Saturday, January 12, 2008

New low-end north of Montana

For all you north-of-Montana fans, two new low-end (but not tear-down) houses were just listed Friday. Gut feel tells me these are plateau prices consistent with the last two years, neither attempting a step up nor discounting. Wonder how they'll do?

First is 231-18th St., 3 bed, 1.75 bath, asking $2,349K (photo above). It appears well-kept but not remodelled, on a well-located oversized 60 x 149 lot, with a pool.

"Wonderful 1935 Spanish in Gillette's Regent Square. Lrg bath has orig tiles, sep tub & shower enclosures. 2nd BA off 3rd BD. Mstr has French drs which open to bkyd w/ sparkling pool & spa. Good-sized kitchen, vintage Wedgewood stove & charming, front-facing breakfast room. Most orig. details intact. Lrg step-down living room has gorgeous, vintage fireplace. Lovely wood floors throughout. Front-facing formal dining room."

Second is 334-15th St., 2 bed, 1 bath, asking $2,295K. Its kitchen is redone and the rest appears nice, on a standard 50 x 150 lot east of 14th, which seems a little more desired. It last sold 3/06/2003 for $1,265K.

"One-of-a-kind Spanish authentically restored & updated on sunny side of one of the most picturesque & quiet blocks North of Montana. (15th Street is 1 of only 3 streets that does not connect through to San Vicente.) Beautiful living room w/ wood-beamed cathedral ceiling, Subzero/Viking/Bosh kitchen, nursery/office. Living space opens onto wood-beamed covered patio & large private backyard. Auxiliary room attached to 2-car garage could be additional office/studio." (County and Zillow call it 3 bedrooms.)

SM Distress Monitor recently profiled 416-17th St., a 2-story 3 bed / 2 bath asking $2,475K (listed 11/29/07 for $2,550K). It also feels in this price category, but with no sale so far.

Then there's our oft-discussed 704-15th St. probate tear-down. It left the MLS at the end of November, but still has as sign out front and is listed on agent Gaby Schkud's website, still asking $1,990K. Waiting for court confirmation, or no takers at this price?


DLP said...

It was interesting how this summer the very high end properties were selling very very well. And luxury goods were still in the black. Now Tiffany is reporting sales are down and American Express customers are going delinquent. (But why was this SOOO AWFULLY predictable??) I read a Fortune Mag blog recently and they were saying to invest in credit card companies because all these broke consumers were going to have to get out their plastic. Ouch. ANd Los Angeles specifically? The perfect storm is brewing. The financial services/mortgage industry has already cut employees and now we have Countrywide about to scorch even more of that earth. The writers guild strike continues -- Warner Brothers laid off 1000 employees on Friday. (You'll find me on the picket lines there on Monday.) And I can betcha that the debt levels of the average Angeleno mirror the rest of the country - no wiggle room.

All we need is an earthquake and it is 1992 redux -- although I would argue this is going to be a lot worse. Bernanke, our cherished leader of the Fed, made the Great Depression his focus while at Princeton. But his theory that the reason things went so sour was because the Fed did not relieve the credit/cash crunch of the time is not looking so reliable.

And the question I still have is -- how many companies (like Sallie Mae) borrowed as recklessly as the Average homeowner because, after all, the money was so cheap, it just made sense, right??

Finally, your man Nouriel quoted as truth in NY Times Sunday Biz section, a reversal from a paper that kept trotting out that idiot Ben Stein to say, "Hey, you can keep buying, don't worry, get a Taco Supreme or something cause those subprimers are just a blip on our otherwise GORGEOUS American economy."

Anonymous said...

yo westside bubble - you wrote the following
Wonder what you get for $12.5M in Beverly Hills or Bel Air?

North side of La Mesa is nice, looking over the country club and maybe even out to a glimse of the ocean, but it is just a big city lot.

westside bubble, pls clarify

what do you mean just a big city lot -

i mean are you suggesting that a normal person would prefer something for 12.5 in BH because the lot is more special somehow - more private - pls be blunt - what is it that you are saying -

and what is your opinion - would a normal person with 12.5 to spend prefer bh or la mesa ?

Westside Bubble said...

Good discussion, DLP. I just saw something about the new role of asset bubbles as the traditional manufacturing business cycle has diminished. Gotta find that again and post something on it.

Anon, I don't know what $12.5M gets in BH or BA. I can imagine something more estate-like in the hills, but don't know what that would cost.

Anonymous said...

it only took the stock market bubble three years to recover (feb. 2003), but a housing bubble is different because of lower liquidity. i expect the fallout to last another 5 years at least, unless the Fed decides to inflate it away, which I think they will do. Watch for continuing lower interest rates, which will spark inflation along with $120+ oil. That will take care of any bubbles, as inflation always does. altho i think Ben is smarter than Alan, so he may handle it flawlessly.

Westside Bubble said...

Anon, the Fed may be unable or unwilling to inflate out of this. See Mish and Charles Hugh Smith for two arguments against inflation.

Anonymous said...

334 15th st. sold 9.2006 for ca. 1.2 mil. turkeys think they'll be cashing in now apparently.

the 231 18TH ST prop last sold in 1972.

thanks for your excellent blog~!

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