Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Not selling north of Montana

Despite brisk sales in 2007 and the drop in inventory at the end of the year, some hardy properties have still managed to remain unsold. If they faced a lack of buyer interest in 2007, wait'll they face 2008!

Here's the seventh mid-month list of everything north of Montana over 30 days on the market (12/15 previous). Two (re) joined the list and four were removed. We'll see how the list rebuilds next month.

476 26th St., 2 bed/2 bath, $1,795K LP, 11/7/07 LD (red. 8%)
704 15th St., 2/1, $1,990K, 8/22/07 (red. 13%) still listed
754 23rd St., 4/3.5, $2,395K, 9/27/07
416 17th St., 3/2, $2,475K, 11/29/07 (red. 3%) new
317 Alta Ave., 5/3.5, $3,850K, 11/8/07 (red. 4%)
310 22nd St., 5/5.5, $4,395K, 11/6/07
620 Alta Ave., 4/3.5, $5,395K, 10/11/07

Removed listings:
1605 San Vicente Blvd., 6/7, $22,500K, 8/20/07
557 12th St., 6/5.5, $3,495K, 6/4/07 (red. 17%)
1628 Georgina Ave., 4/3, $3,550K, 10/25/07
333 14th St., 5/6, $4,595K, 6/29/07 (red. 6%)


Anonymous said...

Love your blog.

What is the supply of fresh spec homes in 90402 looking like

i mean, drive around the 90402 and look at all the ones under construction

anyone have a sense as to how many are in the pipeline - these are usually 5thousand to 6 thousand square feet - in 06 they routinely went for four to five million

no one knows what they will sell for in 08 but i bet that the more of them there are the cheaper they will sell for

if FEW hit the market perhaps prices will stay up but if MANY hit the market - look out below

Anonymous said...

how many mc mansions ????

WarChestSM said...

The supply of specs is hard to get a handle on because of stealth inventory. Some that didn't sell in the last year or two are being rented out, while I suspect a few others of going off the market to play the "relist in spring" game.

All the 90402 fanatics here (and on my blog) need to relax a bit and just wait a few more months to really get a good picture of what the market is like once all the listings make their way onto market

Anonymous said...

343 21st Pl. (2952 sq. ft./ 7600 lot size) just came on the market for $3.1 -- and went into escrow right away. It looks like attractive homes north of Montana, with good layouts in Franklin School district continue to sell easily. Sure prices will come down some -- but from prices that have obviously been too high. Problem homes will take the biggest hit, as they should.

Susan said...

Wow- it was bound to happen. Anyone who watched the bubble of the 1980's collapse could see it coming.
Hopefully this will means a chance for us to get out of our mold-riddled rent control and into a condo.
Can I ask how you find zero down take-overs around 90403? (Sorry to ask such an obvious question- I'm new at this).

Anonymous said...

if you drive around how many spec homes look close to completion

what i mean is how many will hit market in the next few months?

the benchmark for the 90402 is the price of the newly minted specs

i mean no one could believe it when they started selling above five mil - selling QUICKLY above five - i want to see if they drop to four or to three


Anonymous said...

there seem to be tons and tons of speccies under construction right now

that would argue for a flood of them soon pushing down all the prices


Anonymous said...

spec economics

buy a teardown for 2 mil
spend 1.5 mil to slap up a mcmansion

you are all in for 3.5 and hope to sell for 4.5

repeat often

it is a grrrrreat business as long as it lasts

will it continue to work ?