Friday, January 18, 2008

Weekly inventory update

1/18 - Santa Santa Monica inventory <$3M is up 6%, Pacific Palisades <$2M up 8%, but Palms-Mar Vista down 5% (perhaps from old listings withdrawn) for the week.

I added back this week from a year ago (1/19/07). SM and PP inventories fell during January 2007, but have been rising so far this January. Year-ago-this-week all inventories were higher, except, strikingly, total PP inventory is much higher this year: 100 vs. 71, all in the higher-priced houses.

1/11 - The number of new or returned listings this week, despite losing a few that seem expired, resulted in Santa Santa Monica inventory <$3M up 12%, Pacific Palisades <$2M up 14%, and Palms-Mar Vista up 9%.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
4/21/06 33,054 35
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/19/07 60 70 115 33 71 69
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 53 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 52 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 68 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/ 4/08 42 0 54 157 21 4 80 101 80 7 106
1/11/08 52,619 48 7 59 145 24 6 90 102 88 19 98
1/18/08 51 10 61 148 26 8 100 97 84 23 99
1/25/08

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

pacific palisades listings are becoming loaded with ridiculously priced homes. and the price of sold homes per sq ft has been over $1000 in both november and december according to DQ News. What gives?

Anonymous said...

looks like the fair balance between buyers and sellers in nov and dec is one thousand a square foot

there were obviously buyers happy to pay that and sellers happy to accept it

the bears say that buyers will refuse to pay that price in 08 and the bulls say that they will

no one knows the future for sure - there are good arguments here

time will tell

Price Stout said...

Question re DOM. Are you correcting for relistings? If so, are you counting the 30 days it was delisted?

If you are not correcting for relistings, then why not? You're DOM will be way low.

Great job.

Anonymous said...

on la mesa a six thousand square foot house sells for ten million bucks

Westside Bubble said...

Are you correcting for relistings?

I count from the first listing date I have, across re-listings, and don't deduct for time off market in between listings or in failed escrows.

on la mesa a six thousand square foot house sells for ten million bucks

Or not. And isn't representative of the rest of Santa Monica.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your comments
this blog is aways perceptive

the houses on north side of la mesa always seemed to sell for over ten million over past few years
are you saying that you think the one there now won't fetch ten million over the next few months


be blunt about what price that will sell for

i mean that is a good benchmark for highest end homes in SM

Anonymous said...

Who is it that is buying in to la mesa at this price level ?

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Anonymous said...

just as an aside, I was just down at Manhattan beach and the prices there make 90402 look like the steal of the century

I mean the standard 90402 lot is 7500 square feet and costs 1.8 million bucks right now.

All in, you pay $250 a square foot for dirt in the 90402

The lots in the sand section of manhattan beach, even with zero view, sell for more than $750 a square foot

All in, for the same size lot you pay more than three times as much in Manhattan beach

I am not predicting a flood of people moving from Manhattan beach sand section to the 90402 the culture of the two places is totally different

but what the HECK is causing such a huge gap ?

Anonymous said...

Manhattan beach attracts professional athletes who want to live there -

professional athletes do *not* live in santa monica

it is just a different type of person in MB vs the 90402

Anonymous said...

Re: Pacific Palisades....the rise in price per sq ft is defying logic. I recognize anon's comments that there is a "fair balance" and a market is being made. But i truly don't get it.

Anonymous said...

I agree one thousand percent.

All logic would indicate that prices in PP should be falling but instead over past few weeks and months they have been going up

there ARE people out there writing checks for houses in PP even today at all time high prices

please please can the posters here explain it to me

Mr.Mortgage said...

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FED Hits Panic Button. Jumbo Loan Rates at Historic Lows.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com/

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Anonymous said...

who is it paying a thousand bucks a square foot

tell us about those buyers

Bernanke has no clothes said...

the only reason it's $1000 a foot in PP (if it really is btw) is because the only things selling (or vast majority of things selling) is BRAND NEW housing. Everything else is reduced 10-20% or isn't selling. Oh, and the brand new isn't selling now either.

Westside Bubble said...

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Anonymous said...

anon, i can't tell you anything about those buyers. the 1000+ price per sq ft comes from DQ News. I have been tracking Pac Pal for over two years. there was a stall but things now have popped up again. I don't have access to all the data so I can't comment on Bernanke's post about new vs. old construction but the little bit that I have seen doesn't totally bear that out. the price declines in PP seem to center on 2 BR homes only. and they are not moving. there have been many homes listed in the last two weeks. I think that Westside might have a more accurate story if her inventory tracking showed listings under 3 million instead of 2 in PP. Anyway, I wish I could give you more info....I am looking to better understand why the prices continue to rise there!!!

Bernanke has no clothes said...

2bd vs others is an interesting angle, but probably more a reflection of no builders or realtor/speculators trying to buy and flip or redo. Who else wants a two bedroom? Not many people.

Also remember that PP "picking back up" is around 15 sales a month so there doesn't need to be many 3.5mil/1000ft purchases to distort the data.

And # houses for sale is up around %30 in a week or so (off for the holidays, coming back on) including what looks to be the start of many realtor/developer deals that are coming back having done no work (couldn't get financing? don't want to?)

Is this finally the end in PP, or will it restart again? Depends if you ask a realtor or an economist.

Anonymous said...

bernanke...i'm no RE cheerleader. sold in pp in '04 for a healthy profit and want to buy again. the sales figures you quote are understated. mid twenties in Dec. and still active. i agree with your teardown/developer comments. for the life of me, i just don't get what is going on there. Wish Westside would devote more to PP than current.

Anonymous said...

or just change the name of the blog to Santa Monica bubble. I'd pick up the slack but i live on the east coast now. IMO, as hard as Westside works on this blog, the best RE blog around is Manhattan Beach Confidential.

Bernanke has no clothes said...

Melissa Data shows 8 houses sold for December... I think what's going on is some people who really don't care about price and a few who are leveraged to the hilt are buying new houses. But it takes a while to find out for how much.

A few houses get purchased (shockingly) but more and more sellers are putting up a fantasy price, hoping for the one magic buyer... more and more they reduce their prices.

There will probably be 100 houses for sale in PP between 1mil and 10,000,000 mil by the end of this week. As I said above, there were 70 a couple weeks ago. PP and Santa Monica are closely tied together. As SM condos and houses go down, so to will PP. And no, it's not different here and no, a rate cut won't help... unless the government figures out how to bring back mindless hysteria.

Anonymous said...

SM is not 'safe for now'. there are plenty of props in foreclosure in SM as we speak. Peter Mullins (AP Real Estate magnate) has 3 props going to trustee sale this month.

notice, folks--the 'new listings' coming onto the MLS are the old expired listings. today 2613 5TH ST (a former 'Mullins Special' listed last summer at ca. $1.6 mil) came back at $1.079 mil with a new agent. the owners can't pay their prop taxes of ca 6.5K/yr.

why why why would anyone list a house today? one reason, folks--they're in trouble. if you check prop taxes as these listings come out, ca. 25% are in default. those that aren't paid no money down, have PMI insurance, so the banks are paying their taxes for them. like the man said, 'deep doo-doo'.