On the subject of "zzzzzzzzzzzz.... inventory.... zzzzzzz.... graphs.........." (!), here's an inventory followup through October from last month's Santa Monica <$3M and >$3M and other Westside charts. October is typically the peak inventory month before it falls through year-end.As you can see, Pacific Palisades and the total Westside are at record inventory levels for the last two years. Conversely, Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista peaked June-July this year and although still high are below October peaks of the past year or two.
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There is so much discussion on this blog and others about inventory levels. I suspect that number of sales is a more telling indicator of where the market is. My agent tells me that things have really slowed down and that cash deals are the ones that are getting done. I'd like some numbers to back this up. Anyone have anything on this???
Just wanted to say that I appreciate the graphs, figures, and data.
Although north of 90402 isn't relevant to me. I have enjoyed learning that rich people also worry about markets, price, and timing. I just assumed they asked the next rich person where they should live and then buy there -- in cash.
Hasn't the "90402 buyers pay all cash" myth been dispelled about 10 different times on this blog?
Did you read the article, "How I bought a foreclosed house" by Peter Hong in the LA Times on Saturday?
One thing about the story is that he loses the first two houses he bids on to people with "all-cash" offers. But he later finds out that both those offers fell through. (He should have been more patient!). Kind of makes you wonder what the value of "all-cash" really is.
Did you read the article, "How I bought a foreclosed house" by Peter Hong in the LA Times on Saturday?
One thing about the story is that he loses the first two houses he bids on to people with "all-cash" offers. But he later finds out that both those offers fell through. (He should have been more patient!). Kind of makes you wonder what the value of "all-cash" really is.
Damn iPhone.
how should we interpret the sm under three million inventory levels - does this mean that teardowns are not on the market the way they used to be -
can you talk about the recent sales of teardowns in 90402 and 90403
Looky-loo,
Inventory is very important, as is sales. They taste best when served together in the form of months of industry=inventory/sales pace. Either one alone, even when compared to historical averages (in the case of this blog - over a relatively short period) does not paint a good enough picture to be able to draw many conclusions. Oh well, he's not getting paid to do this, so I'll take what I can get.
Go to the MLS web site
you will see that the number of teardowns North of Montana is very very low by historical standards
people just don't seem willing to sell their teardowns at today's prices and seem happy to hold on to them until prices come back up
there is NOT inventory of teardowns in the 90402 right now
those of us who want to buy a teardown and build the home of our dreams are with you - we hope and hope that the bears are right - but go to the MLS . There is nothing there for us
In Bel Air in October, 4 homes went into escrow. There is a 28 month supply of homes on the market. Rentals inventory is exploding, as people who can't sell are turning to leasing. Over 82 homes/condos for RENT in Bel Air.
The median asking price in Bel Air is 3M. The median selling price is 1M.
A good hedgefund friend of mine told me that banks will not lend more than one million dollars to anyone, no matter what their finances/credit/score income.
There is a VASTLY diminished pool of buyers for the still hugely overpriced Westside. To buy a 3M house you have to put 2M down!
2009/10 will see the expensive areas capitulate to the same degree as the SFV. In two years, the Westside will be down 50% from here.
See my latest post, looky-loo, and thanks, viking!
It is damn hard to get a loan. Really hard.
So I imagine that significantly reduces the buying pool.
You basically have to sell a house, have hordes of cash or some big asset to put enough money down....
It takes a lot longer to get a loan, but it is possible. We just got a loan for a house in SM for close to $2mm with 20% down, but it took us a good month and a half to go through the whole process and fund.
Aren't interest rates for jumbos running at historic highs? 9-10%?
The credit market needs to calm way down.....
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