Friday, December 19, 2008

Weekly inventory update

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market.

A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/ 5/08 64 2 92 143 53 1 143 129 72 5 126
12/12/08 62 3 93 154 48 2 136 114 70 6 141
12/19/08 54 3 84 159 52 4 138 126 66 8 149
12/26/08

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Very low inventory. Seems like something needs to get shaken out....There will be a lot of people creeping back into the market that have been on the sidelines watching for either lower rates or reduced prices.

Anonymous said...

I thought the new inventory in nicer areas would come from the defaults and forced sales of the alt A and option arm loans - a significant portion already missing payments in California. This, I had hoped, would drive down Santa Monica like subprime did to the inland empire.

Now that mainstream media is running stories on the next "wave of foreclosures" from alt A/option arms resets, see 60 minutes last week, it probably will not happen.

The best remedy for a market with too much debt is inflation (as long as the increased costs do not drive you under). The Fed is making it happen. Eventually lenders will start putting all the money from the fed into the market (classic - fix an asset bubble created in part from lax lending standards with more cheap but not so easy money). There will be many dollars/yen/yuan/euros chasing the same resources, e.g., oil, steel, food, and housing. Prices go up (except housing, which is already overvalued, instead housing corrects through inflation), salaries go up next, and existing debt is not so burdensome. Inflation brings much pain for many along the way, but fixes the current asset bubble without wiping out everyone, just some, in this highly leveraged economy.

Bottom line - the bottom will be very hard to judge. Even when buying is a good value again, just like it was on the way up, it is very difficult to reverse the downward trend.

Westside Bubble said...

Very low inventory.

I see record-high inventory for late December, especially at the high end.

Then add a lot of withdrawn listings coming back on the market in the spring, and the glut should really tip prices down.

rosebud said...

It looks like the number of homes under $3MM is in line with norms, and the total homes for sale isn't at a record for this 3 year snapshot. Remember, the last time there was an actual crash in SM, the total inventory was 4 times this. Also keep in mind the total number of SFR's in the whole city, and this inventory is unbelievably low.

Anonymous said...

Right

it takes four times as much inventory to produce a crash

what i see when i walk around north of montana is plenty of people who have decided to rent their house for a few years instead of sell in to today's market

if the people that want to sell are willing to rent then there is no glut of inventory in the sale market and no crash this time

Anonymous said...

When I bought at the last recession in '91...there were hundreds (i am not joking) of houses to choose from in Sunset Park.

I looked at exactly one hundred houses in a 9 month period before I bought my favorite....nothing was moving. The first house I saw was still on the market when I bought 9 months later.

That needs to happen before prices move down....too much inventory and people who need to sell.

Anonymous said...

"When I bought at the last recession in '91...there were hundreds (i am not joking) of houses to choose from in Sunset Park."

Well, in a way that's a scary thought. This recession is going to outdo the '91 one on all fronts, that's for sure already. Though what's not clear to me is whether Sunset Park in '91 is comparable to Sunset Park in '09 (in terms of demographics, income etc.). Perhaps the Sunset Park of the past is the Culver City of the present?

dwr said...

"Remember, the last time there was an actual crash in SM, the total inventory was 4 times this. Also keep in mind the total number of SFR's in the whole city, and this inventory is unbelievably low."

Do you ever cite to any source(s), or do you always just pull stuff out of your you know what?

Anonymous said...

I agree...the inventory is not as high. Sellers in '91 were in to houses for under $500K, so in a way, maybe they had less to lose by selling?

Nowadays, the houses are so expensive and so much a part of one's net worth, that people will do more to hold on to them....rather than sell at a ridiculous low price.

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