Friday, January 2, 2009

2008 Wrap-up

1/2/09 - Total Westside inventory, although at a seasonal low, is up 37% over 12/31/07 (graphs will follow).

I didn't expect much of any change from Wednesday 12/31/08 to Friday 1/2/09, and was surprised by more expired listings today, tempered by two listings back on the market attempting to get the jump on 2009.

12/26 - Slight decline for Santa Monica, a little more for Palisades, and a slight increase for Mar Vista, not that I'd expect much of a change over Christmas.

We'll have a lot of year-end wrap-up in the next week or so: large trends over 2008, graphs, and detailed lists.

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market. A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/ 5/08 64 2 92 143 53 1 143 129 72 5 126
12/12/08 62 3 93 154 48 2 136 114 70 6 141
12/19/08 54 3 84 159 52 4 138 126 66 8 149
12/26/08 53 3 82 165 49 5 132 129 67 10 139
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/ 2/09 48 0 75 166 45 0 126 140 61 0 149
1/ 9/09
All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30     8/1    10/3   11/28
2/29 5/2 6/27 8/29 10/31 12/31

Bel Air-H.Hls.85 82 95 100 108 110 115 113 115 113 107 104
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71 67 75 79 80 78 80 72 62 67 66 60
Beverly Hills 65 64 66 78 84 79 90 90 94 98 113 94
B.H. P.O. 78 80 92 95 101 113 118 121 125 123 117 110
B'wood Vic. 50 56 53 57 67 58 53 59 55 55 57 38
Brentwood 77 86 96 104 108 116 115 109 124 140 142 127
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21 19 20 24 25 31 34 33 38 40 41 31
Culver City 42 48 50 57 59 58 49 58 61 63 62 51
Malibu 185 200 213 242 261 266 265 258 240 244 260 231
Malibu Beach 38 49 57 60 50 49 59 61 59 52 59 49
Marina Del Rey26 36 25 25 26 27 32 33 33 35 42 23
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120 108 128 159 151 130
Palms-M.Vista 89 88 82 90 92 96 99 91 84 83 73 63
Playa Del Rey 22 19 15 15 23 24 28 29 26 25 26 23
Playa Vista 5 4 6 5 5 9 9 7 7 8 8 3
Santa Monica 67 68 81 84 79 98 89 79 82 90 91 80
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278 256 292 291 306 269
Topanga 49 44 63 69 66 62 60 61 62 69 88 69
Venice 72 72 74 83 85 77 89 79 83 96 100 81
W.H'wood Vic. 48 51 48 43 46 46 55 62 64 61 55 46
West L.A. 20 18 25 25 25 26 33 27 29 25 23 19
Westchester 72 54 79 86 91 88 82 76 78 77 70 51
W'wood-C.City 37 36 42 49 53 61 67 60 65 71 71 61
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is exceptionally helpful thank you.

Please consider ramping up coverage of the neighborhood between Montana and San Vicente

Many of your readers see no point in buying a SFR in a neighborhood outside that area - we are looking for price declines in that area

Anonymous said...

Back in 1995 you could buy SFRs between Montana and San Vicente for 700 Thousand dollars. (look it up - plenty of homes sold in that price range in that neighborhood in 1995)

Anonymous said...

>>>"Many of your readers see no point in buying a SFR in a neighborhood outside that area - we are looking for price declines in that area"<<<

This is called "Westside Bubble" which includes more areas than north of Montana.

The people who have enough money saved and make enough annually to buy north of Montana don't need this blog.

The prices in the high end areas in California will fall substantially over the next couple of years.

This blog is just like ones in the Bay Area and Manhattan Beach where there is a vocal minority that believes that the bubble prices of their favortie zip codes will NOT fall.

It's amusing to see denial--in fact it is downright comical! The last to acknowledge the existence of the world wide bubble economy and crash that we are experiencing are people with money.

What a bunch of fools....

Anonymous said...

Uhh - you are battling a straw man -

no one on this board is claiming that the prices North of Montana won't fall.

We all believe they will fall.

We are interested in discussing the properties that are on the market North of Montana since we want to discuss - as prices fall

Anonymous said...

Please continue to discuss North of Montana, South of Montana, condos, SFRs, East of the 405, West of the 405, the entire westside! Many of your readers are interested in the entire area.
We are not interested in discussing a small neighborhood in the area.

dwr said...

I would pay money to see where the "please only focus on 90402" crowd 1) currently live, and 2) end up living 5 years from now.

Anonymous said...

Sort of peculiar -

This board is filled to the brim with people pounding the table, screaming at the top of their lungs that real estate is about to crash -

All we hear over and over and over is how the best areas on the west side will plummet.

Then someone actually sticks their head up and says YES - they agree - they are thrilled to learn that this is coming and they want to buy North of Montana after the crash.

Seems like there is no disagreement on this board - everyone agrees that prices will crash -

There ARE readers of this blog that have the cash to buy in the 90402, people that are sane and will wait for prices to plummet


If you can think of a single neighborhood that is of greater interest to the readers of this blog than 90402 please speak up

if not then step back and let this blog continue with its outstanding coverage

Anonymous said...

"If you can think of a single neighborhood that is of greater interest to the readers of this blog than 90402 please speak up"

This blog is called "Westside Bubble" for a reason. There are many among us who are only marginally interested in the 90402. This area will forever be overpriced and overvalued, as it seems. I'm much more interested in the 90405, or even the 90403 and 90404. All of those are more within reach for us.

Anonymous said...

What about the only other SFR neighborhood in SM? Sunset Park....which is still way too much $$$ for me, but more realistic in the short term....

I have small kids and need the SM schools.

And I will say that altough it seems like i'm bitter about not being able to afford GRS/NOMO...I think the South side is more real and lively. 9 of the 12 parks are on the southside, walk to markets, shops and its closer to the beach.

Anonymous said...

We all love Santa Monica, we just love different neighborhoods.

dwr said...

"If you can think of a single neighborhood that is of greater interest to the readers of this blog than 90402 please speak up

if not then step back and let this blog continue with its outstanding coverage"

Since you only post anonymously, why not provide some details about your situation, e.g. the size of down payment you have ready to go, where you currently live (or rent I should say), where you've ever owned before, etc. I think it would be interesting.

I will be buying a place NOM sometime in the next 2-3 years, and I know that NOM is in the process of crashing, but the people on the board who turn their noses at any property anywhere on the westside other than 90402 are, IMO, very likely full of it.

Anonymous said...

If anyone wants more coverage of a certain area, start your own blog, do your own research, or look elsewhere. It's always funny to me when people say things like "consider ramping up" a certain section or "many of your readers see no point" in something. It's a blog, folks, not old media. You can walk away without cancelling your subscription and blog authors can write whatever the hell they want.

Anonymous said...

Right - the blog author can write whatever he wants.

But most blog authors want to hear about what the readership is interested in -

Anonymous said...

My agent tells me that Beverly Hills real estate is really taking it on the chin right now but Santa Monica is doing comparatively well because of the exodus of entertainment industry people from BH -

I am talking about above the line people.

My agent cited Norm Macdonad as an example - he told everyone that he hated BH and rushed to sell his 1,680 square foot condo at 117 North Gale Drive in BH for $650k (deal was recorded on November 14)

He paid almost three times as much for a similarly sized condo in Santa Monica -

There may be some people that prefer BH over SM, but the numbers speak for themselves.

Wooster said...

That's great news! My home's value will be saved by an exodus from Beverly Hills. Thanks for that data point. The struggle is over folks, Santa Monica has survived the fall.

Anonymous said...

"My agent tells me that Beverly Hills real estate is really taking it on the chin right now but Santa Monica is doing comparatively well because of the exodus of entertainment industry people from BH - "

Yeah right. Since the Saudi princes, people with fabulously rich parents, British expats, hedge fund managers, etc. didn't pan out, it's the people from BH who will save SM real estate now.

I don't believe a word what your realtard agent is saying. There is no reason to assume that SM (and the entertainment industry, too) won't be affected by the larger economic forces at work.

Anonymous said...

Call up Norm. His actions speak for themselves

Anonymous said...

"Call up Norm. His actions speak for themselves"

What should I learn from that which I don't already know? One (in numbers: 1) guy who overpaid for a condo in SM? That's supposed to be proof for the mass exodus of entertainment types to SM? I see falling condo and town home prices in SM across the board- speaking a far clearer language.

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks for all the comments while I've been too busy to post very much!

Obviously my primary Westside focus has been on Santa Monica and adjacent Pacific Palisades and Mar Vista, both interesting for themselves and indicative of the range of Westside neighborhoods.

My view is we've seen prices for mainstream north of Montana turn below $2M and Sunset Park turn below $1M.

I'll be posting lists of 2008 outcomes in main neighborhoods, and a more detailed view of the trends I see ahead.