%), 1/14/10, 6/4/10, $1,450K (-1%)
824 Stanford, 4/2, $1,649K (-17%), 9/11/08, 4/1/10, $1,564K (-5%)
933 Harvard, 3/2.5, $1,849K, 1/14/10, 3/23/10, $1,849K
1147 Centinela, 5/6, $2,795K (-7%), 9/30/09, 4/7/10, $2,650K (-5%)


90404

1917 12th, 2/1, $625K (-43%), 3/1/09, 3/15/10, $625K
3024 Arizona, 2/1, $699K, 1/5/10, 6/9/10, $735K (+5%)
3011 Urban, 3/2, $749K, 3/27/10, 6/15/10, $740K (-1%)
1321 Chelsea, 2/2, $795K (-15%), 1/7/10, 6/11/10, $750K (-6%)
3014 Delaware, 3/2, $825K (-3%), 11/11/09, 5/11/10, $800K (-3%)


Ocean Park 90405

718 Marine, 1/1, $559K, 2/18/10, 6/18/10, $535K (-4%)
725 Marine, 2/1, $769K, 3/4/10, 6/10/10, $765K (-1%)
708 Raymond, 2/1.25, $785K (-8%), 4/28/09, 3/10/10, $720K (-8%)
750 Navy (photo), 2/1.5, $799K (-58%), 3/3/08, 4/21/10, $781K (-2%)
713 Bay, 2/2, $897K, 2/25/10, 6/26/10, $875K (-2%)
711 Pine, 3/2, $1,295K (-12%), 4/6/09, 6/21/10, $1,200K (-7%)
2513 3rd, 3/1.75, $1,475K, 5/10/10, 6/8/10, $1,475K
528 Ocean Park, 3/3, $2,500K (-29%), 10/15/08, 6/15/10, $2,000K (-20%)

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

June Inventory, Sold, New

Westside inventory has been running second-highest since 2006, below only last year's financial-meltdown levels. Santa Monica inventory below $3M has been similar until until June, when unusually-high sales (from the tax credit ending?) depleted listings. Santa Monica inventory above $3M has been slowly restoring from a very low fall 2009. New listings have been reasonably flat. See the bottom for the breakdown of the Westside totals.











All Westside

                 1/29     4/2    5/30    7/30    10/1   11/26
2/26 4/30 7/3 8/27 10/29 12/31


Bel Air-Holmby H. 91 99 109 111 111 131
Beverly Ctr.-M.M. 58 66 75 74 91 92
Beverly Hills 96 115 103 117 118 124
B.Hills P.O. 127 126 124 136 142 137
Beverlywood Vic. 31 34 36 41 50 57
Brentwood 102 115 113 129 137 127
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 21 18 20 28 27 34
Culver City 30 36 35 36 39 39
Malibu 209 215 211 226 231 242
Malibu Beach 75 70 72 76 72 84
Marina Del Rey 27 31 26 28 27 25
Pacific Palisades 106 107 122 148 148 134
Palms-Mar Vista 58 65 67 88 91 77
Playa Del Rey 14 13 17 25 23 23
Playa Vista 4 3 4 4 4 5
Santa Monica 68 74 79 87 88 81
Sunset-Hwd.Hills 214 228 231 246 259 267
Topanga 53 66 69 71 71 68
Venice 61 66 80 75 81 90
W.Hollywood Vic. 37 36 25 32 36 42
West L.A. 12 17 21 21 23 26
Westchester 49 47 48 56 58 70
Westwood-Cent.City 42 44 58 55 71 63
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___

2010 Totals 1585 1745 1998
1691 1910 2038
2009 Totals 2027 2281 2196 2233 2034 1827
2205 2262 2160 2133 1979 1486
2008 Totals 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Totals 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329
See 2007, 2008, and 2009 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).