Thursday, July 24, 2008

Ocean Park outcomes

To wrap up Santa Monica, here are the outcomes for Ocean Park listings.

Ocean Park seems home to the biggest price reductions. Maybe because a basic shack really isn't worth a million or more? For example, 2724 6th (photo above) took a whopping 16% + 20% reduction and over a year and a half to finally sell!

The attempted flip at 2614 2nd (corner of Ocean Park Blvd., photo below) was first listed 23 months ago. It's off the MLS, but appears still active on Fizber. Ouch!

Sold

651 Navy St, 1/1, LP=$639K (-6% from OLP), OLD=10/25/07, SD=4/1/08, $615K (-4% from LP)
727 Marine, 2/1, $799K, 2/7/08, 6/11/08, $750K (-6%)
659 Copeland Ct, 2/1.75, $875K, 5/28/08, 7/10/08, $975K (+11%)
724 Navy, 2 bed/1.5 bath, $899K (-6%), 5/6/07, 1/25/08, $849K (-6%)
2724 6th, 2/1, $999K (-16%), 9/4/06, 5/5/08, $800K (-20%)
2613 5th, 3/2, $1,079K (-28%), 6/1/07, 3/24/08, $1,000K (-7%)
3117 5th, 3/2, $1,299K (-4%), 2/20/08, 6/25/08, $1,319K (+2%)
427 Pier, 3/2.5, $1,795K, 11/28/07, 1/15/08, $1,625K (-9%)
2806 2nd, 3/3, $2,390K (-11%), 10/3/07, 5/19/08, $2,205K (-8%)
3114 4th St, 3/2.75, $2,398K (-4%), 11/26/07, 4/23/08, $2,225K (-7%)

Sale Pending

426 Ashland, 2/1, $1,050K (-19%), 4/17/08, Pending 7/2/08

Expired or Withdrawn

635 Ashland, 3/1.75, $1,398K (-15%), 5/21/08, Withdrawn 6/25/08
419 Hill, 4/3, $1,880K, 10/8/07, Expired 4/08
750 Navy, 2/1.5, $1,900K, 3/3/08, Expired 3/08
216 Bicknell, 3/4, $2,150K, 6/9/08, Withdrawn 7/21/08

Information Needed

664 Marine, 2/1, $749K, 10/18/07, Backup 11/07, Gone 1/08; on Fizber asking $749K
718 Marine, 1/1, $799K (-8%), 5/25/07; was FSBO sign in front; on RealEstate.com asking $729K
2614 2nd, 3/1.75, $1,339K (-10%), 8/28/06, Gone 3/08; on Fizber asking $1,339K; leased, per comment.
2513 3rd, 3/1, $1,695K, 2/1/08, Backup 2/08, Gone 3/08

31 comments:

SCOTTMCINTOSH said...

The house on the corner of 2nd and Ocean Park is leased.

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks, Scott!

Anonymous said...

We will not be good until the majority of 1/1's are under $500k. I recently bought a 3/3 place in Playa Vista for $600k. So would you rather be the same distance from the beach, but pay over $100k more (718 Marine) for two less bedrooms and baths? Insane.

Anonymous said...

How are the schools in Playa Vista?

Anonymous said...

Just two years ago we were still arguing about whether property was in a bubble or not (google for sonnypage's posts on the motley fool or on mish's blog for an example of a realtor with decades of experience who was blindsided). Guess what? We were in a bubble. Prices will come down. How much? Enough that there will be at minimum rent savings on condominiums, maybe a small premium over renting for SFRs.

The question of whether the market will be supported by the uber-rich purchasing houses for themselves or their family is an interesting one. I don't travel in those circles much, so I have a very outsider sort of perspective.

My impression is that really rich people in Santa Monica generally need to be in Los Angeles for business reasons. Those that don't need to physically be here will pack up for other locations. San Francisco is an obvious choice with better urban amenities, those craving laid back beachy lifestyles can enjoy Santa Barbara without the crush of tourists and homeless. The very rich don't care about the schools, because the kids are grown, going to private schools, or are privately tutored anyways. From this view Santa Monica is in reality the best choice available for your top-tier working stiff. Am I wrong? Why would someone, who could live anywhere and buy anything, choose Santa Monica?

Anonymous said...

If 1:43pm is correct, then my advice to the landlords: get those rents up, fast!

Anonymous said...

how many kids can you raise and for how long in a 2/1?

Westchester, Marina del Rey and Mar Vista all have excellent elementary schools.

If you're the kind of person that spends over a million on a modest home why do you bother with public schools anyway? Please don't say you value public education. If you had those kind of values you wouldn't have contributed to the growing gap between rich and poor by buying a million plus modest home.

Anonymous said...

if the modest homes cost a million plus and i want to live in one i have no choice but to buy it

bottom line is that many people that can afford a few million in santa barbara or a few million in san francisco really believe in public schools, really believe in the progressive vibe you can get here, and also really need to be in easy driving distance to los angeles

we don't like the vibe in manhattan beach or many of the more conservative and athletic places near los angeles - santa monica is where we want to be

we don't like the fact that houses are so expensive - we wish they weren't

Anonymous said...

Check out the 900402
is it "fair" that the average new house there sells for 4.0 million ? it may not be fair but it is what the buyers are paying right now.

if you like that price then buy if you don't like that price move to playa del rey

no one is forcing anyone to buy today

new houses are moving for 4.0 in 90402

older smaller houses are moving for much less in ocean park -

take your pick

Anonymous said...

Man, the athletic Manhattan Beach crap is really tired. It's like you get your news from Katie Couric and then walk around spouting it off as fact. You folks don't know MB if that's what you think. Sportwise, it's about the same as here with a few atheletes living there because of nearby training facilities.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Anon 3:21. MB has a noticeably more conservative & athletic vibe, while SM has a more liberal & artistic vibe. It's not better or worse (I've lived in both), it's just different. You certainly have artist-types in MB, and athlete-types in SM, but the general vibe, which may not be quantifiable but is very evident, is the way I described. There's a reason that the Hollywood-types tend to buy in SM, and the pro-athlete-types tend to buy in MB. Unfortunately, both cities (SM and MB) are becoming unaffordable due to these wealthy folks!

Anonymous said...

i agree completely
there is a different vibe.


just check out all the USC flags flying from the houses on the strand in MB on game day.

you *certainly* don't see that in SM!!

Anonymous said...

"From this view Santa Monica is in reality the best choice available for your top-tier working stiff. Am I wrong? Why would someone, who could live anywhere and buy anything, choose Santa Monica?"

You are correct. My circle is $400-$800k household income, some of us work un-godly hours and travel, but the common thread is we live in SM, on quiet residential streets. SM is close to LAX, walkable on weekends, close to all westside activities, and super low-key to download and relax. Once you get the lifestyle dialed in, it is low-energy and low-stress.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for putting that together. I have a few comments: first 6th st. did take a haircut, but the house was a total tear down and it still fetched $170+ per square foot for the dirt, second 644 Marine is being rennovated and the owner will probably rent it as an income property or maybe sell, but he took $250 from the bank so this time he will probably want $1million, and 3) the best deal seemed to be copeland court that was a good lot on a nice street, and four 3117 5th went for over asking and that is surprising considering the front house was about 800sqft and the back was about 600sqft so even with the income form the back ($2K) the new owner is paying a lot for a very small house with a tenant.

Anonymous said...

let me chime in as well

santa monica used to be filled with creative types but is now filling up with business people and professionals

there are plenty of people with 400 - 800 household income that love the santa monica vibe

they are willing to put up with some of the negatives of sm in order to enjoy the positives

there is a feel here in santa monica that is hard to find elsewhere -

the high income folks here feel superior to their comrades in Beverly Hills and Holmby - they feel more liberal and more authentic and more casual

SM just has a vibe that is different than the other high income areas

Anonymous said...

SM just has a vibe that is different than the other high income areas

Right. I can wear shorts and t-shirt on a weekend, and the pro folks I run into in my business think it is all good. Wearing the same shorts and t-shirt is BH and running into pro folks almost requires an explanation that I am not playing a tourist or taken a second job as a gardener.

Anonymous said...

You cannot compare SM to Beverly Hills, we have the ocean and it is not going anywhere.

Anonymous said...

right

i cruise sm in my prius, tee shirt and flip flops

in a prius, flip flops and a tee in holmby hills or hidden hills or san marino or any other upscale hood i just don't get treated the same way

people are just more relaxed and liberal and less status focused in sm

i have nothing against the rest of la but sm is my place

Richard Mason said...

anonymous: you wouldn't have contributed to the growing gap between rich and poor by buying a million plus modest home.

Buying a modest home for a million dollars does not contribute to the growing gap between rich and poor, it reduces it. Now someone who only had a modest home is a lot richer and someone who was rich only has a modest home.

anonymous: if the modest homes cost a million plus and i want to live in one i have no choice but to buy it

That's actually not true either. I wonder if you can figure out the error in your logic.

Anonymous said...

Richard you are right

the folks I know buying today north of montana have a choice - they can for the same dough buy in beverly hills or Holmby

they choose the spend the money north of montana since there is an environment and a buzz north of montana that they feel is missing from Beverly hills and holmby -

they are buying for this

Anonymous said...

Yes, continue to delude yourself that one can't justify to their friends in Holmby/BH that the wearing flip flops and t-shirts is OK. I've been in and around Santa Monica/BH/ HOlmby my whole life and I think that if you really believe that nonsense then you don't know the area that well. Sure, Santa Monica is more casual, but Southern California is casual everywhere. Perhaps there are some more formal participants in certain areas, but you will never shock anyone with casual dress in any neighborhood. You folks sound so lame trying to rationalize your existence in a certain neighborhood with comments like that. The $400-800k friend guy, you sound like a douche.

Anonymous said...

The $400-800k friend guy, you sound like a douche.

Sorry to hear your characterization of a stranger; how do you expect to get a positive housing outcome attacking others?

Prices won't crash based on negative comments in blogs. Blogs provide entertainment along the way, and hopefully some good listing info and trends!

Anonymous said...

7:54,

I respectfully disagree with you.

When i am in BH with my prius i get treated like sh*t. The parking valets snicker, and people cut me off & etc. it is a totally different vibe.

In BH the guy with the Bentley and the rolls gets props - in SM if you showed up with a Bentley or a Rolls you would get laughed at

Get a clue - SM has a different car culture than BH

Anonymous said...

BH has an attitude to uphold, as well as SM and MB. I live, work and play in all of them. They are all different, and I think the majority who live in each are very happy right where they are. They are all much further apart than their simple, 20 minute time distances.

Anonymous said...

Whenever i am in BH or HH i can't wait to get back to SM - just don't like the attitude in BH and HH

Anonymous said...

how about more coverage of the condos in 90403

i want to bid on the bank owned foreclosures

Westside Bubble said...

how about more coverage of the condos in 90403

SM Distress Monitor does condos a lot more than I do.

And seriously, if you're looking to buy you need to develop your own data.

Anonymous said...

"Whenever i am in BH or HH i can't wait to get back to SM - just don't like the attitude in BH and HH"

totaly. i won't even drive through. in fact i keep my bentley at the sm border, and my prius inside sm. when i get to the edge of town i have to switch cars or else people totaly look at me funny.

Anonymous said...

Don't make me laugh, SM has more than it's share of snotty little sh#ts! Have you ever heard of Jonathan Club, Sand and Sea Club, Crossroads School??

Don't think for a minute that Santa Monica doesn't have an unhealthy snob culture.

Anonymous said...

We are looking at neighborhoods for our 3 teenagers. We home school so we have more flexibility than most, but school quality does affect home values so I do care, I also care about the kids in the community who do not have the option of opting out of public schools.
Westchester has good grade schools, but the high school is terrible aside from the programs for the advanced kids. The same is largely true of Santa Monica. The more normal kids who are not super early high achievers get largely ignored and if your child has an issue like autism, forget it, they are awful. There are far more kids and families in Westchester and lots of home schoolers, the vibe is totally different and we are looking there as well as elsewhere. Since my older two take classes at SMC, that is also a factor.
Two of my kids are involved in the Crossroads orchestra on Tuesday nights during the school year. The people at Crossroads could not be nicer and I have not detected an iota of snobbishness. Their orchestra is open to the entire community, public school, private school, home school, everyone is welcome. If I had the money and the desire to send my kids to a school, I would not hesitate to send them there. If anything I feel the Crossroads kids are under less pressure than the SAMO or Brentwood kids.
As far as schools go, family culture is a bigger factor in teh student's success than the school system and high achievers will do well anywhere.

Anonymous said...

sorry to bring up actual housing ;) but...

3117 5th sold for under it's original list price. above a reduced asking price, but still lower than the original.

personal experience for what it's worth...

i bid on a fixer in 90405 a couple weeks back. the list price was too high. the seller's agent knew this and volunteered a figure roughly 15% lower than asking as a "reasonable" valuation. i knocked another 10% off that and made my offer (in line with neighboring comps). the seller declined to counter.

end result: still sitting at 60+ DOM while nearby houses have gone quickly. some sellers get it, plenty still don't.