Tuesday, December 9, 2008

North of Montana <$3M outcomes update

I received an email from "E" asking, "Can you do a post summarizing all the lower-end 90402 that have closed in November / December, in the midst of all this equity market turmoil?"

It's been some time since our July list of outcomes, and some of you can never get enough of 90402, so it's timely to give an update of all the MLS listings I've tracked (in order of final listing price). Note all the recently-Withdrawn listings, that may dump back on the market next spring.

Sold

476 26th, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$1,685K (-14% from OLP), OLD=11/7/07, SD=5/28/08, SP=$1,575K (-7% from LP)
420 7th, 2/2, $1,699K (-8%), 2/8/08, 9/29/08, $1,600K (-6%)
1140 San Vicente, lot, $1,895K (-14%), 1/30/08, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
704 15th, 2/1, $1,990K (-13%), 8/22/07, 2/25/08, $2,100K (+6%)
517 Euclid, 5/2, $2,139K (-3%), 4/19/08, 8/8/08, $2,079K (-3%)
460 Lincoln, 3/3, $2,195K (-8%), 4/14/08, 11/21/08, $1,900K (-13%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,195K, 1/28/08, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
710 19th, 3/2, $2,295K (-8%), 3/10/08, 7/19/08, $2,086K (-9%)
334 15th, 2/1, $2,295K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,400K (+5%)
249 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 4/10/08, 5/28/08, $2,500K (+6%)
231 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,325K (-1%)
402 19th, 2/2, $2,325K, 9/4/08, 12/4/08, $2,215K (-5%)
751 24th, 5/5, $2,350K, 9/10/08, 11/12/08, $2,254K (-4%)
416 21st Place (photo), 3/1.75, $2,375K, 9/4/08, 10/31/08, $2,185K (-8%)
423 15th, 3/1.75, $2,379K, 7/9/08, 10/15/08, $2,365K (-1%)
447 11th, 3/2, $2,385K (-6%), 8/18/07, 4/15/08, $2,385K
626 19th, 4/3, $2,389K, 6/13/08, 8/15/08, $2,401K (+1%)
327 21st, 3/2, $2,395K, 6/12/08, 7/2/08, $2,300K (-4%)
416 17th, 3/2, $2,399K (-6%), 11/29/07, 2/26/08, $2,360K (-2%)
701 20th, 3/3.5, $2,595K, 3/24/08, 5/20/08, $2,500K (-4%)
316 18th, 3/1.75, $2,598K, 2/8/08, 3/28/08, $2,415K (-7%)
238 17th, 4/3.5, $2,635K (-2%), 3/11/08, 6/20/08, $2,550K (-3%)
241 24th, 3/2, $2,695K (-7%), 1/9/08, 4/15/08, $2,695K
214 Euclid, 3/2, $2,700K, 4/4/08, 5/22/08, $3,350K (+24%)
633 Euclid, 4/3, $2,750K, 4/22/08, 7/25/08, $2,675K (-3%)
1230 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K, 9/18/08, 11/25/08, $2,810K (-3%)
303 22nd, 3/3, $2,895K, 6/23/08, 8/21/08, $3,000K (+4%)
621 19th, 3/2.5, $2,895K, 3/8/08, 6/9/08, $2,675K (-8%)
234 Alta, 3/3, $2,980K, 3/14/08, 8/7/08, $2,675K (-10%)
710 23rd, 4/3, $2,999K (-9%), 7/13/07, 4/29/08, $2,900K (-3%)

Sale Pending

534 19th, 2/2, $2,250K, 9/3/08, Looking for Backup 10/12/08

Expired or Withdrawn

426 4th, 3/3, $1,929K, 10/17/08, Withdrawn 11/18/08
733 20th, 3/2, $2,099K, 10/27/08, Withdrawn 12/3/08
702 11th, 3/2, $2,169K, 5/29/08, Withdrawn 7/24/08
517 14th, 3/2.75, $2,198K (-8%) 5/1/08, Withdrawn 11/21/08
754 23rd, 4/3.5, $2,279K (-15%), 6/8/06, Expired
738 22nd, 3/2.5, $2,395K, 2/11/08, Expired
1020 San Vicente, 5/4.5, $2,665K (-11%), 7/9/07, Expired
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08, Withdrawn 11/3/08
212 24th, 3/3.5, $2,795K (-11%), 5/30/08, Withdrawn 12/5/08

(LP=latest List Price; OLP=Original List Price; OLD=Original Listing Date, across re-listings; SD=Sale Date; SP=Sale Price)

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Ving Rhames house at 751 24th looks like the best bargain in this list

a 5 / 5 for that little money in GRS is a good deal

Is this on MLS - it is hard to find info on it

dwr said...

754 23rd expired yet again, after dropping the price down to under $2.3MM. I checked out Westside Bubble's post on that property from October 2007, and I found these comments from rosebud to be quite amusing:

"Looks like a good discount is priced in for the location... 4 beds, 3,300 sf, for 2.4 MM. Traffic from the school is not bad since the morning dropoff is on the Idaho side of the school. Plus, it's an elementary school (one of the best in the state), so the littering and loitering is truly non-existent.

Doesn't have the greatest interior, but one could work with it, and again, it's big without the footprint taking the whole lot. Also, the city has no limit as to how high alley facing hedges can be, so your apartment dweller worries could go away pretty fast too.

Since the reality is that there are 31 homes to choose from North of Wilshire, and most of us couldn't get into the 2 that are North of San Vicente, this is a decent deal.

Good inventory graphs, Westside. There's not much to choose from in SM generally, and North SM in particular; these homeowners simply aren't forced to sell. They don't face the same market pressures that the majority of country does...

October 2, 2007 10:41 AM"

Anonymous said...

Westside, I know these reports and probably useful to some and probably mean something to someone who knows what they're looking for . . . but for the rest of us, could you please add a bit of your own commentary to go with some of your posts? For example, on this one, could you just say what you think the trend indicates, or what (if anything) you found interesting in the results? I am sure you have an opinion, it would be nice to hear it since this is a blog and all!

Arti

Anonymous said...

westside

i disagree

you dont have to feel obligated to post an opinion when you dont want to

i am happy to have some posts with no comments and some with comments

if you want to let the data speak for itself that is good enough for me

Westside Bubble said...

could you please add a bit of your own commentary to go with some of your posts?

Arti, I do sometimes, like Tipped south of Washington, North of Montana index, and New low-end north of Montana in November.

Sometimes I'm in the mood for just data (like yesterday), other times more for analysis. These observations from November won't change much until spring, so they're still relevant.

Westside Bubble said...

Anon, here's the MLS# 08-312325 link for 751 24th.

rosebud said...

Hey dwr, thanks for the repost. Looks like I was responding to some specific comments about location, school traffic, etc. Also looks like I was wrong on that house. To be clear, I've been wrong about many individual houses... for instance, I didn't expect the $5MM new house on 25th and Marguerita to sell so quickly, at such a price. Or 423 25th and 402 19th to sell at those prices in the last month and a half. If I didn't think they would, I have to imagine you're even more shocked, right?

The other amusing thing from that post is that there are now 39 homes to choose from North of Montana. More than before, certainly... but not really the glut of inventory we see elsewhere... don't you think?

For 754 23rd, perhaps there are things we don't know about? Especially considering 751 24th sold for nearly $2.3MM while it is also on the corner of Montana, and on a busier street.

Again, thanks for the repost; not sure I deserve that much real estate on this blog (although it too seems to be valuable real estate) ;)

dwr said...

"The other amusing thing from that post is that there are now 39 homes to choose from North of Montana."

You're comparing December to October, I'm not sure what your point is. Also, in your previous post you said there were 31 houses for sale "North of Wilshire", not NOM. So you're comparing two different months, and different regions?

"Looks like I was responding to some specific comments about location, school traffic, etc."

It looked to me like you called it a good deal, when it's probably 20% below that price today.

Anonymous said...

Comparing dec 2008 to oct 2007 even if it is two different months is relevant. We are in a very different place since 2007, just look at those sales prices from earlier in 2008. However, there is not a significant amount of <3mm inventory in 90402 right now, and no real attractive properties. I think its a little unfair to rosebud to be calling out a comment from him/her over a year ago, I think everyone's view on real estate has changed to some extent over the last couple months.

Westside Bubble said...

For an approximation of 90402 inventory now vs. a year ago you could use the Santa Monica Inventory >$3M chart, which is nearly twice what it was a year ago.

dwr said...

"Comparing dec 2008 to oct 2007 even if it is two different months is relevant."

That's persuasive.

"I think everyone's view on real estate has changed to some extent over the last couple months."

Says you.

rosebud said...

Hey dwr, good point on the inventory; I didn't even notice that in re-reading. Total North of Wilshire is 52 right now. If you really want to dive deeper, notice that that there were 2 North of San Vicente at the time of that post, while there are now 7, as well as a greater invevntory in 90403.

Just to clarify and look at apples to apples... WB, I'm assuming your numbers count the canyon as well? I've never included that since I think it's a different neighborhood appealing to a different buyer.

dwr, The point was to look at year over year inventory levels, and that for a place with about 6,000 homes, it's still not very high. And again, yes, without a doubt, I called that house incorrectly. Apologies. But the fact that these folks could let it expire, and not settle for a price that they didn't want, lends creedence to the notion espoused in my post from last year.

Obviously, feel free to disagree and cite the comps that bolster your 20% less theory. And feel free to repost this when it hits the fan for these folks and they're forced to sell for $250k. (and thanks, anon.)

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

The story has not yet been written on the land value between Montana and San Vicente.

My dream is to buy a piece of land there for a price I can afford but so far no dice

Bears, i am with ya in prayer

dwr said...

"dwr, The point was to look at year over year inventory levels, and that for a place with about 6,000 homes, it's still not very high."

And to do so, you would compare December 2008 with December 2007, correct?

"And again, yes, without a doubt, I called that house incorrectly. Apologies."

No need to apologize. You're obviously bullish on 90402, and I like to point out how wrong the bulls have been, and will likely continue to be for some time. That's all.

dwr said...

"And feel free to repost this when it hits the fan for these folks and they're forced to sell for $250k."

No one ever said it would eventually sell for $250K, but your opinion that is was a good buy at $2.4MM a year ago is almost that silly.

Westside Bubble said...

WB, I'm assuming your numbers count the canyon as well? I've never included that since I think it's a different neighborhood appealing to a different buyer.

No, I've always only counted what's within the City of Santa Monica, not the "Santa Monica Post Office" 90402 part of the canyon.

Anonymous said...

To sum all this horseshit up....there is no recession in 90402.

Anonymous said...

The canyon is not North of Montana.
this discussion is just about North of Montana. Do not count the canyon

Anonymous said...

Is Ving still living at 751 or has he moved on >?

Anonymous said...

Back in the bubble times some people bought in to the 90402 at ten times their income

today people are prudent and are paying five times their income

that means that today the people buying $2 million houses in 90402 have 400k net income

i don't think anyone will deny that the house to income ratio is way way down

Anonymous said...

Check out the news on Madoff - should have a big impact North of Montana - many of his clients live North of Montana

Anonymous said...

No recession in 90402?

I didn't know that 90402 was a country!

What a bunch of freakin idiots on this blog.

It's amusing to see the fools rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic AFTER it hit the iceberg.

Hint: Read the news. It's really bad and getting worse.

LateSummer1996 said...

"What a bunch of freakin idiots on this blog. "

- Since you posted on this blog that would imply that you include yourself in this category.

D'oh ! I guess I'm an idiot for replying.

Anonymous said...

Go walk around these houses N of Montana - contrast the neighborhood with the skanky slummy neighborhood around Hollister

totally different experience

they shouldn't even be in the same city - totally totally different character of the two neighborhoods

Anonymous said...

North of Montana is better than Brentwood

this is proven by the tragic passing of Dakota Culkin

Just google it - step off the curb for one instant in a place like Brentwood (step on to San Vicente where cars zoom by) and bam you are gone

step off the curb on Montana and you are just fine

cars on montana go slowly compared to on san vicente

look it up and educate yourself when you choose between n of montana and brentwood

Anonymous said...

The actual death of Dakota happened in the marina.

And the traffic death rate on San Vicente is much much greater than on Montana

Anonymous said...

And neither traffic death rate is of note.