Friday, September 19, 2008

Melissa sales by zip code

Here's an update on the May post of Melissa Data (a mailing list vendor) counts of "new homeowners" by zip code for north-of-Montana 90402, Ocean-Sunset Park 90405, and Mar Vista 90066.

They have the same problem as DataQuick's monthly sales-by-zip-code the LA Times reports, of spiky changes based on few sales of varying prices. If you eyeball them, what price trend do you see?


Anonymous said...

Looks as if prices in 90402 have leveled off, 90405 are declining, and 90066 have leveled off and is leaning to decline. The # sold is definitely declining all around. That will put a negative impact on future prices.

Anonymous said...

This is VERY helpful
exactly the data that is most interesting
thank you much!

Anonymous said...

The rules of the game have just changed. The Federal Government now owns a big chunk of Wall Street.

If anyone thinks that the old ways will return (liar loans, RE on helium prices), you are an idiot.

If you bought anything since the beginning of the bubble, I hope you intend to keep your house for a long time.

Just wait until all of the millions of baby booming parents start to sell their homes.

Given that no one has any money to lend right now, I think that the word "glut" takes on a new meaning.

But of course places like New York and London won't be affected. They have all of those high paid financial sector workers just reeling in the dough!

Yessir, this is BOOM time!

I heard the Russian stock market is the place to be! The foreigners will come and save the day in 90402 since they are bursting with money right now.

Anonymous said...

Why haven't 90066 prices fallen yet!?

Anonymous said...

If people ares substituting Mar Vista for Sunset Park it would explain both trends. North of Montana is obviously a different type of neighborhood.

Anonymous said...

RE: Anonymous September 19, 2008 3:46 PM,

There will be a lot of substituting in the coming years. Some will be able to substitute for smaller, cheaper homes, and others will have to substitute for renting.

Liquidity Trap / Deflationary Spriral

Anonymous said...

uh, is this a trick question.....?

latesummer2009 said...

Great post WB. Trends are what's most important now. Looks as if all trends are either flat or down in both price and volume, once you take out the seasonal noise.

The question is, given those facts, why would someone risk money in RE given all of the negative headwinds? DENIAL...

buyers can smell the blood in the water. Be patient...

Anonymous said...

Does anyone have thoughts on what the Government Rescue/Intervention imply for Westside real estate? It seems that things have gone along the path of Bears' predictions. However, from what I read, these Bailouts, especially this big $500B one coming up, were unexpected. Obviously, the cards in the house were falling. But, it seems they are being propped up. Which, while supports a 'liar' system, its intention - i hope - is to reduce pain on 'main street'. Doctors attempt to save even heavy smokers from cardiac arrest.

Continuing the analogy, a heavy smoker following a cardiac arrest rescue is not going to go run a 5, or even 6 minute mile, for some time.

And so, currently the answer I'd give to the question I posed is, the government rescue has prevented the natural course of things, & so home prices will be buoyed higher than they 'naturally' should go, but it will stay like that for a longer time than would have been otherwise expected.

I am more interested in hearing what the 'collective brain power' on this invaluable blog believe.
(By the way, my career has nothing to do with any sort of market, and so my thoughts are pretty useless.)

rosebud said...

This data from melissadata includes SFR's and condos grouped together, right? So the zips with higher condo mixes are showing more drag on these charts?