Tuesday, November 25, 2008

North of Montana index

Here's an update on my low-end north-of-Montana index to go with the latest S&P/Case-Shiller, showing low-end sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid, scaled to equal the Case-Shiller index in 1990 (where 100 = $750K).

Because there has been only one such sale in over a year, I've shown similarly low-end but not on those four streets sales (three red dots above, two gray listings below), including yesterday's not-tear-down 460 Lincoln for $1,900K.

If lot value on 9th-10th-12th-Euclid is now around $1.7M (above the non-MLS 370 22nd, but below 460 Lincoln), that would put it back to early-mid 2005, per my list since 2000 below. If you think lot value is down to $1.6M (I'm not convinced yet), that's actually mid-2004 - not far off S&P/Case-Shiller for LA being back to early 2004. So even in 90402 the price momentum is now down.

1/00 $750K 518 10th
5/01 $995K 550 Euclid
6/02 $1,000K 544 Euclid
11/02 $1,100K 402 10th
5/03 $1,375K 229 12th
6/03 $1,397K 602 10th
7/03 $1,401K 627 Euclid
9/04 $1,610K 633 10th
12/05 $1,795K 717 Euclid
3/06 $1,976K 502 Euclid
6/07 $2,050K 307 Euclid
6/07 $2,160K 433 12th
8/08 $2,079K 517 Euclid
10/08 $1,600K 370 22nd
11/08 $1,900K 460 Lincoln

The full list since 1981 is in the first comment of this 9/18/07 post.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oct DQ News shows Pac Pal Price per sq ft at $680. While out of pocket high, it has been a long time since we have seen anything under $700 there.

dwr said...

I think it's pretty clear the peak for lot value in 90402 was early 2007, and was well over 2.0MM, as you documented in a post in 2007:

"Remember the surge of low-end (as if $2-2.5M is "low end"!) listings north of Montana this spring? They sold pretty fast, as cited in North of Montana buying spree (June 5th). We finally have some sales reported (and shame on Zillow for being behind the County):

369 22nd, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$2,150K, SP=$2,250K, closed 4/6/07
517 Euclid, 5/2, $2,175K, $2,250K, 6/7/07
307 Euclid, 3/2.5, $2,195K, $2,050K, 6/13/07
225 22nd, 4/2, $2,249K, $2,230K, 5/3/07
727 12th, 5/3, $2,295K, $2,200K, 5/22/07
427 17th, 4/2, $2,295K, $2,425K, 5/23/07
716 11th, 3/3, $2,295K, $2,300K, 5/8/07
363 21st Pl., 4/3.75, $2,398K, $2,578K (?!), 6/5/07"

http://westside-bubble.blogspot.com/2007/08/low-end-north-of-montana.html

Anonymous said...

dwr, are these 7500 sq ft lots or 9000?

dwr said...

Given the streets, most have to be 7500. Not sure about the ones on 21st and 22nd.

tbgpalisades said...

"Oct DQ News shows Pac Pal Price per sq ft at $680"

Well, that will be going back up since the four homes sold month-to-date average $1,181. That's right FOUR HOMES SOLD...no pricing problem here. It'll take a while to unload the 200+ for sale in PP at this rate.

Oh, BTW take out the one that sold for $2,937 per sq ft and you're down to $595 per sq ft.

I love seeing the invisible hand work its magic!

Anonymous said...

I'm seeing the EXACT same thing in PP... NOTHING is selling (although a couple more went into escrow recently that had huge reductions (including the infamous green house... wondering what that'll close for)

Lots of PP houses back on the market having sold in the last threeish years and some reduced below their 2004 sales price. Probably a loan reset party.

Which four houses closed for how much?

Anonymous said...

westside, a bit more news on PP here and there is welcome. recognize you have bitten off quite a bit here with westside moniker but PP is uncovered.