Monday, July 21, 2008

North of Montana outcomes <$3M

Reader comments yesterday led to this: first, a list of all the outcomes I've been able to find for houses formerly listed in 2008, and second, how many of those are expired or withdrawn? I'll break it down by area, and for north of Montana, by price.

Clearly the lower-priced north of Montana houses (like 231 18th, photo above) sold quickly during the first half of 2008, typically for $2.3M+. Tear-down value is less clear, with few data points. Update: 710 19th Street may be a new one at $2,086K.

Striking was 214 Euclid, 3/2, asking $2,700 but sold for $3,350K. Described as, "Once in a lifetime chance to build a dream home on a rare 1+1/2 lot - in prime Santa Monica. First time on market in 42 years", this is a data point for those here seeking double lots.

As some comparison, on May 20 when I last listed houses north of Montana over 30 days there were 21.

(LP=latest List Price; OLP=Original List Price; OLD=Original Listing Date, across re-listings; SD=Sale Date; SP=Sale Price)


476 26th, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$1,685K (-14% from OLP), OLD=11/7/07, SD=5/28/08, SP=$1,575K (-7% from LP)
1140 San Vicente, lot, $1,895K (-14%), 1/30/08, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
704 15th, 2/1, $1,990K (-13%), 8/22/07, 2/25/08, $2,100K (+6%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,195K, 1/28/08, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
710 19th, 3/2, $2,295K (-8%), 3/10/08, 7/19/08, $2,086K (-9%)
334 15th, 2/1, $2,295K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,400K (+5%)
249 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 4/10/08, 5/28/08, $2,500K (+6%)
231 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,325K (-1%)
447 11th, 3/2, $2,385K (-6%), 8/18/07, 4/15/08, $2,385K
327 21st, 3/2, $2,395K, 6/12/08, 7/2/08, $2,300K (-4%)
416 17th, 3/2, $2,399K (-6%), 11/29/07, 2/26/08, $2,360K (-2%)
701 20th, 3/3.5, $2,595K, 3/24/08, 5/20/08, $2,500K (-4%)
316 18th, 3/1.75, $2,598K, 2/8/08, 3/28/08, $2,415K (-7%)
238 17th, 4/3.5, $2,635K (-2%), 3/11/08, 6/20/08, $2,550K (-3%)
241 24th, 3/2, $2,695K (-7%), 1/9/08, 4/15/08, $2,695K
214 Euclid, 3/2, $2,700K, 4/4/08, 5/22/08, $3,350K (+24%)
621 19th, 3/2.5, $2,895K, 3/8/08, 6/9/08, $2,675K (-8%)
710 23rd, 4/3, $2,999K (-9%), 7/13/07, 4/29/08, $2,900K (-3%)

Sale Pending

517 Euclid, 5/2, $2,139K (-3%), 4/19/08, Pending 6/6/08
626 19th, 4/3, $2,389K, 6/13/08, Pending 7/1/08
633 Euclid, 4/3, $2,750K, 4/22/08, 6/3/08, Pending 5/29/08
303 22nd, 3/3, $2,895K, 6/23/08, Pending 7/7/08
234 Alta, 3/3, $2,980K, 3/14/08, Pending 4/14/08

Expired or Withdrawn

754 23rd, 4/3.5, $2,279K (-15%), 6/8/06, Expired
460 Lincoln, 3/3, $2,395K, 4/14/08, Withdrawn 6/9/08
738 22nd (photo below), 3/2.5, $2,395K, 2/11/08, Expired
1020 San Vicente, 5/4.5, $2,665K (-11%), 7/9/07, Expired


Anonymous said...

Wow, even in a real estate depression, PRSM makes Manhattan look like the wrong side of the tracks...California Rules!!!!!

Anonymous said...


That's alot stronger than I expected.


Anonymous said...

808 Adelaide is now listed on the MLS in the Pacific Palisades section. Is this a new technique for stale listings?...actually changing the location?

Anonymous said...

North of Montana homes are completely immune to economic recessions and even housing depressions. If a nuclear bomb went off, prices would merely level for a while before starting to go up again. You can wait all you want, all you're doing is pricing yourself from north of Montana forever. Buy now and you'll be able to double your money in just a few years.

Anonymous said...

"327 21st, 3/2, $2,395K, 6/12/08, 7/2/08, $2,300K (-4%)"

I saw 327 21st at the first open house. The building was borderline uninhabitable, not "low-end" at all, but a tear down for all intents and purposes. So $2.3m is lot value, not "low-end" house value.

Anonymous said...

And to think all those people who stood in line at IMB didn't even know the bank was in trouble! Looks like a similar situation in 90402, only it's housing.

Anonymous said...

Anon at 3:13, couldn't agree more. It's the same retired grocery baggers and postal workers in line at IndyMac and writing offers on houses in 90402. Why won't the bulls on this blog wake up and recognize that?

rosebud said...

I have to imagine the average gross income in this area has been falling like a rock, if it's the "retired grocery baggers and postal workers" that have been filling the demand side of the equation...

Good data, Westside. Still bullish until the inventory (significantly) rises in the area...

Anonymous said...

Assuming some, if not most, of the buyers are borrowing, does this also mean there's a thriving market for jumbo loans out there and people are paying the 8% plus rates?

Anonymous said...

You're assuming people are taking out 30 year fixed loans. Until the last couple of weeks, you could get an interest only arm <6%, even with a jumbo. You could get an even better rate for first mortgages of <729.5K, obviously assuming excellent credit. People are probably taking a gamble that the credit market will have sorted itself out in the next five years, before these arms adjust. I know that's what we did (although we only wish we had bought north of Montana).

Anonymous said...

pretty much everyone on this blog thinks prices in the 90402 will go down

but for today july 08 you have to admit that prices are holding rock solid

plenty of drive by offers at 2.0 mil

Anonymous said...

When you see the occasional 10-15% price drop from the original list price, this is very deceiving. This doesn't mean prices are falling that much, it just means the seller overpriced their home. You can ask whatever you want as a seller. Looks like I will be waiting forever to purchase in the area, because I am just about priced out. To think Santa Monica will all the sudden dramatically drop 20-30% is just unrealistic. Way too many buyers around that are willing and able to pay to live in the area even if there is a slide of 10-15% in real prices.

Westside Bubble said...

This doesn't mean prices are falling that much, it just means the seller overpriced their home.

True, but ... I also see that as the over-reaching by sellers that would have worked a couple of years ago, but now encounters resistance.

Anonymous said...

I am in agreement that, with homes NOM, if you wait you will lose!!

When you see drastic reductions it also means that the Realtor promised the Seller the World just to get the listing.

Then, after a couple of weeks if no offers, the Agent begs for the price reduction, and finally makes a deal.

If you are trying to justify waiting it out, you are almost assuring yourself that you will never get your dream house NOM or even NOWilshire.

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