Tuesday, January 27, 2009

November S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's November 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 35.8% from its peak in September 2006, back to January 2004 levels. Notice how symmetrical it has been (unlike the DataQuick median prices). It's still retracing another month with each new month passed.

By month that's 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 26.6% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $338,539, $338,539 - $511,777, and Over $511,777; updated for November). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 47.0%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down a steeper 2.3% to 26.1% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to March 2004.


Marty Zigman said...

I can demonstrate that there are some neighborhoods on the westside that appear to be flat or have gone up in price for the last two years and are against the trend illustrated by the Case Shiller Los Angeles High Tier price index. Pacific Palisades, Beverly Hills and Hermosa Bearch. See the images here (bottom of page):


This really is difficult for renters that are looking to buy in those neighborhoods as the prices are still way out of line. I suspect it has to do with minimal foreclosures in these communities; or buyers are still in a fantasy about the values...

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks, Marty. Median price is, of course, tricky depending on the mix of houses sold in a month. Although it appears your smoothed price trend for 90402 is consistent with Case-Shiller.

That's why I've focused on an index of low-end sales for an area as a more consistent indicator.

Anonymous said...

does anyone know what 2450 euclid sold for