Tuesday, December 30, 2008

October S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's October 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 34.4% from its peak in September 2006, back to February 2004 levels. Notice how symmetrical it has been (unlike the DataQuick median prices). It's been retracing another month with each new month passed, and seemingly closing on its longer-term trend line.

By month that's 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 25.0% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $351,171, $351,171 - $530,387, and Over $530,387; updated for October). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 45.5%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down a steeper 2.2% to 24.4% from its June 2006 peak.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Saturday LA Times

Here are highlights and comments on Saturday's LA Times' "Home prices expected to fall further in 2009 by Peter Hong. It begins:
Real estate experts who were troubled by a 10% drop in median home prices near the end of last year from the previous year probably were stunned by the 35% drop in values since then. ...

Growing unemployment, more declines in consumer spending and a particularly long and deep recession are expected to batter home prices even further next year, they said.

Got that right. Then here's a projection by Christopher Thornberg worth noting:

At the end of November, Southern California's median home sales price had fallen to $285,000, from $435,000 in November 2007. If median prices were to continue falling at that pace, they would be below $200,000 a year from now.

But even bearish forecasters don't expect so severe a decline. More likely, prices in Southern California will settle in late 2009 at a level roughly 55% below their peak, said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles economist.

That would amount to a price near $230,000, a level at which home prices would be roughly in line with incomes by historical norms.

But then came this way-off-base statement:

UCLA economist Edward E. Leamer said further government action to stop foreclosures was essential for putting the brakes on falling home values.

"When you're sick you need medicine for the disease, not the symptoms," he said.

In housing, the disease is the deterioration of neighborhoods and home values as houses are foreclosed, abandoned and sold at greatly reduced prices, said Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.
No, the disease is the credit and housing bubble, and falling prices and foreclosures are the symptoms! To push the analogy further, a fever is the body's way of curing an infection, and falling prices will eventually cure the bubble.

Weekly inventory update

12/26 - Slight decline for Santa Monica, a little more for Palisades, and a slight increase for Mar Vista, not that I'd expect much of a change over Christmas.

We'll have a lot of year-end wrap-up in the next week or so: large trends over 2008, graphs, and detailed lists.

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market. A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/ 5/08 64 2 92 143 53 1 143 129 72 5 126
12/12/08 62 3 93 154 48 2 136 114 70 6 141
12/19/08 54 3 84 159 52 4 138 126 66 8 149
12/26/08 53 3 82 165 49 5 132 129 67 10 139

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Happy Holidays!

Have a great holiday, and celebrate what matters a lot more than stuff you buy!

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Adelaide Place "ease and calm"

Down at the end of Adelaide Place (the cul-de-sac extension of Adelaide Drive east of 7th Street), behind the wood gates (above; click to enlarge photos), is the most expensive current listing in Santa Monica at 808 Adelaide Place. If it sells it will be the most expensive sale in Santa Monica; last year's 1605 San Vicente (MLS) for $22,500K expired unsold a year ago.

This 10 bed / 7 bath, 10,629 SF new house overlooks Santa Monica Canyon on a 24,280 SF lot. Originally listed 3/31/08 for $16,975K, it was relisted 10/30/08 for $12,450K.

"Come see the FABULOUS NEW LOOK of an enchanting brand new hacienda on a private lot w/ocean views. Indulge oneself in the freedom of a spontaneous, undemanding life of ease and calm. Anticipate the myriad pleasures and rewards of urban sophistication with every amenity. The glorious main house has 6 bedrooms and a lower level with space for theater and billiard room. The full guest house/party pavilion has a fireplace and opens to the lovely pool area. Reward yourself with this trophy property."

Can you believe that, a "spontaneous, undemanding life of ease and calm" paying for a $12 million house?! And I doubt its builder is feeling much "ease and calm" right now, trying unsuccessfully to sell this huge spec.

The view over the gate below doesn't show the larger part of the house out of frame to the left.

Below is what the former house looked like in 2004 from about the same place, after selling for $5,500K. It had a sweet spaciousness.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Weekly inventory update

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market.

A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/ 5/08 64 2 92 143 53 1 143 129 72 5 126
12/12/08 62 3 93 154 48 2 136 114 70 6 141
12/19/08 54 3 84 159 52 4 138 126 66 8 149
12/26/08

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Not selling in Palisades

There's quite a bit not happening in Pacific Palisades worth mentioning, but these two stand out. First is 680 Bienveneda Ave. (above), the fourth lot below busy Sunset Blvd., a 3 bed / 2 bath maybe-attempted-flip going noplace. Last sold 4/26/05 for $1,369.5K, it listed 8/6/08 for $1,549K, presumably expecting some profit for a fix-up. Oops. Three reductions later it was down to $1,349K two weeks ago.

"FIRE-SALE! Seller says "SELL!" Major $200,000 PRICE REDUCTION on the CUTEST house on the BEST street in the Palisades! Recently renovated w/exquisite detail, this cozy beach bungalow features hardwood floors, a fireplace, French doors, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom closets, Waterworks fixtures, Bose surround sound speakers, plantation shutters & an al-fresco dining patio w/outdoor fireplace - perfect for entertaining! BEST 3 BEDROOM HOUSE IN THE PALISADES FOR THE MONEY!"

Then there's the current record oldest listing below $2M in Palisades, 1104 Via de la Paz (above), the fourth lot above Sunset (a pattern here?), a 2 bed / 2 bath house now reduced 38% to $1,399K, 412 days since being listed 11/2/07 at $2,250K. Hard to say what its last sale price was: the Assessor has it Recorded 8/15/05 for $1,545K, while Zillow shows a sale 5/23/08 for $1,736K. The latter may be the sale to the bank.

"BANK OWNED REO!! CONTEMPORARY SINGLE STORY IN THE HEART OF PACIFIC PALISADES JUST STEPS FROM VILLAGE, SCHOOLS, HIKING TRAILS AND MUCH MORE. NEW CARPET AND PAINT. SHOW AND SELL !"

More coming in low-end Pacific Palisades....

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Venice canals update

Remember our discussion of the Venice Canals on September 1st? I wondered what happened to those 9 listings since then, and found a stark answer.

The least-expensive, 226 Carroll Canal (3/2.5, LP=$1,499K, -25% from OLP) is now Looking for Backup as a Short Sale after a 25% reduction. The second-least-expensive, 430 Linnie Canal (3/2.5, $2,299K) sold close to asking for $2,227K on 10/1. One is still available (457 Howland Canal, 4/4, $3,000K, -5%).

But the other 6 are all Expired / Withdrawn. Couldn't sell anything over $2.25M in a prime Westside neighborhood.

Four new listings round out the 5 now available:

2337 Eastern Canal, 1/1.5, $1,699K (-13%), 10/27/08
429 Sherman Canal, 3/3.5, $2,850K (-14%), 10/6/08
416 Linnie Canal, 4/3.5, $2,995K (-3%), 10/2/08
2407 Eastern Canal, 4/3, $3,165K (-6%), 9/10/08

November DataQuick

Today's November DataQuick numbers declined yet again. Median prices are now down 38.2% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were off 13% from November 2007 and 26% from October 2008. (October DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to November 2003, Orange County to April 2003, Ventura County to March 2003, and San Diego all the way to March 2002.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Weekly inventory update

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market.

A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisdades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/ 5/08 64 2 92 143 53 1 143 129 72 5 126
12/12/08 62 3 93 154 48 2 136 114 70 6 141
12/19/08

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

North of Montana <$3M outcomes update

I received an email from "E" asking, "Can you do a post summarizing all the lower-end 90402 that have closed in November / December, in the midst of all this equity market turmoil?"

It's been some time since our July list of outcomes, and some of you can never get enough of 90402, so it's timely to give an update of all the MLS listings I've tracked (in order of final listing price). Note all the recently-Withdrawn listings, that may dump back on the market next spring.

Sold

476 26th, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$1,685K (-14% from OLP), OLD=11/7/07, SD=5/28/08, SP=$1,575K (-7% from LP)
420 7th, 2/2, $1,699K (-8%), 2/8/08, 9/29/08, $1,600K (-6%)
1140 San Vicente, lot, $1,895K (-14%), 1/30/08, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
704 15th, 2/1, $1,990K (-13%), 8/22/07, 2/25/08, $2,100K (+6%)
517 Euclid, 5/2, $2,139K (-3%), 4/19/08, 8/8/08, $2,079K (-3%)
460 Lincoln, 3/3, $2,195K (-8%), 4/14/08, 11/21/08, $1,900K (-13%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,195K, 1/28/08, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
710 19th, 3/2, $2,295K (-8%), 3/10/08, 7/19/08, $2,086K (-9%)
334 15th, 2/1, $2,295K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,400K (+5%)
249 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 4/10/08, 5/28/08, $2,500K (+6%)
231 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,325K (-1%)
402 19th, 2/2, $2,325K, 9/4/08, 12/4/08, $2,215K (-5%)
751 24th, 5/5, $2,350K, 9/10/08, 11/12/08, $2,254K (-4%)
416 21st Place (photo), 3/1.75, $2,375K, 9/4/08, 10/31/08, $2,185K (-8%)
423 15th, 3/1.75, $2,379K, 7/9/08, 10/15/08, $2,365K (-1%)
447 11th, 3/2, $2,385K (-6%), 8/18/07, 4/15/08, $2,385K
626 19th, 4/3, $2,389K, 6/13/08, 8/15/08, $2,401K (+1%)
327 21st, 3/2, $2,395K, 6/12/08, 7/2/08, $2,300K (-4%)
416 17th, 3/2, $2,399K (-6%), 11/29/07, 2/26/08, $2,360K (-2%)
701 20th, 3/3.5, $2,595K, 3/24/08, 5/20/08, $2,500K (-4%)
316 18th, 3/1.75, $2,598K, 2/8/08, 3/28/08, $2,415K (-7%)
238 17th, 4/3.5, $2,635K (-2%), 3/11/08, 6/20/08, $2,550K (-3%)
241 24th, 3/2, $2,695K (-7%), 1/9/08, 4/15/08, $2,695K
214 Euclid, 3/2, $2,700K, 4/4/08, 5/22/08, $3,350K (+24%)
633 Euclid, 4/3, $2,750K, 4/22/08, 7/25/08, $2,675K (-3%)
1230 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K, 9/18/08, 11/25/08, $2,810K (-3%)
303 22nd, 3/3, $2,895K, 6/23/08, 8/21/08, $3,000K (+4%)
621 19th, 3/2.5, $2,895K, 3/8/08, 6/9/08, $2,675K (-8%)
234 Alta, 3/3, $2,980K, 3/14/08, 8/7/08, $2,675K (-10%)
710 23rd, 4/3, $2,999K (-9%), 7/13/07, 4/29/08, $2,900K (-3%)

Sale Pending

534 19th, 2/2, $2,250K, 9/3/08, Looking for Backup 10/12/08

Expired or Withdrawn

426 4th, 3/3, $1,929K, 10/17/08, Withdrawn 11/18/08
733 20th, 3/2, $2,099K, 10/27/08, Withdrawn 12/3/08
702 11th, 3/2, $2,169K, 5/29/08, Withdrawn 7/24/08
517 14th, 3/2.75, $2,198K (-8%) 5/1/08, Withdrawn 11/21/08
754 23rd, 4/3.5, $2,279K (-15%), 6/8/06, Expired
738 22nd, 3/2.5, $2,395K, 2/11/08, Expired
1020 San Vicente, 5/4.5, $2,665K (-11%), 7/9/07, Expired
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08, Withdrawn 11/3/08
212 24th, 3/3.5, $2,795K (-11%), 5/30/08, Withdrawn 12/5/08

(LP=latest List Price; OLP=Original List Price; OLD=Original Listing Date, across re-listings; SD=Sale Date; SP=Sale Price)

Beach Tract block party

As an addendum to South Beach Tract, here is a block party on Fraser in 2005 (don't forget you can click to enlarge photos now). They have a nice little community!

Monday, December 8, 2008

South Beach Tract

I received an email interested in comments on 127 Hollister Ave. Which I suggested should broaden into a look at the South Beach Tract, the small pocket of historic bungalows next to the beach north of Ocean Park Blvd. and west of Nielson Way in Ocean Park.

We'll start with 127 Hollister (the Spanish house, center-left above), a 3 bed / 4 bath house built new in 2005 (along with the two east of it) on what had been a single lot with a little old stucco house. Originally listed 10/2/08 for $3,395K, it was reduced 12% to $2,999K in late November. Note the part about bankruptcy in its description:

"Located on 100 feet of Ocean Avenue with stunning whitewater ocean views, this immaculate 3 bedroom, 4 bath Spanish home was custom built in 2005. The entire top floor is a romantic master suite and sitting room with a luxurious bath and spa tub. The gourmet kitchen features a charming breakfast area and ocean view. Entertain in style on the spacious 2nd floor terrace. Subject to bankruptcy court approval; Property sold "as is"; Addendum to accompany all offers."

The other current listing is the 2 bed / 1.5 bath remodeled bungalow, listed 10/22/08 for $3,295K at 124 Hart Ave. (tall dark-green on left above), described as:

"Rare 1904 quintessential beach bungalow completely restored to green standards w/ ocean views. Original charm & details, antique wide planked floors, bead board, moldings & built in window seat. Solar panels, hydronic floor heating system, dual-glazed low-E windows, skylight, security system & sound. Cook’s kitchen w/ marble counter tops + premium appliances. 2 car direct access garage, grassy yard & bonus room/guest house. Steps from the beach, gorgeous ocean views, walk to Main Street."

I've thought of low-end (which these aren't) South Beach Tract houses as priced like low-end north of Montana; you get less lot (only 1,890 SF at 124 Hart) but you're by the beach.

Looking for recent sales, I don't see any in 2008! Which doesn't look good for the two current listings at even higher prices. These two didn't sell:

150 Fraser, 2/2, LP=$2,050K (-18%), LD=10/4/07, Withdrawn 9/8/08
152 Hart, 4/3, $2,200K, 2/8/08, Expired 8/08

Looking back to 2006-2007 I find:

133 Hart, 4/2.5, $2,189K, 5/3/07, SD=7/11/07, SP=$2,189K
150 Fraser, 2/2, $2,395K (-4%), 10/4/07, Expired 12/07
136 Wadsworth, 4/4, $2,695K (+2%), 2/18/07, 5/4/07, $2,600K (-4%)
152 Hart, 4/3.5, $2,599K (-4%), 8/06, 10/31/06, $2,560K (-2%)
136 Wadsworth, 4/3, $2,750K, 9/06, 5/4/07, $2,600K (-5%)
120 Hart, 5/4, $2,980K, 7/06, 1/4/07, $2,700K (-9%)

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Weekly inventory update

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisdades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/ 5/08 64 2 92 143 53 1 143 129 72 5 126
12/12/08

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Oldest of the old

There are ancient listings and then there's the oldest of them all: the 5 bed / (but only) 2.5 bath house at 1135 Berkeley St. in Santa Monica. Originally listed in April 2006 for $2,450K, relisted at least three times with a variety of price reductions, some 958 days later it's now down 27% to $1,788K. That's over 2-1/2 years!

See Westside Story's comments last spring (that suggest it goes back to 2005 and nearly $3M). Don't know its last sale, but Zillow's very low property tax of $2,447K put it decades ago. A crop of its MLS photo is above; its description is (emphasis added):

"Another Price Reduction! North of Wilshire, 2-story Traditional-style home. Living room has wood burning fireplace; formal dining room. Beautiful hardwood floors, coved ceilings & authentic details. All new double-paned, tinted windows. Sunny kitchen with Viking & Bosch appliances. Plumbing is mostly copper. Huge, flat backyard with plenty of room for pool. Seller has maintenance contract with Economy Roofing for cleaning of gutters & inspecting of roof."

Note that joints between new copper and old galvanized pipes are prone to corrosion, so "mostly copper" is not "all copper". And why does the roof need an inspection contract?

Monday, December 1, 2008

Sunset Park 16% off in 2 years

Aarrrgggg - too many graphs! Remedied by an email tip from reader Lori about the 4 bed / 3 bath house at 2450 Euclid in Sunset Park (second block north of Ocean Park Blvd.).

Originally listed 9/26/08 for $1,375K, three price reductions later it's down to $1,175K.

The kicker is, Lori noted it last sold 11/22/06 for $1,400K (quickly, I'd add, after being listed about 11/10/06 for $1,410K). That's at least a 16% reduction in 2 years.

And a mystery we hope one of you can help with. Its description begins, "$100k Reduction! Agents please see private remarks." What is hidden in the private remarks that mere bloggers don't have access to?

Also, I finally figured out that if I upload a bigger photo you can click on it for more detail. Duh! So I'll start doing that with this one.

**********

Our condolences on Tanta's passing at Calculated Risk. You can measure a life by how many others it has touched. What a tribute to her that her delicious writing connected with so many others! She will live on in our hearts and minds.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Inventory charts






SM listings, sales, withdrawn / expired






Monthly inventory update

11/28 - Inventory is pretty flat for the month in Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades - despite a number of withdrawn listings - in contrast to its drop-off in past Novembers. Mar Vista has declined for the month and compared with 2007. Total Westside is up for the month, especially from high-priced areas like Beverly Hills, Malibu, and Hollywood Hills. Graphs will come soon.

11/21 - Inventory in all three areas (SM, PP, MV) is pretty flat from last week. Beneath the placid surface were more price reductions, a number of withdrawn listings, and a few failed escrows back on the market. I'll post some details next week.

Remember 2502 Marguerita, asking $5,495K? It closed really fast on 11/20 for an even $5,000K.

11/14 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up a little, while Mar Vista is down slightly.

The reduced-50% house at 16463 Akron in PP (3/2, $1,595K) was withdrawn after over 480 days on market. Our sandwiched-between-big-buildings 3766 Sawtelle in Mar Vista (3/2 $550K) was withdrawn, and the similar 3935 Inglewood (2/1, $555K) expired. Lots more in Santa Monica will be in separate posts.

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/ 7/08 64 6 89 130 54 2 159 120 80 2 117
11/14/08 66 9 93 130 56 4 158 113 78 5 121
11/21/08 66 11 93 137 56 5 156 120 78 8 131
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/ 5/08
All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30     8/1    10/3   11/28
2/29 5/2 6/27 8/29 10/31

Bel Air-H.Hls.85 82 95 100 108 110 115 113 115 113 107
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71 67 75 79 80 78 80 72 62 67 66
Beverly Hills 65 64 66 78 84 79 90 90 94 98 113
B.H. P.O. 78 80 92 95 101 113 118 121 125 123 117
B'wood Vic. 50 56 53 57 67 58 53 59 55 55 57
Brentwood 77 86 96 104 108 116 115 109 124 140 142
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21 19 20 24 25 31 34 33 38 40 41
Culver City 42 48 50 57 59 58 49 58 61 63 62
Malibu 185 200 213 242 261 266 265 258 240 244 260
Malibu Beach 38 49 57 60 50 49 59 61 59 52 59
Marina Del Rey26 36 25 25 26 27 32 33 33 35 42
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120 108 128 159 151
Palms-M.Vista 89 88 82 90 92 96 99 91 84 83 73
Playa Del Rey 22 19 15 15 23 24 28 29 26 25 26
Playa Vista 5 4 6 5 5 9 9 7 7 8 8
Santa Monica 67 68 81 84 79 98 89 79 82 90 91
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278 256 292 291 306
Topanga 49 44 63 69 66 62 60 61 62 69 88
Venice 72 72 74 83 85 77 89 79 83 96 100
W.H'wood Vic. 48 51 48 43 46 46 55 62 64 61 55
West L.A. 20 18 25 25 25 26 33 27 29 25 23
Westchester 72 54 79 86 91 88 82 76 78 77 70
W'wood-C.City 37 36 42 49 53 61 67 60 65 71 71
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Tipped south of Washington

We have a split decision on the two south of Washington listings we reviewed on 10/18/08 in the single-family neighborhood bounded by California, Washington, 22nd, and 25th, that both closed yesterday.

First, the ($100K-reduced) $1,299K low-end 3 bed / 1.75 bath 1030 Chelsea (photo above), sold for $1,200K. This is way below 2007 local comps 1020 Chelsea, $1,478K, and 1024 23rd, $1,445K, a rollback to 2004 pricing.

On the other hand, 2/2 2312 California (photo below), asking $1,395K (after a quick $100K price cut), sold for $1,375K, only slightly below its previous sale 7/12/06 for $1,392K. Although it did claim $100K of fix-up, so with selling costs it's a significant loss for the seller.

Both make the recent 3/2 listing at 2507 California for $1,599K look absurd, especially as it's on the block next to noisy 26th Street.

See the comps back to 2004 at the 10/18/08 post.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

North of Montana index

Here's an update on my low-end north-of-Montana index to go with the latest S&P/Case-Shiller, showing low-end sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid, scaled to equal the Case-Shiller index in 1990 (where 100 = $750K).

Because there has been only one such sale in over a year, I've shown similarly low-end but not on those four streets sales (three red dots above, two gray listings below), including yesterday's not-tear-down 460 Lincoln for $1,900K.

If lot value on 9th-10th-12th-Euclid is now around $1.7M (above the non-MLS 370 22nd, but below 460 Lincoln), that would put it back to early-mid 2005, per my list since 2000 below. If you think lot value is down to $1.6M (I'm not convinced yet), that's actually mid-2004 - not far off S&P/Case-Shiller for LA being back to early 2004. So even in 90402 the price momentum is now down.

1/00 $750K 518 10th
5/01 $995K 550 Euclid
6/02 $1,000K 544 Euclid
11/02 $1,100K 402 10th
5/03 $1,375K 229 12th
6/03 $1,397K 602 10th
7/03 $1,401K 627 Euclid
9/04 $1,610K 633 10th
12/05 $1,795K 717 Euclid
3/06 $1,976K 502 Euclid
6/07 $2,050K 307 Euclid
6/07 $2,160K 433 12th
8/08 $2,079K 517 Euclid
10/08 $1,600K 370 22nd
11/08 $1,900K 460 Lincoln

The full list since 1981 is in the first comment of this 9/18/07 post.

September S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's September 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 32.6% from its peak in September 2006, back to early 2004 levels.

By month that's 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 23.4% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $366,096, $366,096 - $522,784, and Over $522,784; updated for September). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 43.8%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another 1.7% to 22.7% from its June 2006 peak.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Breaking news: 460 Lincoln $1.9M

Another data point, north of Montana and not a tear-down for $1.9M: Originally listed 4/14/08 for $2,395K, withdrawn in June, relisted 8/20/08 for $2,195K, this 3 bed / 3 bath house at 460 Lincoln Blvd. just closed for $1,900K (13% below last asking).

A little quirky but not a tear-down, this large 2,471 SF house has been expanded across most of its back yard. Lincoln is busier than some streets, but not like 7th. Its description is:

"Wonderfully updated home in quiet location north of Montana. 3 bedrooms, 3 baths plus fam room. Large bright open “hang out” cook’s kitchen with stainless appliances and granite counters. Huge master suite, 2 nice fireplaces, beautiful hardwood floors, skylights, great light, French doors, gated and fenced. Oversized 2 car garage with workshop area. ..."

Also see SM Distress Monitor on 9/22.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Weekly inventory update

11/21 - Inventory in all three areas (SM, PP, MV) is pretty flat from last week. Beneath the placid surface were more price reductions, a number of withdrawn listings, and a few failed escrows back on the market. I'll post some details next week.

Remember 2502 Marguerita, asking $5,495K? It closed really fast on 11/20 for an even $5,000K.

11/14 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up a little, while Mar Vista is down slightly.

The reduced-50% house at 16463 Akron in PP (3/2, $1,595K) was withdrawn after over 480 days on market. Our sandwiched-between-big-buildings 3766 Sawtelle in Mar Vista (3/2 $550K) was withdrawn, and the similar 3935 Inglewood (2/1, $555K) expired. Lots more in Santa Monica will be in separate posts.

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/ 7/08 64 6 89 130 54 2 159 120 80 2 117
11/14/08 66 9 93 130 56 4 158 113 78 5 121
11/21/08 66 11 93 137 56 5 156 120 78 8 131
11/28/08

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Bigger events

I was going to recap the latest in low-end Sunset Park, but bigger events seem rather more important. Hope you all saw this comparison of this stock market crash to others on Calculated Risk, from dshort.com (see originals for full chart). The S&P 500's over-50% fall from its peak might even impact buyers in 90402, no?

Karl Denninger repeated, but worth copying here,

The market and economy will not stop falling apart until:
  1. Paulson is fired and his policies cease.
  2. We have transparency in balance sheets - for every firm on the exchange. No exceptions. All Level 3 asset mark models and assets identified - period.
  3. Bernanke withdraws all his alphabet soup programs or is removed from office and his successor does, and the "crowding out" in the credit markets ceases.
It's that simple, and all three must happen before we will see any sort of sustainable bottom put in. ...

The credit market was right and those who said it couldn't happen were wrong.

Yet it was another beautiful Santa Monica day! I'm optimistic that, although it will take time, out of this wreckage real estate prices will return to reality, and the new administration's focus on things of substance like investment in a sustainable energy policy will help rebuild the economy.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

October DataQuick

More of the same in today's October DataQuick numbers. Median prices are now down 35.5% for Los Angeles County from its peak a year ago August. Volumes rose 9% from August and a huge 56% from October 2007 - but are still well below the previous three Octobers. (September DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to February 2004, Orange County to June 2003, Ventura County to April 2003, and San Diego all the way to June 2002 (LA unchanged, others one month earlier than last month).

Sunday, November 16, 2008

New low-end north of Montana

Yet more north of Montana, here are two new listings and a recent sale to update our 10/31/08 low-end north of Montana sales.

Just listed 11/12 is this 3 bed / 2 bath, 1,733 SF house at 320 9th Street, on a 50 foot lot (7,500 SF), asking $2,095K, described as:

"BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY ENGLISH COTTAGE CURB APPEAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS HOME IN A GREAT NORTH OF MONTANA LOCATION. ... LARGE FORMAL DINING ROOM, KITCHEN W/EATING AREA AND ENCLOSED PATIO. AMENITIES INCLUDE A NICE YARD AND LARGE ROOMS. THE HOME NEEDS SOME TLC, REMODEL OR BUILD NEW."

This is really cute and pretty big, I'd think worth more than lot value. Redo the kitchen and bathrooms and you'd likely have a nicely-finished smaller house (I haven't been inside). I think I recall its brick facade was repaired after the 1994 earthquake.

Second is this 3 bed / 2.5 bath, 2,556 SF house at 209 25th Street, on a 60 foot lot (8,700 SF), asking $2,050K, described as:

"This is a one story ranch style with 3 bedroom, 2 ½ bathrooms and a large great room. There is a detached 2 car garage that is accessed from San Vicente Blvd. The property is being sold in as –is condition without any warranties or guarantees. Easy to show."

This seems similar in size and San Vicente Blvd. noise proximity to the 2 bed / 2.5 bath house 219 23rd Street, 7,975 SF lot, sold 1/28/08 for $1,880K, which we featured 2/19/08.

Finally, this 3 bed / 1.75 bath, 1,644 SF house at 416 21st Place on a 60 foot lot (9,000 SF) closed 10/31/08 for $2,185K, 8% off its 9/4/08 listing price of $2,375K.

"Wonderful Traditional home in Gillette's Regent Square. Live in, remodel or rebuild. 3BD, 1.75BA + converted garage to office with bath & FP. Beautiful hardwood floors thruout. High ceilings & FP in LR, charming breakfast room off kitchen, A/C, unique "gumwood" doors & windows, original tiles in bath. Attic w/darkroom, sink & lots of storage. Nice backyard w/mature trees. Do not miss! ..."

This is the lowest Gillette sales price since early 2006, except Montana-close 710 19th (closed 7/19/08 for $2,086K), in the 9/7/08 Gillette Regents Square low-end sales history.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Success and failure north of Montana

Here are tales of two spec builders north of Montana, which some of you can never get enough of....

One may have sold the highest-priced new house on a regular lot (60-foot, 8,700 SF) east of 7th Street. The 5 bed / 6 bath house at 2502 Marguerita (above) was listed 10/1/08 for $5,625M, beating our last record of $5,200K, and entered escrow 11/4. Last sale was 10/23/03 for $1,695K, according to Zillow. It's described as:

"Beautiful, warm & spacious super cool contemporary in coveted No of Montana location. Almost 7000 sqft feet of brand new, quality construction w/top of the line finishes. The main level of the home features a large open floor plan, a study and sleek eat-in kitchen. Upstairs is home to 4 generous bedrooms inc. grand master w/spa bath, & lower level is an entertainer's dream: screening room, gym, wine cellar, office. The outdoor areas offer dining patios, nice grass yard, and a great rooftop deck."

The other appears to be bailing, attempting to sell the vacant lot-and-a-half (11,250 SF) at 444 10th Street, with Richard Ramirez (architect of high-end Spanish houses) plans (but apparently not permits) for $3,130K. SM Distress Monitor covered this today. Wonder if construction financing dried up?

Listed 12/21/06 for $2,700K, I recorded it selling 6/6/07 for $2,750K. Above is a "time warp" interior photo of the two-story old bungalow that has since been demolished (I was hoping to find a photo of the front). But its most recent sale appears to be 8/15/07 for $2,950K. Did the first buyer resell it?

Added (thanks, Frank!!): Here's the MLS photo of the old house, and confirmation of its 6/7/07 sale for $2,750K.

Weekly inventory update

11/14 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up a little, while Mar Vista is down slightly.

The reduced-50% house at 16463 Akron in PP (3/2, $1,595K) was withdrawn after over 480 days on market. Our sandwiched-between-big-buildings 3766 Sawtelle in Mar Vista (3/2 $550K) was withdrawn, and the similar 3935 Inglewood (2/1, $555K) expired. Lots more in Santa Monica will be in separate posts.

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/ 7/08 64 6 89 130 54 2 159 120 80 2 117
11/14/08 66 9 93 130 56 4 158 113 78 5 121
11/21/08

Friday, November 14, 2008

SM listings, sales, withdrawn / expired


Looky-loo Mike's comment inspired me to post the other half of these graphs for October. Inventory grows from new listings, and shrinks from sales and listings withdrawn / expired. Here are those for Santa Monica, divided into <$3M and >$3M. Observations:

* Both new listings and sales <$3M were unusually low some months this year;
* Withdrawn and Expired listings exceeded Sold listings in October.