Have a great holiday, and celebrate what matters a lot more than stuff you buy!
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Tracking the real estate bubble on the Westside of Los Angeles, especially in Santa Monica ... available housing inventory, highlights/lowlights, and the larger economy.
Obligatory Disclaimer: I do my best to accurately report publicly-available data, but take no responsibility for what you do with it!
Contact westsidebubble {at} gmail {dot} com .
Blog Archive
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2008
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December
(16)
- October S&P/Case-Shiller
- Saturday LA Times
- Weekly inventory update
- Happy Holidays!
- Adelaide Place "ease and calm"
- Weekly inventory update
- Not selling in Palisades
- Venice canals update
- November DataQuick
- Weekly inventory update
- North of Montana <$3M outcomes update
- Beach Tract block party
- South Beach Tract
- Weekly inventory update
- Oldest of the old
- Sunset Park 16% off in 2 years
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December
(16)
Bubble Links
- Bill Fleckenstein
- Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking
- bubbleinfo.com (Jim the Realtor in north San Diego Co.)
- Burbed - S.F. Bay Area
- Calculated Risk
- Charles Hugh Smith
- Countrywide Foreclosures
- Curbed LA
- Dr. Housing Bubble
- Housing Doom (Phoenix)
- Irvine Housing Blog
- L.A. Land (LA Times blog)
- Manhattan Beach Confidential
- Marin Real Estate Bubble
- Market Ticker
- MarketWatch
- May 5th (Kate in the Valley)
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Nouriel Roubini's Global Economics Blog
- Original LA Land
- Paper Economy
- Paul B. Farrell - Marketwatch
- Paul Krugman - NY Times blog
- Real Estate Comments
- Sacramento Land(ing)
- Santa Monica Distress Monitor
- Soot and Ashes
- South Bay Beach Cities Real Estate Bubble
- Sudden Debt
- The Big Picture
- The Great Loan Blog
- The Housing Bubble (Ben Jones)
- WeHo Homes
- Westside RE meltdown
- Westside Shadow Buyer
22 comments:
Happy Holidays to you, too, Westside Bubble! Thanks for all of your posts this year. It's much appreciated.
BTW - 320 9TH St, SANTA MONICA, CA 90402
Has been reduced to UNDER $2mil. New price: $1,999,000. I know you've posted on lot values north of Montana, but i think that this is a liveable-in house and a significant indicator of things to come in 2009. Perhaps we'll see some NoMo prices fall a little further in the near future.
Thanks WB for the blog.....Happy 2009!
Thank you WB! You put in a lot of hard work to produce your informative and entertaining analysis. Your fairness and cool reserve is noteworthy. We're looking forward to what you have to say in 2009!
i agree - 7500 square foot lots on busy streets are not moving - on non busy streets they are moving
Define busy.
9th is not busy.
7th is busy.
26th is busy.
north of montana prices are coming down and will come down more.
"i agree - 7500 square foot lots on busy streets are not moving - on non busy streets they are moving"
Define "moving". One per month?
Is it just me or are there more gangbangers from the pico neighborhood hanging out at the third street promenade ?
seems to be getting less and less safe
uh oh - perhaps it is time to move to malibu if SM isn't safe any more
5% mortgages are having a big impact on the market right now
borrow 2 million at 5% and you are paying only 100k in interest a year
deduct that and you are only paying 60 thou after taxes a year
the real cost of that loan after tax is 60 thou
People are stupid to buy houses at today's prices but they are doing it.
People are stupid
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Falling interest rates are fueling a mortgage refinance frenzy as homeowners rush to reduce their housing payments.
The average rate for a 30-year, fixed mortgage dropped to 5.08% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, more than a full point lower than just a month ago.
Mortgage applications were up a whopping 48% last week, according to the MBA and more than 80% were from homeowners looking to lower housing costs.
"It's snowing loans," said Steve Habetz, a Connecticut mortgage broker, "and they're all refis."
Among those were Elizabeth Mayer and Michael Keohane, who bought their Manhattan condo just a little over a year ago, financing $220,000 of the purchase price with a 30-year, fixed rate loan of 6.5%. That was affordable, with monthly payments of less than $1,400. But their new 5.25% loan will lower their payment to about $1,215, saving about $175 a month.
"It was a nice holiday gift," said Mayer.
With savings like that, it's no wonder that homeowners are coming out of the woodwork. And mortgage brokers are beating the drums too, advising their clients to let the good times roll.
Mayer said her mortgage broker had kept her informed of interest rate declines ever since she originally purchased her home. "He's been encouraging whenever opportunities arose," she said. "We missed one opportunity last spring when we just weren't able to act on it."
The broker made sure they didn't miss this chance. "He e-mailed me [about it] from South Africa and called when he got back," said Mayer.
5% mortgages are up to 417k, about 5.5% up to 625k and any loan over 625k you are paying at least 6.5% plus. So 2M loan at 5%...Tell me where? I doubt it exists.
I think the following article might be more relevant than the one quoted by Anon @ December 25, 2008 6:33 AM, for the reasons pointed out by Anon @ December 25, 2008 1:04 PM:
"Jumbo mortgage shoppers in the most expensive U.S. housing markets such as New York and San Francisco aren’t getting much relief from lower borrowing costs.
The average 30-year fixed rate for home loans of more than $729,750 remains almost 2 percentage points above conforming rates and the spread between them may set a record this month, according to financial data firm BanxQuote.
...
The difference between the two averaged 2.13 percentage points in December, 10 times the spread from 2000 to 2006 and above last month’s 1.95 percentage points that was the highest on record. ..."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHwIBpFQkEhM
Am i the only one who sees more families moving from Manhattan to North of Montana?
The ones i know tell me that apples to apples North of Montana prices are about half of Manhatttan
they sell their 4 thousand square foot apartment in manhattan for 7 million and move in to a 4 thousand square foot house North of Montana for 3.5 million
things cost much less North of Montana than in Manhattan
read the following article
WHEN Jon and Susan Ashley move back to the United States from London next summer, they want their children to have the usual perquisites of suburban living. They will move into a sprawling two-story home where their twins, Zack and Alec, 11; their daughter, Sophie, 6; and their month-old son, Dylan, will have their own bedrooms and a separate playroom.
Enlarge This Image
Alta Indelman
Last January, Ian Stone paid $7.2 million for six apartments at the Park Millennium, 111 West 67th Street, top. Mr. Stone is combining the six apartments into one sprawling unit of 4,200 square feet, with four bedrooms, a den, office and play area.
But they won’t be in Greenwich, Conn., or Armonk, N.Y. The Ashleys will move into a 31-story Upper West Side condominium, where they have bought three apartments that they are combining into a six-bedroom, 4,200-square-foot duplex.
"things cost much less North of Montana than in Manhattan"
Just another twist of the realtard argument along the lines "Rich hedge fund guys/Saudi oil princes/Persian doctors/People with enormously wealthy parents/Power couples/ ... will save 90402 from declining."
No one thinks 90402 will escape decline
The debate here is over how deep that decline will be
However, the demographics of 90402 will cotinue to change no matter how steep the decline is
Many new yorkers will move to 90402 whether it declines 10 pct or 50 pct
Do not forget that land in 90402 fell 40 percent in the last crash
And at the same time it crashed the demographics changed
It must be the Christmas spirit, but I just can't wait for this Tuesday's Case-Shiller. Jolly good news in the offering, I suspect. Every month gets us closer to reality
Intrinsic value is not hard to calculate, for a quick and dirty estimate, just PV back the rental values. Seeing lots of starter rentals (3/2) in the $3,800 - $5,200 range. You can do the math.
My friend in New York just got a $130k bonus, a down year for him. I got $30k, and it's an up year for me. We're in the same line of work, graduated at the same time, etc.
He can move here, sure, but then he'll be getting my $30k bonus. There's a reason stuff costs more in Manhattan.
And you people are fucking idiots.
Anon @ December 26, 2008 2:17 PM:
Perhaps you only get a $30k bonus because, well, ... you are simply as intellectually limited as the last line of your post indicates?
can anyone tell me what builder built 1024 23rd, the house that is on sale now - this is not a great location as far as i am concerned but i like the design and want to know who the builder is
can anyone tell me what builder built 1024 23rd, the house that is on sale now - this is not a great location as far as i am concerned but i like the design and want to know who the builder is
Greg Flewin Design
i just got back from the open house on 17th - the green house just south of san vicente - asking 4.8
let me start out by saying i am a mega bear - think that prices in 90402 will plummet in the next two years
that being said this house was well done - one clever idea was putting the guest house in front of the main house for maximum privacy
also a meditation room is above the guest house - a feature i have never seen before
Ummm, actually IT IS all about what you buy....70% of the economy is based on consumer spending....
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