Tuesday, September 30, 2008

July S&P/Case-Shiller

Another month, another drop on today's July 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers. It took six years for Los Angeles (black line, includes Orange County) to fall 27.1% from 1990 to 1996, but now less than two years to fall 29.7% from its peak in September 2006.

By month that's 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 21.1% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $389,798, $389,798 - $586,485, and Over $586,485; updated for July). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 40.5%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another .3% to 20.5% from its June 2006 peak.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

this is fascinating

i can say that from my observations single family homes in malibu and in venice are down big

in pp down small

and in santa monica they don't seem to be down much

it is strange why should the dynamics in sm be so much different than malibu and venice

Anonymous said...

Well- for our family SM/Malibu have desirable schools, PP slightly less desirable, Venice schools not desirable at all.

Anonymous said...

but i don't know anyone in pp or sm that sends their kids to public schools. so why would it matter?

north said...

whoever posted all the info on this house, did not have the correct house!!!!
i know the house you were speaking of, and you were right about that one...
however, wrong on the real mccoy....not even a tear down
i know for a FACT

Anonymous said...

this is NOT fascinating....this is boring....why do you have to try to always put something in a box? RE is too fluid for that.

Anonymous said...

Are you kidding about people NOT sending their kids to public scholl in SM?

If you graduate the top 5% of your class at SAMO, you are almost guaranteed a spot at UC Berkeley or UCLA....This is due to a state requirement that shows preferential placement of kids to CSU and UC colleges from PUBLIC schools. That is not so at the posh private schools in L.A. So you would be a fool to pay 30K/yr and still have your kid go to SMC....

Anonymous said...

i agree it if you want to get your kid in to a top UC school then public high school is the way to go

that being said,
PP high school has huge numbers of kids bussed in from Compton and other such places. I personally love diversity and think it enriches everyone but many parents reject pp high due to the bussing

SAMO has issues that i don't need to discuss

Beverly Hills High has issues

it seems that if you want a public high school with the absolute lowest level of diversity possible then manhattan beach is the way to go

Anonymous said...

*yawn*

wake me up when houses go down a nickel in Santa Monica, where the Bubble rages on

Lionel said...

anonymous said...
but i don't know anyone in pp or sm that sends their kids to public schools. so why would it matter?

September 30, 2008 5:18 PM

The majority of my friends in the Palisades send their kids to public elementary schools. Paul Revere is when they decide to shell out the big bucks. As the economy tightens, however, I think we'll see a major trend back to public middle to high schools.

Scooter said...

If everything has declined on the high, mid and low tiers, then will somebody please explain to me the recent activity in Westwood SFH's.

Look here:
http://www.thewestwoodblog.com/

This is not north of montana. Are these representative examples?

Is there something about the 1.0-1.25 million price point and costs to own relative to rent that make this segment relatively strong. Are people in Westwood crazy ?

Anonymous said...

Scooter,

Looking at that chart, it appears that prices in Westwood Hills are more attractive than the rest on the chart, especially when you take into account the neighborhood.

There could be a number of asians taking money out of their banks and markets and investing in US real estate for when their kids go to college here.

Anonymous said...

yes - westwood hills get to send their kids to warner avenue school -

well known to be the finest public primary school in Los Angeles (almost as good as the primary schools in 90402 or MB )

Anonymous said...

is 90402 holding up better than 90403 SFR>?

Richard Mason said...

Thanks for the new format. I find it much easier to read.

Richard Mason said...

Obviously, I mean the new format of the charts in the other thread. Gah.