Sunday, January 27, 2013

2012 Inventory wrap-up

 
The big story for 2012 was much lower MLS inventory numbers throughout the year, for both Santa Monica less than $3 million and the Westside in general (the orange bars). Anecdotally desirable houses are selling very quickly, an expected result of low inventory and searching buyers.
 
We'll see if the trend continues in 2013. Will potential sellers allegedly waiting for a better market finally list? What about remaining foreclosures?

 
All Westside
              1/29/12    3/30     6/1    7/27    9/28   11/30
                      3/2    4/29    6/29    8/31    11/2   12/28  

Bel Air-Holmby H.  99  94  96  90 100 107 103  99 104 100  92  79
Beverly Ctr.-M.M.  51  44  47  44  49  49  48  40  30  29  36  26
Beverly Hills      85  82  89  98  98 100 107  97  83  76  67  58
B.Hills P.O.      107  96  98  95  97 101 100  90  86  89  75  68
Beverlywood Vic.   51  44  38  44  43  40  39  34  34  30  22  21
Brentwood          87  94  92 104 104  83  85  75  85  67  66  48
Cheviot-R.Park '8' 19  14  16  22  19  19  21  17  11   4   6   5
Culver City        31  29  36  37  37  42  34  42  39  30  18  16
Malibu            174 198 191 189 192 186 180 164 155 137 139 122
Malibu Beach       82  77  71  71  74  85  83  83  74  67  67  57
Marina Del Rey     17  22  19  24  20  12  16  13  10  10   8   7
Pacific Palisades  89  94  89  96 114 111 107  90 101  76  66  54
Palms-Mar Vista    66  61  53  56  46  43  53  41  45  34  35  21
Playa Del Rey      19  23  16  14  10  13  11   8  10  10  11   7
Playa Vista         1   2   3   4   5   2   2   2   2   1   0   0
Santa Monica       55  57  56  61  61  66  54  49  51  41  42  27
Sunset-Hwd.Hills  192 188 188 203 213 212 209 183 189 186 162 126
Topanga            48  53  53  51  50  52  46  42  42  36  35  29
Venice             60  69  57  67  59  59  53  37  50  39  37  30
W.Hollywood Vic.   28  26  32  35  35  33  30  35  22  23  21  17
West L.A.          33  31  31  27  25  20  23  13  22  19  18  10
Westchester        45  38  33  45  44  39  46  36  23  27  26  22
Westwood-Cent.City 39  43  41  44  46  36  42  30  30  23  20  10
                  ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 

2012 Totals      1478    1445    1541    1492    1298    1069
                     1479    1521    1510    1320    1154     860
2011 Totals      1695    1797    2013    2022    1921    1648
                     1802    1908    1995    1896    1821    1397
2010 Totals      1585    1745    1998    2129    2094    1831    
                     1691    1910    2038    2064    2062    1509
2009 Totals      2027    2281    2196    2233    2034    1827 
                     2205    2262    2160    2133    1979    1486 
2008 Totals      1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128 
                     1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822 
2007 Totals      1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600 
                     1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329 
See 2007, 20082009, 2010, and 2011 monthly totals. Santa Monica here omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office).

3 comments:

Andrew Jones said...

Hi, your blog has been a valuable asset to regular folks trying to figure out what's going on in the real estate market, especially in the year or so before the big crash in 08’. Thanks banks!

However, I think that you’ve been giving people the wrong impression over the last year or so. Posting statistics, but not analyzing what they mean and the ‘let’s wait and see what the market does’ commentary is now misleading to potential home buyers (at least in L.A.’s beach cities and the Westside.)

Sales of properties on the beaches and Westside in L.A. finally began moving (some) in 2011 and started picking up momentum towards in the summer of that year. By February 2012 far more homes had sold or were pending in the previous few of months than were listed for sale at the time. This trend continued throughout 2012 and the inventory homes (especially the more affordable ones) was an increasingly severe problem all year.

By the spring of this year (2013) the inventory of affordable properties closer to the beach has now been completely stripped and we’re seeing many properties selling in under a month with multiple offers on them. Higher-end properties have also been moving quickly and the existing inventory of these properties for sale is now a real problem as well.

The significantly declining number of total sales on the Westside in the second half of 2012 is in no way a reflection of a faltering market and there’s nothing anecdotal about it. We’re in a major seller’s market on the Westside right now and the supply of homes for sale is nowhere close to meeting the high-demand going into the summer season. I saw many buyers get frustrated with the lack of options over the last year and abandon the possibility of getting an affordable home closer to the water altogether.

Interestingly, all of this didn’t start translating into higher prices until last fall (2012.) It’s actually difficult to get a handle on what prices are doing this year (2013) because there are so few current sales to analyze due to the extremely low inventory.

I can’t comment on what effect the mysterious backlog of foreclosures held by the banks (thanks again,) government layoffs, and the various economic crises brewing around the globe will have in the future. Obviously there are a lot of unresolved long-cycle issues to consider as the country continues to wean itself from the post WWII ‘sugar high’ over the next 10 or 20 years, but it seems to me that for all intensive purposes the market has clearly stabilized over the last couple of years and is recovering significantly.

Best Regards,

Andrew Jones / Realtor
Venice, CA

STIFFLER JHON said...

Sales of properties on the beaches and Westside in L.A. finally began moving (some) in 2011 and started picking up momentum towards in the summer of that year. By February 2012 far more homes had sold or were pending in the previous few of months than were listed for sale at the time. This trend continued throughout 2012 and the inventory homes (especially the more affordable ones) was an increasingly severe problem all year.


Midtown Miami Real Estate | Midtown Miami Condos

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks, Andrew, for the detail. Any more thoughts on why inventory remains so low?

For me, I'll continue to document these statistics post-bubble.