Monday, January 19, 2009

December DataQuick

Today's December DataQuick numbers declined yet again. Median prices are now down 41.8% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 32% from December 2007 and 16% from November 2008, but are still below previous years. (November DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to July 2003, Orange County to March 2003, Ventura County to November 2002, and San Diego still at March 2002.

Good overview summary by DataQuick

The core trends of Southern California's 2008 housing market were on prominent display in December: Low-cost inland foreclosures sold briskly, builders had their worst month in decades, expensive markets remained in wait-and-see mode and lenders continued to hold back on making 'jumbo' home loans
and comment by Calculated Risk
This makes a few key points ... Significant price declines are probably coming in the more expensive areas. (price follows volume).

And here's an interesting revisit of my August 2007 post, "Return to historic costs/income" that quoted:

O.C. real estate consultant John Burns is telling his clients: “For prices to return to their historical median ratio of housing costs/income, national prices would need to revert back to ...

2003 Q3: Los Angeles
2003 Q1: Orange County
2002 Q2: San Diego

I posted a graph based on DataQuick median prices of what that could look like. The update of that graph shows steeper drops, that have already gone below the targets in Los Angeles and San Diego!


Anonymous said...

Those price/income levels don't account for falling incomes in a weakening job market. They also don't seem to take into account the lack of jumbo financing, not to mention the lack of buyers that can qualify for a jumbo.

Obviously things are skewed toward the low end, with the majority of sales on the lower end, but it definitely seems like we'll 'over correct' on the downward slide.

Anonymous said...

837 lincoln unit 3 just sold for 214k

1139 sq feet

this is pretty cheap --
anyone know the story here >

Anonymous said...

These figures don't reflect 90402--Palmdale and Lawndale are crashing but this will only strengthen the prices for prime real estate like 90402.

Wooster said...

No real estate in California will escape this. 90402 will only maintain its relative price premium to other areas.

Anonymous said...

Uh - at the peak a house that would cost 3 mil in 90402 cost 600k in palmdale

so if the house in palmdale goes down by 400k do you say the house in 90402 goes down by 400k,

or does the house in 90402 go down by 66%

what do you mean ?

the difference is huge -

Anonymous said...

John Burns is talking trash. How can Q3-2003 be the reasonable level for LA County? Home price went up from $200k to $300k between 2000~2003? 2003 price is definitely inflated.