Thursday, July 29, 2010

S&P/Case-Shiller (May) and DataQuick (June)

Tuesday's May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller was an uptick for both Los Angeles and the 10-city Composite, but as a three-month average through May likely reflects the end of federal tax credits more than a rising trend.

Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 1.68% from April and 0.68% from March, down 0.70% from February and 0.67% from January, up 0.92% from December, 0.99% from November, 0.77% from October, 0.30% from September, 0.85% from August, and 1.6% from July, now down 36.2% from its September 2006 peak, at November 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 29.6% from its peak in June 2006. The Low, Middle, and High tiers are also graphed. The left column on the chart is peak to bottom; the right is peak to current month.

For a view ahead, this chart from Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture yesterday, of the S&P/Case-Shiller in real dollars, projects a continued fall to long-term values.

The DataQuick numbers for May show three of the four counties back down for the month. Los Angeles County's median was at $335K, down 39.1% from its peak in August 2007. That left Los Angeles County at September 2003, Orange County prices at October 2003, Ventura County at May 2003, and San Diego County at August 2002.

Finally, here is the updated Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100). The Case-Shiller data is a month older and a three-month average; the DataQuick downtick may be a leading indicator for Case-Shiller's dirction.

As I wrote last month, in general prices continue pretty flat since mid-2009, and likely to fall again as tax credits end, interest rates rise, and more foreclosures make it to market.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I believe the 2nd half of 2010 will resume the downward spiral of house prices. Mortgage applications are at a low not seen since the bottom of the last bear market in 1996 even with interest rates at 4.5%. Who bought, bought, and now in order to get people back in the market, prices will have to go down considerably. I think when all is said and done, 2015 will be the ultimate bottom, matching prices of homes at the start of the boom. I am not sure if inflation should be added.

Anonymous said...

"I am not sure if inflation should be added."

Agreed, when I go to McDonalds, I pay 5 cents for a cheeseburger, just like I did back in 1955. My gas costs 10 cents a gallon too.

Paying for things based on inflation is for suckers!

Anonymous said...

Only five more years of renting!! Woo hoo!

Anonymous said...

Did anyone call the time of death on this blog?

Shall we say July 30, 2010 12:01pm??????

Westside Bubble said...

Did anyone call the time of death on this blog?

Shall we say July 30, 2010 12:01pm??????


Shall we just say it's in semi-retirement? I will keep up intermittently with main Westside statistics as this long saga continues.

Anonymous said...

Another dead 'bubble' blog. It was fun reading while it lasted. Now all the bubble bloggers lost their jobs along with everyone else. So no one is in the market to buy houses. Those who still have jobs are afraid of losing them. Insecurity is the word du jour. Hussein 0bama gave everyone 'change', alright! Nickles and dimes are all that is left.

It's MOURNING in America.

Anonymous said...

on semi-retirement: I for one always have enjoyed this blog. I'm not a doomsayer nor do I expect any jump in prices, but I do find this blog helpful in keeping track of what's going on in the local housing market. Keep it up!

Anonymous said...

"Did anyone call the time of death on this blog?"

Yes, back in february as the data turned positive, the prognosis appeared bleak:

"This is how all blogs die as the data to support their agenda becomes more and more limited as time goes on and prices correct. I expect this blog has 6 months of active postings left - 12 tops...

February 15, 2010 11:08 AM"

Quite prescient dont you think :)

Westside Bubble said...

It's been interesting to see the evolution of the Housing Bubble from something denied by the MSM while owned by the blogosphere to the ongoing struggle on-high to keep it from further falling.

The story's not done, but my passion for both high-level numbers and individual listings has waned. I'm going to keep inventory totals going, but I'm not sure much beyond that.

I'm not gone, so do check back from time to time.