Saturday, October 18, 2008

Tipping south of Washington

Some of our narratives have become very familiar:

> Los Angeles prices are falling on S&P/Case-Shiller and DataQuick;

> The overall economy has fallen off the cliff created by the credit and housing bubbles;

> But well-priced Westside listings continue to sell at prices plateaued since the last bump up in latter-2005, while others are stuck on the market.

Our interest is indicators that prices are finally falling, and wondering how far and how soon they will bottom.

In the single-family neighborhood bounded by California, Washington, 22nd, and 25th, the ($100K-reduced) $1,299K price of unsold low-end 3 bed / 1.75 bath 1030 Chelsea (photo above) is over $100K below 2007 local comps 1020 Chelsea, $1,478K (photo below), and 1024 23rd, $1,445K. See SM Distress Monitor for more.


Another indicator is 2/2 2312 California (photo above), asking $1,395K (after a quick $100K price cut), that previously sold 7/12/06 for $1,392K.

If low-end 1030 Chelsea and more-fixed-up 2312 California sell for around $1.2M, those are 19% and 14% below their 2007 and 2006 comps, and would represent a rollback to 2004 prices.

Here's the updated recent sales history first posted April 2007:

Current Listings
1030 Chelsea, 3 bed/1.75 bath, LP=$1,299 (-7% from OLP), LD=7/31/08
2312 California, 2/2, $1,395K (-7%), 9/29/08
1024 23rd, 4/4.5, $2,875K, 10/8/08

Failed listings 2008
1015 25th, 2/1, $1,475K, 1/8/08, Expired
2512 California, 3/2, $1,495K, 3/18/08, Withdrawn
2222 Washington, 4/2.75, $1,495K (-12%), 6/25/08, Expired

Sold 2008
1047 Chelsea, 3/1.75, $1,639K, 3/10/08, 6/11/08, $1,585K (-3%)

Sold 2007
1015 25th, 3/1, $1,300K, 1/12/07, $1,200K
1024 23rd, 2/1, $1,499K, 5/29/07, 8/8/07, $1,445K (-4%)
1020 Chelsea, 2/1, $1,399K, 7/6/07, 8/24/07, $1,478K (+6%)
1043 Chelsea, 3/1.5, $1,699K, 3/26/07, 4/9/07, $1,750K (+3%)
1036 22nd, 2/1.25, $1,799K (-14%), 5/4/07, $1,940K (+8%)
1016 25th, 4/3, $2,450K, 7/10/07, 8/30/07, $2,385K (-3%)

Sold 2006
2321 Washington, 2/1, $1,350K, 4/06, 8/8/06, $1,215K (-10%)
2415 Washington, 2/1.5, $1,347K (-4%), 6/06, 11/21/06, $1,347K
2308 California, 2/2, $1,349K, 1/08, 4/14/06, $1,349K
2526 California, 3/2, $1,300K, 1/06, 3/7/06, $1,366K (+5%)
2312 California, 2/1, $1,450K, 5/06, 7/12/06, $1,392K (-4%)
1034 24th, 3/2, $1,695K, 6/06, 10/11/06, $1,525K (-10%)
2421 California, 3/3,,, 3/10/06, $1,865K

Sold 2005
1122 26th, 3/1,,, 11/21/05, $1,220K
1028 23rd, 2/2,,, 7/7/05, $1,295K
2308 Washington, 3/2,,, 8/26/05, $1,350K
1048 25th, 3/2,,, 10/7/05, $1,350K
1043 24th, 2/1,,, 5/4/05, $1,424K
1040 24th, 3/2,,, 8/31/05, $1,595K
1038 25th, 3/2,,, 7/14/05, $1,650K
1025 25th, 3/2,,, 9/13/05, $1,720K
1036 22nd, 2/1,,, 6/14/05, $1,780K

Sold 2004
1022 22nd, 3/2,,, 9/28/04, $1,100K
2201 California, 3/2,,, 7/21/04, $1,144K
2418 Washington, 3/2,,, 1/13/04, $1,204K
2526 California, 3/2,,, 6/18/04, $1,220K
2452 Washington, 2/2,,, 5/24/04, $1,225K
2520 California, 3/2,,, 4/28/04, $1,250K
2512 California, 3/2,,, 7/23/04, $1,250K
1023 22nd, 3/2,,, 10/14/04, $1,250K
1043 25th, 3/2,,, 6/3/04, $1,300K
1043 Chelsea, 2/2,,, 12/1/04, $1,315K
1020 25th, 3/2,,, 7/12/04, $1,475K
1039 25th, 3/2,,, 9/30/04, $1,500K
2307 Washington, 4/3,,, 1/28/04, $1,550K
2512 Washington, 3/2,,, 5/7/04, $1,590K
2312 Washington, 4/3,,, 8/26/04, $1,650K
2436 Washington, 4/3,,, 9/10/04, $1,890K

24 comments:

latesummer2009 said...

Even the mighty can fall. 90402 wll see significant declines in 2009 as Alt-A and Prime Loans begin to reset. Not everyone is uber-wealthy. Just look for the Countrywide, Wachovia and WaMu loans made in the 2003 - 2008 and there will be your foreclosures.

What about the foreclosure on Dewey WB?

Sold 11/06 for 1.1 million
Now listed for 709.5 Thousand
3+2 SFR, FORECLOSURE

latesummer2009 said...

And so it begins in Santa Monica....10/18/08

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Latesummer....will you shut the @&%! up already? All you do is try to advertise your stupid negative mindless blog on this site....what a jerk....

Anonymous said...

Realtor Rage...... Times must be tough!

Anonymous said...

428 SYCAMORE RD / 90402
List Price: $1,850,000
Last Sold 03/14/2007: $1,735,000

Anonymous said...

latesummer, I'm as much of a bear as anybody, but I've got to say, you're really giving the bear case a bad name.

Your hyperbolic, self-promoting, constant posting is doing nothing to move the case forward. All it's doing is msking bears look lobotomized and repetitive.

Please shut up.

Anonymous said...

Yes sir, that guy is a complete douche.

Anonymous said...

I am not a realtor....just trying to get Latesummer off the blog....what a self promoter and a slag.

latesummer2009 said...

We all have our own opinions. Mine happens to be more bearish. If you really looked at the loans getting ready to reset (Alt-As) and paid attention to the months of inventory compared to sales, you might have a better picture. Not to mention our financial system on the brink of failure. Listing prices don't mean a thing. If people aren't getting loans or their payments are increasing while the value drops you get a horrible market. Especially when, people don't have any skin in the game. Jingle Mail, where people walk away, is what you will have.

Pull your head out and look at the facts. Southern California Real Estate in ALL areas will decline at least 50% from the peak, whether you like it or not. Higher end is just the last to fall and often falls the hardest. Granted, many people don't want to hear it. I just happen to think it will happen faster than most people think. Kind of like rats leaving the ship, once it starts sinking

We are unchartered territory here as we have NEVER experienced such an inflated market due to lax creditstandard.

By "Late Summer 2009" after the traditional selling season you will realize what I'm talking about. If you think differently, than state your opinion and back up with data. I would love to hear it. And by the way, why don't you reveal yourself instead of posting anonymously, you cowards.

Anonymous said...

It's not that we don't agree. It's that we don't like the constant, over the top harping, check my blog posts that you've been spreading around.

I agree with your points (I may even go further in some cases). I'm just tired of YOU.

WarChestSM said...

Latesummer,

Nobody here is saying they necessarily disagree with you right now. I think people are just trying to suggest that the constant "and so it begins" and "http://www.westsider..." is a bit much.

Everyone knows you have a website and it seems that you have a good amount of discussion going on there. Congrats. No need to keep up with the over the top advertising though.

Anonymous said...

latesummer

i for one am not irritated by the repetition in your posts

i agree that prices will come down hard in all the nicest areas of the west side

but what is your prediction for construction costs?


i want a house designed to my needs. Even in today's environment when general contractors are desperate for work they are all quoting me around 350 a square foot (it is high end architect quality construction)

so on a five thousand square foot house that means 1.75 million for the construction

do you predict that the construction cost of 5000 square feet will fall from here ? if so what will be the mechanism to do so - materials coming down, labor costs down from where they are today

talk a little about what the next two years will bring to architect quality construction costs

latesummer2009 said...

We are in a de-flationary cycle. That should include labor and construction costs. Over the next year, you should see construction costs drop as work dries up and contractors compete for fewer projects.

I believe 2009 will mark the first real year of dramatic declines on the Westside. 2010 won't be much better. After that, we drag along the botom for years.

If you are in a position to wait, I think you will benefit greatly. IMHO, now is the time to hold instead of build.

Anonymous said...

I agree this latesummer guy is very irritating.

and so it begins.....

Anonymous said...

While driving through Malibu, Pacific Palisades, Santa Monica, and Brentwood yesterday, I noticed a lot of open house, for sale, and for lease signs. The open houses seemed to be open rather late, too.

Does anybody have any anecdotal information to share on this? How was traffic at these numerous open houses? How serious were the lookers, if there were any?

My observation is that the number of open houses and for sale signs was up significantly from two and three months ago, which would (should) have been the peak selling season.

Is there desperation going on in the west side?

We're interested in buying in the area, but are simply waiting for the bubble to deflate.

Anonymous said...

westside bubble-
Is there a lot of money to be made in these westside bubble blogs? You and warchest sure seem to get irritated whenever latesummer2009 posts a link to his blog, as if he's taking food from your mouths.

Maybe that's the next bubble, westside bubble blogs. Get in now or be blogged out forever.

Anonymous said...

anon 1151am or latesummer, whichever you prefer.

I don't see ads on these sites, so I think it has nothing to do with $$. It has to do with the way in which you try to shovel your blog down our throats and its irritating. Your blog has meaningless and minimal stats. You say in your current top post that Beverly Hills average selling price is down 70%. Are you serious? Is Beverly Hills really down 70%? Is that statistic even valid?

...I think not. I am bearish like the next guy here, but your full of it.

Westside Bubble said...

Re: LateSummer2009

I don't have a problem with references back to one's own blog in discussion here - WarChestSM and I do a lot of back-and-forth - if it is done for specific content.

Perhaps more people would engage in conversation on your side, LS, if you posted more often? It's disappointing to follow your link back and find nothing new.

On ad revenue, WarChestSM told me awhile ago the $$ from Google ads were minimal (still true?). I haven't felt like bothering. Hey, if I was into money from what I know I should sell real estate or something! (Trust me, I don't.)

Scooter said...

The funniest thing about this latesummer guy (other than generally parroting blogspeak and misinterpreting data) is that his moniker on the blogs used to be LateSummer2008.

Anonymous said...

My problem with Latesummer, on top of the fact that the advertising it too frequent, is that his blog isn't informative either. He keeps posting macro data about volume that he got somewhere else, over and over.

If he wanted to give us some interesting info, he would do what Westside and Warchest do best: featuring actual listings and sales, complete with pictures, with information about why this is a very interesting case and what it says about a neighborhood. Instead, his posts are reprints and show no insight about or familiarity with particular neighborhoods.

latesummer2009 said...

I don't need to defend myself here. If you don't like my blog, don't look at it. Other bloggers can tell you that ad revenue is minimal and is not the primary reason for doing this. I worked in the RE industry during the last boom and bust and I see whats coming. The more information you have, the better off you are. If you don't think Sales Volume and Selling Prices are important than, you obviously don't know much about the Real Estate Business. I choose to look at the Macro Picture because it has a huge effect on local markets. Such as loan resetting. The problem is people can get caught up in their own neighborhood and become myopic. Yes local markets are important and I think WB and SM Distress do a great job at analyzing it. My format is a bit different and I put forth numbers that are worth discussing.

Unfortunately, some people like using blogs for faceless attacks anonymously on people they disagree with. Try debating, without hating.

As for Latesummer2008, I began writing about RE in San Diego County and the market is a year ahead of here. Buyers are now finding discounts in excess of 50% there. Perhaps you might look at affluent areas there and see what could be in store. Once I started writing about RE in Los Angeles I changed it to Latesummer2009.

Lastly, WB I respect that you encourage other bloggers on your site. I do the same. I have both Westside Bubble and SM Distress linked on mine along with several other blogs. Perhaps others should start their own blogs instead of just criticizing us that do.

Anonymous said...

"The funniest thing about this latesummer guy (other than generally parroting blogspeak and misinterpreting data) is that his moniker on the blogs used to be LateSummer2008."

Yeah, almost as funny as a 22 year old calling himself "warchest".

Anonymous said...

Get off the dude's case you whiners. You didn't step up and start your own blog, so all you get to do is throw your 2 cents in on the posting section. At least Latesummer is putting his thoughts out there and trying to get people to check them out. Despite the anonymity, it still takes courage to open up your ideas an number crunching to scrutiny.

Just call me Maria said...

Hey- i put my blog out there- but I don't update often