S&P/Case-Shiller (May) and DataQuick (June)

Tuesday's May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller was an uptick for both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, but as a three-month average through May likely reflects the end of federal tax credits more than a rising trend.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 1.68% from April and 0.68% from March, down 0.70% from February and 0.67% from January, up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July, now down 36.2% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 29.6% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

For a view ahead, this chart from Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture yesterday, of the S&P/Case-Shiller in real dollars, projects a continued fall to long-term values.

The DataQuick numbers for May show three of the four counties back down for the month. Los Angeles County's median was at $335K, down 39.1% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at September 2003, Orange County prices at October 2003, Ventura County at May 2003, and San Diego County at August 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average; the DataQuick downtick may be a leading indicator for Case-Shiller's dirction.

As I wrote last month, in general prices continue pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.