Tuesday, November 18, 2008

October DataQuick

More of the same in today's October DataQuick numbers. Median prices are now down 35.5% for Los Angeles County from its peak a year ago August. Volumes rose 9% from August and a huge 56% from October 2007 - but are still well below the previous three Octobers. (September DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to February 2004, Orange County to June 2003, Ventura County to April 2003, and San Diego all the way to June 2002 (LA unchanged, others one month earlier than last month).

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

put 90402 on this graph and it is shocking how different 90402 is from the rest -

90402 is down only 15% vs the others down 30 or 40 %

latesummer2009 said...

Keep your eyes on San Diego. They were the market leaders on the upswing and now on the downswing.

Anonymous said...

Data...yawn....Quick.....snore...where are the big cuts on good houses in Santa Monica?....i'll wait....zzzzzzz

Anonymous said...

Why not include a santa monica graph? Oh that's right, Santa Monica is only down 10 percent. Desirable locations from Santa Monica to Park Slope to San Francisco are still expensive. If you can get a deal right now, you should go for it. Those of you waiting for that 80 percent drop will be renting for a very long time.

Westside Bubble said...

Monthly median prices for Santa Monica depend too much on what size of houses happened to sell that month. That's why I focus on comparable categories of houses as indicators by neighborhood, especially low-end.

Although I did post Melissa's sales data by zip code two months ago.

Anonymous said...

If you can get sales price and sf of the homes sold in santa Monica you can calculate psf costs, which should present a better picture of the trend. It's not perfect, but it at least adjusts for size.

Anonymous said...

90402 is never coming down in price in any significant way. That's because it's such a special location and even with the economic meltdown (recession), wealthy people don't have a choice since no other zip in So. Cal. has all of the amenities of 90402.

Anonymous said...

I just lost out on what I thought was a decent bid on a house in Sunset Park....I'm sure prices are down, but not reasonable yet....

Looky-Loo Mike said...

It's true that the desirable Westside neighborhoods have not experienced the price declines seen in less desirable areas. No surprise there. And "anonymous" is right that potential customers of high-end real estate who are renting until prices come down are likely to be in for a long wait. Remember back to the 90's when it took seven years for the market to bottom. My personal view is that things will play out much like before: it will be a long and winding road to the new market equilibrium; there will be many price fluctuations along the way that will be incorrectly proclaimed as "market bottoms"; and, ultimately, the most desirable areas will end up at prices reflecting the availability of credit, the community's wealth, and the desirability of the location. Speaking personally, I paid around $400k for a nice condo in Santa Monica in 1997. At the time, my neighbors who paid $600k in the late 1980's were regretting their purchase (people forget how high the market went in the late 1980's) and were worried they would never get their money back (some of them were right, others wrong). My best guess is that my condo was worth $1.2 million at the top of the market and that it's now worth $1 million. It wouldn't surprise me if it's worth $650k a few years from now. But it doesn't really matter because it's a great place to live and, unless your an investor, you shouldn't look to make money from where you live. One more thing: we should be highly skeptical of what they're told by real estate agents or so-called experts. Always remember that the real estate agents (like stock brokers, car dealers, insurance brokers, and the like) have huge financial interest in closing deals. Don't assume they know more than you do.

Anonymous said...

Hey Westside B:
Just noticed on Redfin that 16463 Akron (you've posted several times on it) has finally sold at....$1,313,106

Does this mean it's been repossessed at this amount? Or is it a legit sale to a buyer? If so, then it's quite a markdown from it's re-listing price on Jan 11 of $2,595,000 (i don't know what the orig list px was in July '07)

Anonymous said...

"Desirable locations from Santa Monica to Park Slope to San Francisco are still expensive. If you can get a deal right now, you should go for it. Those of you waiting for that 80 percent drop will be renting for a very long time."

I'll give ya that we probably won't see %80 declines anywhere. Other than that, you are deluded and have no concept of what's playing out in the US/world economy and credit markets and how that will effect RE in LA in *all* areas.

Anonymous said...

If I could afford to live in 90402 and I truly believed that prices weren't coming down there, I don't think I would be reading a blog about the decline in home prices.
--just sayin

Anonymous said...

Dreamers....

Anonymous said...

I didn't know that this housing blog was only about 90402. What about the rest of the "Westside"?

Oh, that's right, talking about any other zipcode means that we're just poor losers!

Note to webmaster: Change the title of this blog to "90402 Bull Site", or just "90402 B.S."

Westside Bubble said...

Just noticed on Redfin that 16463 Akron (you've posted several times on it) has finally sold at....$1,313,106

Does this mean it's been repossessed at this amount? Or is it a legit sale to a buyer? If so, then it's quite a markdown from it's re-listing price on Jan 11 of $2,595,000 (i don't know what the orig list px was in July '07)


Thanks, Anon! The MLS only shows it Withdrawn on 11/4/08. I don't know after that. Anyone else?

The original listing price I have is $3,200K on 7/11/07.

Westside Bubble said...

I didn't know that this housing blog was only about 90402. What about the rest of the "Westside"?

Yeah, we get a little 90402-heavy. I use Pacific Palisades, north-of-Montana, Sunset Park, and Mar Vista as different Westside price-level indicators (and because I've been interested in them).