Saturday, January 24, 2009

Weekly inventory update

1/24/09 - Big jump for the week in Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades inventories, from 12 net new listings each plus relistings of previously expired/withdrawn. In contrast, Mar Vista was about flat for the week and month so far.

Even bigger news is new price cuts, including our north of Montana indicators 320 9th Street (photo) from $1,999K to $1,895K, 209 25th Street from $2,050K to $1,899K, and more-fixed-up 620 22nd Street relisted from $2,395K to $2,249K.

1/17/09 - Inventory was pretty flat for the week, but the total doesn't reflect old listings expiring, former listings back on the market, a few new listings, and a couple into escrow.

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/ 2/09 48 0 75 166 45 0 126 140 61 0 149
1/ 9/09 57 6 84 166 49 1 136 155 65 5 137
1/16/09 56 7 83 181 49 5 144 160 63 6 135
1/23/09 62 12 89 185 55 12 155 140 62 8 138
1/20/09

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

one common theme on this board is a posting from someone who is a good hearted liberal - tolerant of the homeless and the edgy seedy vibe of santa monica - this person that says they like santa monica because of the edgy seedy vibe feels that many people with money wouldn't like the same thing and thus says that santa monica should be cheaper than beverly hills

from my humble perspective, the liberal yuppie types don't seem to understand that they are not unique individuals but rather that they are part of a cohort of thousands of other young yuppie liberals that prefer sm to bh

so the bottom line is, if you are a liberal yuppie and love SM just be aware that there are thousand like you that you are bidding against for housing. Don't be surprised if SM goes up relative to BH


if you are a liberal type of person that doesn't make the kind of money needed to live in SM, and you are hoping that the rent control and homeless and etc. will force out the wealthy folks and make prices go down, please think again. The high earning urban hipster crowd likes SM and they aren't going away.

So i forecast SM exceeding BH in price

perhaps this is from BH going down 30% and SM down 10% - i don't know
but in manhattan at least the hip edgy trendy neighborhoods have appreciated much much faster than the bastions of "0ld money"

years ago soho apartments used to be one tenth the price of upper east side apartments and now the gap has closed so that soho is actually MORE expensive than upper east side.

bottom line is if you love SM because of the edginess and rough edges, consider that there are thousands of other people just like you

dwr said...

"bottom line is if you love SM because of the edginess and rough edges, consider that there are thousands of other people just like you"

you forgot to include your contact information in case someone wants to use your realtor services.

Anonymous said...

Same thing with the Meat Packing district - the prices shot way up higher than the Upper East Side.

The "edgy" crowd

dwr said...

It's great to see these price cuts, but 320 9th is one gigantic mess, and if it sells for over $1.5million, then that will truly be a depressing event. I can't even imagine being one of the suckers who paid over $2 million for a house like that a year ago.

On the bright side, there were tons of open houses NOM today, and very little traffic. I didn't see a single celebrity or oil sheik either.

Anonymous said...

What if the sky does not fall?

tbgpalisades said...

Ah, the Palisades.

I was thinking today of the ridiculus $80,000 price cuts on $1.475MM list homes, as if that'll get'em moving. Then I realized, most of the people in these homes, never made the $350M+ it takes to afford them. To them, $80M is a lot of money, in some cases, as much as many of them made in a year.

Look, it's not rocket science. Prices will stabilize at income levels. It's just that everyone was banking on their windfall, and it takes a long time for people to realize that the true income levels here are much less than are admitted.

I think the '09 selling season will finally drive this home.

Oh, BTW, CS is released on Tuesday! I can't wait to see the new declines documented!

dwr said...

"What if the sky does not fall?"

It already is, but I fear latesummer2009 will have to change his name (again).

Westside Bubble said...

edgy seedy vibe of santa monica

LOL! When, thirty years ago?

Nothing edgy seedy north of Montana, that's for sure, just staid McMansions surrounded by manicured yards.

Wooster said...

Yuppie? What is this, the 80's?

Anonymous said...

"...consider that there are thousands of other people just like you"

Sorry anon 11:19, but there are NOT thousands of people bidding on these home in SM. Currently, there are 286 listings in SM, at an average of $1.1mil, averaging 97 DOM (and we all know that many have been relisted, so the true DOM # is actually greater).

Realtors should be held accountable for their statements. I'm not into frivolous lawsuits, but i really wish that someone would sue their realtor for false claims made.

Anonymous said...

Westside,

Can you comment on the sales numbers, avg. price and # of closed sales in calendar year 2008 for Santa Monica?

It seems sales are slightly down, but prices up? And the total number of houses sold in SM in 2008 was down vs. 2007?

Looking for SFR not condo info here....

Anonymous said...

2 friends in Pac Pal RE say things have picked up over the last two weeks.....showings more than deals but they feel things "improving". My appraiser friend has also been busier in the last few weeks than all of last year's final 6 months. What do you see and hear?

Anonymous said...

A few friends and I starting to look again thinking prices have dropped. Turns out prices have dropped on our current homes as every offer is way under list price and are thus rejected. But prices have not dropped on the homes we want to buy as the sellers reject our low ball offers.

Nothing is going to happen until all the other sellers realize their homes have dropped in value and the buyers realize that my home has not dropped in value.

Anonymous said...

Edgy, seedy? How awesome would Santa Monica be if I didn't have a heroin addict in my alley? I'm a liberal and tolerant guy, but let's be serious. Santa Monica would feel about the same without them, but the alleys, alcoves, and entryways would smell better, people would be a little safer, and most would be happier without the seedy element. Without the "seedy" it would still be "edgy" as you say. I grew up very poor, had to move a lot because my dad was not so good at holding down a job, and we were effectively homeless a few times, so I understand the plight, but I simply cannot see it as something constructive to a positive vibe in Santa Monica, nor can I see it attracting "thousands of other young yuppie liberals" into a bidding war. I just think Santa Monica is more highly valued because of two things:

1. proximity to the ocean
2. decent public schools

Otherwise it's no better nor has more character than most Los Angeles enclaves.

Anonymous said...

Hmmmm I think I agree with the last poster...

I would also throw in good fwy access, great food, decent shopping, the usual yuppie farmer's markets and a walkable city.That and the temperature is always pretty moderate, unlike the dreaded 818'ers.

dwr said...

"2 friends in Pac Pal RE say things have picked up over the last two weeks.....showings more than deals but they feel things "improving"."

Real estate agents are bullish on the housing market!?!? STOP THE PRESSES!!

"My appraiser friend has also been busier in the last few weeks than all of last year's final 6 months."

Refis?

dwr said...

I went looking at open houses in 90402 this past weekend and the agents said some very interesting things:
1) "There are buyers out there. They also have 20% to put down. They just can't qualify for the loans." [You mean you actually have to make $700K to afford a $3 million home? Who knew?]

2) Several agents admitted that their listings were "way overpriced".

Westside Bubble said...

Very interesting, indeed. Thanks, DWR!