Tuesday, July 29, 2008

May Case-Shiller

Today's May 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, although not as steeply.

Los Angeles (black line, includes Orange County) is now down 27.5% from its peak in September 2006 - 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 19.8% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $401,614, $401,614 - $606,600, and Over $606,600; updated down again for May). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 36.5%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down 20.0% from June 2006.

I'm still waiting for 517 Euclid Street to close (LP=$2,139K) for another low-end north-of-Montana data point for my index of sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid. Is the shortage of such sales in the last year a reflection of sellers holding back, or a permanent depletion of such houses as north of Montana mansionizes?

And a 5.8 earthquake hit an hour ago, centered between Diamond Bar and Chino Hills, after a long quiet period. Remember 1994 in and around Santa Monica?

22 comments:

Dan said...

Don't think the quake would affect whether I'd buy.

But then again, it does make you think about what the big one will do to housing values and whether you want to buy before that. Esp since they said CA has a 99% chance of a 6.7+ and a 46% chance of a 7.5+ over the next 30 years.

Anonymous said...

Only idiots will buy before the next big quake. I'm renting until then. I'll look like a genius, I tell you, a genius!

Anonymous said...

Is there any way to pull up all your case-shiller posts without scrolling through every post (which I have read -- don't get me wrong, thank you.) I would just like to see the progression. Have you ever thought about adding tags?

Anonymous said...

Maybe buyers are holding back, due to a) overall feelings about the market/economy, or b) lack of financing options. Obviously, sellers that don't have to sell will hold out for higher prices or hold back altogether in the false hope that things will improve.

The peak selling season has ended, it will a bumpy, downhill ride for quite a while as the market gets flooded with REO's.

Anonymous said...

369 22nd:

http://pro.themls.com/All_Searches_Preview_Files/pow_one_client_detail_preview.cfm?se=1&header_title=no_header&chosen=08-248159&property_type=0

Westside Bubble said...

Is there any way to pull up all your case-shiller posts without scrolling through every post ... I would just like to see the progression. Have you ever thought about adding tags?

I try to make them cumulative (lines to date, and monthly % decreases), but if useful I could tag them. Hey, this blog is getting big enough tags could help find old stuff.

Anonymous said...

424 14th:

http://pro.themls.com/All_Searches_Preview_Files/pow_one_client_detail_preview.cfm?se=1&header_title=no_header&chosen=08-261169&property_type=0

Anonymous said...

lack of financing is a huge problem. and rates are not exactly low right now. until the banks have sold off their foreclosures, nothing will happen.

i'm old enough to remember when 30 year mortgages were 14%. think what that did to prices. there are a lot of factors at work here.

Scooter said...

"Only idiots will buy before the next big quake. I'm renting until then. I'll look like a genius, I tell you, a genius! "

Rent now or be priced out forever !

Anonymous said...

2637 34th Street:

http://pro.themls.com/All_Searches_Preview_Files/pow_one_client_detail_preview.cfm?se=1&header_title=no_header&chosen=08-266061&property_type=0

latesummer2008 said...

Case Schiller Numbers are falling off a cliff. Acceleration to the downside is increasing and will only get worse once Alt-A (Liar Loans) kick in. Some areas such as Brentwood and Santa Monica showed losses of over 40% last month according to Dataquick.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

"I'm still waiting for 517 Euclid Street to close (LP=$2,139K) for another low-end north-of-Montana data point for my index of sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid. Is the shortage of such sales in the last year a reflection of sellers holding back, or a permanent depletion of such houses as north of Montana mansionizes?"

I think it is a depletion of inventory. There will always be a slow supply from probate and relocations, but the there is not significant turnover due to folks who can't pay the bills. In fact, some low-end buyers I know who bought 2-3 years ago with the dream of a tear-down or major renovation are sitting tight and riding it out. True, they cancelled the big plans, but have more than enough resources to pay the monthly nut and have no plans of selling.

Anonymous said...

there have been posts about 16463 Akron, so I wanted to point out the NEW NEW price: $1,595,00 !

(I think the last post was on June 28.)

Anonymous said...

Here is the old listing at $2,935

http://www.16463akron.com/

and the new at $1,595

http://guests.themls.com/profile_page.cfm?mls=08-245845&tab=search

What gives?

Westside Bubble said...

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

Welcome back!

latesummer2008 said...

Thank you. It appears that a large chunk of The Westside is about to be ripped off. Summer season is drawing to a close and ALT-A resets are now looming. Another quick 20% within the next 9 months is my prediction. Other areas have already dropped significantly and the Westside is NOT IMMUNE. I believe S.M. condos will lead the way. 40.3% drop last month in 90405. Throw in this latest earthquake and those old torca conversions look mighty shaky. I wouldn't touch one.

Anonymous said...

i agree - 90403 will get SPANKED in next 12 mos

look out below!

latesummer2008 said...

Westside Bubble,

I have you listed on my blog roll. Want to return the favor? Perhaps together, we can get more of the word out.

A big "pricing chunk" is ready to drop here on the Westside...

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

Westside Bubble said...

Of course, now that you're back online!

Anonymous said...

It seems to me whenever I walk thru the 90403 I see plenty of homeless living in the 90403 but when I walk in 90402 no homeless. So it seems to me the houses in 90403 deserve lower real estate values than 90402.

So today 90403 lots are 1.4 and in 90402 it is 2.0

So both might fall 40 pct but the gap will persist since 90403 has the vagrants

Anonymous said...

One other thing about Santa Monica is that the government is filled with people who are so liberal that they blame the police in any confrontation between the police and the gangbangers.

So if there is a confrontation with the police and the gangbanber gets injured in the process of being arrested, the government takes the side of the gangbanger.

The police in Santa Monica are thus the most politically correct in the s california.

If a gangbanger is terrorizing your neighborhood, the police are thus much less aggressive than they are in other areas.

Police in Santa Monica are scared of the ultra liberal political leadership which has an anti police bias.

The police are actually quite popular with the average person who lives in Santa Monica.

But the people that rise to leadership in Santa Monica are extreme anti police zealots.

You will remember during the "Cop Killer" song controversey, (see wikipedia) white liberals in Santa Monica spoke out in favor of the song.

Basically, The liberals who run santa monica prevent the police from taking actions to stop the killing in the pico neighborhood

The good people, especially minorities, in the pico neighborhood are left by the liberal white power structure to an environment right out of the lord of the flies.

Anonymous said...

Get the facts - read the SMPD annual report, which features historical statistics. The SMPD beat cops do a great job, along with their support units. I am not too happy with the City Council and a number of department heads, but the SMPD is a real community asset.

http://santamonicapd.org/Information/AnnualReports/AnnualReport-2007.pdf