Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Santa Monica listings <$3M down

I've been curious to dig deeper into the reasons behind Santa Monica's current inventory levels. For starters, above is a new format of my familiar monthly chart of inventory for SFRs asking below $3M in Santa Monica (excluding Santa Monica Canyon in 90402, which is in Los Angeles). Inventory this year is above 2007 but below 2006 and declining, in contrast to record inventory in Pacific Palisades.

In the same format and vertical scale, above are sales. They range from a little below to well below the last two years.

Significant is how new listings are so far below the last two years.

And finally, Withdrawn and Expired listings are up, even topping sales for August. (I don't have good data on these before 2008.)

So inventory is down both because fewer owners are listing and more listings are terminating unsold.

Which suggests many will try again to sell next spring, expecting things to pick up, but which could bring a glut of listings and falling prices if the economy is no better.

40 comments:

rosebud said...

Hey Westside, are all the sales in for September? or are there a few more that are yet to hit the publically available sites?

lap2 said...

Westside - fantastic info, great job!!!!!!!!!
It would be great if you wouldn't exclude, or possibly, do the one for over 3Mil.

Westside Bubble said...

Yes, I think that's everything from the MLS through right now.

Don't forget, you can substitute any MLS# into the Client Detail query for its current status.

Ok, lap2, I'll do that too. I didn't start tracking higher-priced Santa Monica until September 2006, a reason I've continued to use the <$3M.

Anonymous said...

maybe soon everyone will be broke, jobless, and houses in santa monica will cost $10,000, and then you'll be happy....

Anonymous said...

Yes, I'll be happy. I came from East coast with plenty of cash, and predicted that the prices are overvalued in 2004. I have been renting despite ability to buy. Yss, I will jump into the market in another year or two, and in the mean time a total collapse is something that I am expecting -- the worse the better... People who have positive savings should be rewarded, rather than bailing out people who went over their heads (the so called "homeowners" with negative net worth...)

Anonymous said...

There are plenty of empty houses in the inland empire that can be purchased for 200 thousand dollars


I would like to see the people who are today renting in SM who complain that they can't afford a house to move to the Inland Empire where they can afford a house.

There is too much anger and despair among those people that live in apartments in SM who complain all the time that they can't afford an SFR in SM

Too much class envy kills the vibe in SM.

too much anger.

SM would be a much better place if there was less complaining and more enjoying what we have

Anonymous said...

"Too much class envy kills the vibe in SM.

too much anger.

SM would be a much better place if there was less complaining and more enjoying what we have"

The "vibe" in Santa Monica seems to be elitism, racism, bigotry, and just plain old snobbery.

Reading these Westside related boards gives me the distinct impression that the best thing that could happen to the beach communities is that a huge tsunami hits the coast and drowns all of you arrogant idiots.

You people have ruined the Westside with your pretension and belief that you are some how special.

FU

Anonymous said...

Hey Anonymous October 2, 2008 7:11 AM,

We're waiting for the day (coming sooner than you expect) to buy your home for pennies on the dollar. Those homes in the IE are being reserved for you.

We'll see who's angry then...

Anonymous said...

I like these charts waaayyyy better than those lame case schiller charts.

Anonymous said...

I agree with anon 7:11....what a load of wannabes living in SM rentals. Sitting on their fat cash reserves, hoping it will all crumble down 50%...

Can't you people realize you didn't buy 15 years ago and now you are screwed? Timing is what you lacked and now you live in fear you'll miss out again...hence this whole blog's being.

Get thee to the I.E. pronto...losers.

Anonymous said...

Amen to that. Long live the Santa Monica homeowners!

NeedleBrain4aPopped Bubble said...

IF SM real property can withstand this credit onslaught for another year, it will be the best asset class (beside Berkshire Hathaway B shares) ever!

Independent of, inversely related to, or disconnected from (1) credit conditions, (2) asset pricing of other real estate, and (3) the American economy in general. Sort of like Disneyland. With the various brokers acting as the costumed critters, cheering on the ever-so-smart holders.

However, if it cracks, especially because several owners actually want to sell at the same time, prices will quick reverse, probably falling 40% or so like a mid tier bank stock (rather than Lehman Bros.)

westside resident said...

The "Westside" includes a lot more zipcodes than Santa Monica.

I lived on the "Westside" for over 40 years (not in S.M.) and I never ever got the impression that there was anything special about Santa Monica.

The name of this blog should be changed to "90402".

Why aren't all of you "Santa Monica RE will never fall in value" people over at Santa Monica Distress Monitor?

Mar Vista, Palms, West L.A., MDR and Venice all are on the westside.

Oh, that's right, we're snobs here and we don't talk about those zips where the rich and fashionable wouldn't be caught dead.

Believe it or not, not everyone wants to own in Santa Monica.

Anonymous said...

'Why aren't all of you "Santa Monica RE will never fall in value" people over at Santa Monica Distress Monitor?

Mar Vista, Palms, West L.A., MDR and Venice all are on the westside.

Oh, that's right, we're snobs here and we don't talk about those zips where the rich and fashionable wouldn't be caught dead.

Believe it or not, not everyone wants to own in Santa Monica."

....Then why are you on this blog?

Anonymous said...

"....Then why are you on this blog?"

This blog is only for Santa Monica?

Anonymous said...

Hey - take a look at the LA murder map (on the police department web site)

it CLEARLY shows that mar vista, palms, Marina Del Rey and Venice haver MUCH MUCH higher violent crime rates than north santa monica

so you ask why we want to live in north santa monica take a look

why the HECK would we want to subject our toddlers to living in a higher crime hood when a lower crime hood is available ?

Anonymous said...

ok - so a house sells in north santa monica for seven million - all cash - and the renters on this board scream that they will be able to buy houses for pennies on the dollar -

this picture does not compute - if there are buyers at seven million why will houses sell for pennies on the dollar ?

Anonymous said...

Don't ask stupid question like 'why would renters want to buy houses for pennies on the dollar'.....if you are a renter in SM past age 35...something is not right.

Anonymous said...

westside bubble:

Please change the name of this blog to:

"Santa Monica Housing Boom; Why SM housing will never go down in value"

Anonymous said...

Santa Monica is about peace and love and good vibes. Hiking, surfing, eating organic and living healthy.

Walking around with a smile on your face and good will in your heart.

Why must we have the anger and bitterness on this blog?

Plenty of places combine good vibes with sky high real estate prices. People in other places just accept it and live their lives.

Why is there so much hate here ?

Mr.Mortgage said...

We just posted one the most comprehensive slideshows on the meltdown we have seen to date.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

if you are a renter in SM past age 35...something is not right.


And it's partially this mentality that led to the credit crisis.

Not everyone needs to be (or should feel badly about being) a renter!

[And yes, I am a current renter, but have owned several places in the past]

Anonymous said...

--"Santa Monica is about peace and love and good vibes. Hiking, surfing, eating organic and living healthy.

Walking around with a smile on your face and good will in your heart."--

Is this "good will" and "love" extended to Sarah Palin and John McCain supporters? How about conservative Republicans?

What about those that are voting "Yes" on Prop 8 (banning gay marriage) and who want to overturn Roe v Wade?

I'm glad that Santa Monica has room under the tent for ALL people including Evangelical Christians.

May the Lord bless you.

Anonymous said...

Santa Monica as well as all of the Westside is a beautiful place to live. I too live on the Westside but the problem is we in California have to come together.

Arnie just announced he needs $7 billion or the California runs out of money on Sep. 29th. I look at 90402 and 90210 and other zip codes and I see a lot of tax lien foreclosures.

People, please pay your property taxes and help our great State of California keep from becoming insulvent, otherwise sell your property to someone who can. Even if it means lowering your price!

Sorry for the bad news.

Anonymous said...

The reason taxes are so high is cause liberals like you invited all those illegals to move to Los Angeles.

The taxes paid by the illegals can't even begin to cover the medical bills they rack up and the cost to educate all the kids they enroll in the schools.

Shame on you liberals for bankrupting our state. You deserve the crummy public schools for your children in South Santa Monica and in Venice - you caused the crummy schools with your immigration policies.

You reap what you sow

Anonymous said...

yes! nothing like a little racism to start your weekend

Anonymous said...

Santa Monica is very Anti-Republican....I feel like if I put a McCain/Palin sticker on the back of my car....I would get harrassed....isn't that discrimination?

Anonymous said...

"Shame on you liberals for bankrupting our state."

Hmm. Don't we have a Republican governor in this our bankrupt state?

Anonymous said...

What's wrong with discriminating against Republicans? After all, they have Manhattan Beach.

Anonymous said...

wow

isn't it strange that manhattan beach has no homeless, and the beach is spotless.

and santa monica is full of homeless and the beach is filthy

hmm perhaps it's cause liberals like you filth up santa monica ?

hmm

latesummer2009 said...

I hate to burst bubbles, but Santa Monica has 109 properties in some phase of foreclosure the last time I looked.

Not exactly a healthy market.

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

I can smell this hateful tone. I do not know if it is the same guy as last time, but it is the same dark spirit. I recommend he begin his own 'santa monica is a hellhole of liberals' blog and he remain on-topic over here. I am certain he would find a captive audience at the Promenade or the Venice Beach walkway. Set up a table, put up some pictures, get a PA, and spread your message.

Am I wrong, but have republicans lost the fiscal conservative claim? Wouldn't some potentially inefficient government program here, some taxing there, & some regulation be significantly less costly than the enormous & protracted cost of the deficit, iraq war, and wall-street bailouts that will burden americans for a decade, if not several? As of now, this burden is several trillion. And the frustrating thing is that we pay for this. We are not safer. We are not energy depedent. And yet, it is still the liberals' fault. Republicans have been at the helm. Am I naieve and stupid? What am I not getting?

These are rhetorical questions. I do not want to taint this invaluable real estate blog any further. On one hand, I find it highly intriguing that it gets to this, because in a sense it is all related. I respond, because I cannot allow the off-topic mean-spirited diatribe to go unanswered. I ask that it stay on topic, and be more specific, and to reduce the generalized, unsupported attacks. Please make on-topic, cogent arguments. Please.

Anonymous said...

12:55AM
--"...I do not want to taint this invaluable real estate blog any further...

Please make on-topic, cogent arguments. Please."--

Then why don't you practice what you preach?

Anonymous said...

I love the Federal Government! They just slashed my mortgage by 50%!!!!!!

Yep, this is a great communistic country.

So glad I am a homeowner and not a renter....the Feds don't give a toss about them....

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