Friday, January 9, 2009

Weekly inventory update

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/ 2/09 48 0 75 166 45 0 126 140 61 0 149
1/ 9/09 57 6 84 166 49 1 136 155 65 5 137
1/16/09

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is interesting

need to think about the streets that the North of Montana homes are on.

Skankiest street in the 90402 is 7th stret - a real superhighway of traffice on that one

Similar is 26th street

probably the third worst street is 14th and then the 4th worst street is 20th steet

All of the 90402 is overpriced but these four streets are the most over priced.

Sellers on these streets are hoping for out of town buyers that don't know the neighborhood

but really many of the houses on these streets are destined to be rentals

Anonymous said...

My friends in the sand section of Manhattan Beach say there is a huge status thing there - home owners vs renters -

Basically the homes there make the 90402 look like a bargain - houses on 3 thousand square foot lots still get 2 million bucks

So in the public schools there the moms have cliques - and the moms that are home owners won't let the moms who are renters in to certain cliques

I know that this sounds silly, but if you doubt it, ask the folks you know in MB about it.

The husbands who know for sure we are in a bubble and who want to rent for a year or two and want to wait until the bubble deflates are pressurd in to buying by wives that don't want to be excluded.

The point is that buying a house is a pre requisite for entry in to certain groups -

I don't endorse this but that is the way it is in MB - so my question is, is the same thing at play in the 90402 - people feeling social pressure to buy even though it is obviously more sane to rent in the 90402?

Anonymous said...

"MB Cliques"; that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

No wonder this bubble economy is crashing all around the world.

Some people are freakin idiots!

"Buy a superinflated house in MB and you'll be in the "In Crowd" at the PTA!"

Anyone with any brains would run away from those arrogant moms and their equally stupid husbands.

I pity their children--they're going to grow up and be disfunctional brats.

Anonymous said...

Yes of course you are right about this - but get back to the point - which of the schools in SM is more like this - Franklin or Roosevelt?

Anonymous said...

Franklin without question. GRS residents don't attend Roosevelt.

Anonymous said...

Have you been to zillow this week? Two houses North of Montana closed escrow at 5.5 million each


People don't spend 5.5 million to be accepted among the other moms.

Now if you look at the smaller houses in GRS selling for 2.0, that could be the motivation there.

You have to differentiate between the crowd buying at 5.5 and the crowd buying at 2.0.

Totally different

Anonymous said...

People buying $5.5mm homes are sending their kids to Crossroads anyway ...

Anonymous said...

There are many progressive people buying $5.5mm homes who send their kids to public school in the elementary years.

Anonymous said...

yes
go talk to the principal and assistant principal at franklin - plenty of GRS kids at franklin

Franklin is more placid than some other SM schools - less conflict between the haves and have mores at Franklin than at some others ...

Anonymous said...

It's discussion like these that make me realize why my dad, despite having a wealthy family, refuses to associate with anyone other than blue collar (proletariat) types. Man, the thought of kids growing up to perpetuate classist attitude is just plain nasty.

Anonymous said...

My agent says that Bertram Van Munster and his wife, Elise Doganieri are touting the 90402 to their friends in Beverly Hills. The 90402 is more "real"

Van Munster just put his money where his mouth is, writing a check for $5.5 million in cold hard cash to buy a place in the 90402 when he could have gotten a bigger place in BH for the same money.

More details are in the 90402 only blog set up by latesummer ( thank you latesummer)
http://tinyurl.com/90402

Anonymous said...

"My agent says that Bertram Van Munster and his wife, Elise Doganieri are touting the 90402 to their friends in Beverly Hills. The 90402 is more "real"

But for the record, you're a "mega bear", correct?

Anonymous said...

Yes - i posted about the celebrities moving from BH to 90402. And yes I am a bear.

Why does that surprise you? Would you take advice from a celebrity as to which stocks to buy? Where to go to college? They don't represent a good group to emulate.

You are stupid to emulate them or to forecast real estate prices based on their actions.

Wooster said...

Michael Douglas got me into MSFT in 1987 and Ben Affleck told me to short JDSU in 2000. I made a killing. They aren't stockbrokers, they just play them in movies.

Anonymous said...

Wooster -

it is hard for me to understand which of the posts here are jokes and which are meant to be taken seriously

LateSummer1996 said...

"it is hard for me to understand which of the posts here are jokes and which are meant to be taken seriously"

That's funny. I thought it was obvious that every comment about 90402 is tongue-in-cheek.