Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Taken off the market north of Montana

WarChestSM forwarded a flier from a local real estate agent named Amine (first name only) of Coldwell Banker's 1608 Montana Ave. office. Striking is how many houses have been taken off the market. These answer some of the what happened? in our past months' Not selling north of Montana. Because it's an interesting perspective, I'll quote his whole text (emphasis and punctuation in original).

Is our NOMA neighborhood hit by the real estate slowdown?

Our inventory has increased in the last 3 months as we currently have 13 homes listed. With only 11 escrows & the average sales time being 3 months, the pace of sales slowed by 25%. Indeed, only 26 homes sold in the last 5 months!

Prices are steady, but, an unusual trait is taking place (...) many properties go unsold as 17 homes were withdrawn!

Sellers, this is a market where you can easily transfer your current equity to a property with higher long term growth potential (newer or different size property). Buyers, there is plenty to choose from, reasonable prices and a great time to enter the market where lenders will ensure that you do not overextend your finances!

Data compiled as of 12/13/2007 at 12pm.

The "long term growth potential" is a new and original reason to sell; "not overextend your finances" is what we have wanted, but also sure is a creative spin on stricter lending standards!

Here's Amine's list of (actually 16) addresses and prices, with my notes added:


433 12th St., 3 bed/2 bath, $2,240K, LD=4/26, Sold 6/29 $2,160K
447 11th St., 3/2, $2,549K, 8/18, gone ~9/27
1020 San Vicente Bl., 5/3, $2,695K (red. 10%), 7/9, ~8/23 (photo; enlarge)
215 24th St., 4/3.5, $2,795K, ~6/25, ~6/28
249 23rd St., 4/3, $2,898K, 8/7, ~8/14
256 24th St., 3/2, $2,995K, 9/12, ~11/14
1525 Georgina Ave., 4/4, $3,195K (6%), 10/30, ~12/12
703 25th St., 5/5.5, $3,295K, 2/12, ~5/11
721 Georgina Ave., 4/5, $3,450K, 8/21, ~11/5
1609 Georgina Ave., 4/3.75, $3,695K, 10/18, ~11/28
723 22nd St., 4/4.5, $3,995K, 6/22, ~7/3
230 21st Pl., 6/6.5, $4,380K (6%), 3/22, ~9/10
533 23rd St., 5/6, $4,790K, 9/25, Backup 11/16, ~11/21
421 23rd St., 6/6.5, $5,000K, 5/24, ~10/30
127 17th St., 4/4.5, $5,395K, 2/9, ~3/8
147 Georgina Ave., 4/3.5, $7,995K, 10/26, ~11/16

I expected withdrawns in the fall, presumably to relist in the spring. Actuality is more varied, with dates covering much of the year, and circumstances from what must be a change of heart in less than a week (215 24th) to months on the market to price reductions to one with a recorded sale.


Anonymous said...

ok so bottom line is prices are not down more than 10% in the 90402 but this is only cause so many houses were taken off the market

if those houses were left on the market then we would have seen prices down more than ten percent is that the way to interpret this ?

Westside Bubble said...

Likely true. More inventory that needs to be sold should send prices lower.

Anonymous said...

if you read the realestalker you'd know that 147 georgina was jennifer nicholson's. not on the market long, was it? I walked past the back alley shortly after the listing, the backyard was a bit of a jumble with an old mercedes parked there and kid birthday paraphernalia. Didn't look like they really wanted to sell.

Price Stout said...

where lenders will ensure that you do not overextend your finances

That is priceless.

Anonymous said...

Jennifer's house was on a HALF ACRE

that is a pretty massive piece of land in 90402

Just the vacant lot alone might fetch 5.0 mil

don't forget that SIXTH of an acre lots further from the ocean seem to fetch 1.9 million these days

Anonymous said...

well the 90402 lots that sell for 1.9 are 7500 square feet and this lot is 20 thousand square feet so it is almost three times the size of the standard lots we have seen sold

put it another way -

on busy noisy streets in the flat part of the 90402 you can get land for under 270 bucks a square foot but on normal quiet streets i think 270 is the rule

so 20 thousand square feet times 270 is like 5.4 million in land price

That is NOT to say that this piece of land is worth 5.4 or that someone smart would buy it for 5.4, just that based on comps in the past few months 5.4 seems to be the number

do people agree or am i way way off ?

Westside Bubble said...

Maybe. Previously we thought it would take a premium over 2 x $1.9M to get two adjacent lots.

But there's also a value from being able to sell separate houses. The 100'-wide lots west of 7th cannot be split any more (neighbors were afraid of two McMansions on resulting 50' lots), so those may be worth less per square foot.