Monday, February 23, 2009

Not selling in Sunset Park

To complete our updates on stagnant inventory this month, here's inventory over 30 days on the market in Santa Monica's Sunset Park (east of Lincoln, south of Pico), that we last visited May 16, 2008.

2/23/09 - 20
5/16/08 - 14
1/16/08 - 14
12/15/07 - 15
11/14/07 - 24
10/15/07 - 19
9/13/07 - 16
8/15/07 - 12
7/14/07 - 13

Of 20 houses over 30 days on the market (up nearly 50% from spring 2008), 14 are over 90 days (red below) and 1 is from 2007 (bolded below). Looking for price reductions that will drive prices down, we find 14 (2/3) have reduced, including 5 of 15% or more. And there are more listed within the last 30 days.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date

819 Pier, 2/1, $625K (-42%), 5/9/08
2219 14th, 2/3, $725K, 1/18/09
1213 Oak, 2/1.5, $795K (-11%), 9/17/08
1008 Bay, 2/1, $849K (-5%), 1/5/09
2329 32nd, 2/1, $899K, 11/7/08
2633 30th, 3/3, $990K (-23%), 1/4/09
1514 Maple, 2/2, $998K, 1/8/09

2455 Cloverfield, 3/1.5, $1,019K (-7%), 11/19/08
1328 Hill (photo), 3/2, $1,098 (-14%), 6/30/08
1731 Cedar, 3/1, $1,100 (-15%), 1/18/08
3023 Glenn, 3/3, $1,100K, 1/22/09
2424 31st, 3/2, $1,175K (-4%), 11/24/08
1027 Ashland, 4/1.75, $1,249 (-10%), 4/25/08
1643 Hill, 5/4, $1,350K (-27%), 8/5/08
1731 Wellesley, 4/3, $1,400K (-7%), 9/11/08
2222 Marine, 4/4, $1,450K (-27%), 5/17/07

2904 Pearl, 4/4, $1,650K (-11%), 6/24/08
1208 Sunset, 4/4, $1,795K, 11/1/08
1214 Pearl, 4/4.5, $1,825K (-14%), 10/8/08
1701 Oak, 4/3, $1,895K, 10/28/08

53 comments:

Wooster said...

I can't believe anything in Sunset Park is over $1,000,000.

Anonymous said...

i agree with you, Wooster. That's too much to pay for the area. You'll see these prices come down soon.

Anonymous said...

I agree - prices are coming down soon. I am going to rent a house in sunset park, not buy

does anyone have a map of the section 8 housing in sunset park ?

I need to rent far from section 8 for the reasons you would expect

Anonymous said...

I believe most of the section 8 housing is north of Pico, which is not Sunset Park thankyouverymuch.

Anonymous said...

"I can't believe anything in Sunset Park is over $1,000,000."

What should a brand new, 3500 SF home on a nice street in Sunset Park cost?

Anonymous said...

Stock market sunk to 1997 levels today. Any thoughts that real estate could eventually do this also? A decline of that magnitude has happened before in other real estate cycles, peak to trough.....

Anonymous said...

"Stock market sunk to 1997 levels today"

Declining Real Estate value still better than stock !
go get (at least ) one :-)
and get tax free 'profit' < 250K

Anonymous said...

I'm not going to buy a damn thing, not on the Westside at least. On the Westside the sellers are still in complete denial, their listing prices are insulting they are either (A) living in a cave and have no idea real estate has been in a massive Bubble for 9 years or (B) can't price to market because they put no money down.

The best thing to do is to buy in places where they got the message, like Burbank or the valley, or else wait until these West LA sellers get foreclosed on, bust out or capitulate after taking even heavier losses. They won't learn any other way, they're like terrorists you just can't negotiate with them. Wait for them to Bust out.

Anonymous said...

anon 4:02, is that the new meme for "bitter renter"? Sad how far the bulls have fallen.

Anonymous said...

zipskinny says median household income in 90405 is $50,540, vs. $118,553 in 90402. That feels, if anything, like it understates the diff because Sunset Park is not the nicest part of the 90405, that's Ocean Park. I just don't see how a neighborhood with median income of <100K (here I'm being extremely generous and assuming the census stuff could be off by 100%) could possibly justify many $1M houses in the hood. A decent house in SP should be more like $600K or so.

Anonymous said...

"does anyone have a map of the section 8 housing in sunset park ?"

In 90405, you are never more than a Tiger Woods tee shot away from Section 8. Maybe the zip code should be changed to 90408 to remind potential buyers and renters what they are really getting into.

Anonymous said...

I agree - section 8 is nearby.

The article talks about what this means

http://tinyurl.com/the90405

Anonymous said...

Pushing Section 8 and 'affordable housing' the last 10 years is SMRR's last gasp revenge on the city. Think of it as SMRR's march to the sea - laying waste to as many gentrifying areas as possible before they are drummed out.

george c tilyou said...

Sunset Park is a very safe hood with great schools with a wonderful community vibe. The median income is not a viable stat bec sunset has many residents who have been here for generations. The newer residents, as in most of Santa Monica are more affluent. I believe Sunset is a bargain compared to zips with tons of ugly apartment buildings like 90403. Sunset will only get better. I also have no problem with section X housing which is scattered all over Santa Monica. I see mostly working class people who add to the diversity of our area. You people are afraid of your shadows and give our community a bad name.

Anonymous said...

george c tilyou you are correct

Sunset Park will only improve over time.

section 8 won't won't stop Sunset park from getting really nice

however the article seems to indicate that there are some very good reasons to not move to a block with lots of section 8 in sunset park but rather to move a few blocks away from the section 8

Anonymous said...

I think there are very few examples of homes in Sunset Park that should be $1,000,000. There are some great homes in SP.

Anonymous said...

Sunset Park has some nice homes to be sure, but you really need to wear your blinders in order to live there. How anyone can consider an area nice with Pico to the North and Lincoln Blvd. to the west is beyond me. You're not just buying a home, you're also choosing the neighbors, the streets, the businesses, the community. What I don't understand is that with the bubble came almost no re-investment in these blighted areas that border Sunset Park. It may as well be 1997 on Pico and Lincoln Blvd because they look exactly the same.

Anonymous said...

About the only visible changes to Lincoln and Pico since 1997 is a 50% reduction in hookers (thank you SM police) and a 50% increase in automoble trafic. The area is woefully under-invested versus the rest of SM, and will remain so for years to come.

Anonymous said...

Let me guess, the previous two anons both rent nasty rent controlled apartments, somewhere around Wilshire?

FYI, I remember reading that burglaries are more common in the 90402 and 90403 than in Sunset Park.

Oooh, it's so scary living in Santa Monica. Run away to Idaho!

Anonymous said...

"That feels, if anything, like it understates the diff because Sunset Park is not the nicest part of the 90405, that's Ocean Park."

Aside from the houses west of Nielson (which are clearly the best part of 90405, if not all of SM), Ocean Park is not so nice, unless you like being surrounded by apartment dwellers. Ewww!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the link to the Atlantic article on Section 8 housing and crime. In other areas I have lived I have spent time in section 8 housing developments and all of them were creepy with embedded poverty and people maintaining a portfolio of entitlements. There were a few people who were obviously temporary and would get out eventually, but most were there for life and their children were learning the same. All of them were all-white because I was in Eastern Washington state and Utah which are more predominantly white. The article's emphasis on race was unnecessary. The problems are of class and education, not race.

I looked up statistics on crime, income and education and Ladera Heights is looking very good to me. Westchester is also nice. When I was looking at homes the residents all just put their kids into private schools to avoid LA Unified. Private schools are much cheaper than moving to Northern Santa Monica, Brentwood or the Palisades.

People who don't think that section 8 hurts neighborhoods have their heads in the sand. The research is pretty clear on that. In our last rental new section 8 was built while we were there on the corner of 26th and SM Blvd. The tagging started immediately as soon as the renters moved in.

Anonymous said...

@ anon 10:40: Try making your point without being insulting and someone might give your opinion some credibility. You are way off the mark in your assumptions, but it's the anonymous internet so who cares anyway. How about this: Anyone reading this who doesn't know about Sunset Park can simply drive up Lincoln Blvd. and Pico Blvd. and judge for themselves if this qualifies as a "nice area." I was simply pointing out the obvious. And hey, a 50% reduction in hookers, things are looking up!

Anonymous said...

"I also have no problem with section X housing which is scattered all over Santa Monica. I see mostly working class people who add to the diversity of our area."

Simple calculation for 90405:

Diversity + Bubble Pop = one heck of a price drop and a lot of foreclosures, more percentage-wise than the other less-diverse SM zip codes.

Anonymous said...

I aspire to 90405. Its a nice walkable, community oriented neighborhood (esp. south of OPB) which has great cafes and the best local grocery store in L.A....Bob's Mkt. Walk to the beach, and to great parks...can't say that for GRS area.


Way more real then 90402....less rich kids doing drugs too.

You people who complain about section 8...pllleeeaaaseeee!

Anonymous said...

"rather to move a few blocks away from the section 8"

There was a guy who posted the addresses for about 75 "Section 8" buildings to a thread about three months ago, the result was there is NOWHERE in santa monica more than abour three blocks from a "section 8" building... and that only counted dedicated buildings. If you're talking about units within buildings it's even denser.

If you're really interested, I plotted them on a map:

More that 50% were West of 14th.

More than 50% were in 90403/90402.

BY FAR the fewest were in the numbered streets 20-34 in Sunset Park.

Anonymous said...

"Anyone reading this who doesn't know about Sunset Park can simply drive up Lincoln Blvd. and Pico Blvd. and judge for themselves if this qualifies as a "nice area."

Yep, that gives the entire feel for the whole neighborhood. You're a genius.

Anonymous said...

Wow. Reading all this fear mongering blather about poor people and people of color (that's what "Section 8" is code for y'all) is simply mind boggling. You ever stop to wonder whether Santa Monica is in "distress" not because of the relative decrease in SFR values, but rather, because folks increasingly don't care about the health of all sections of their community?

mambo chicken said...

reading this thread i feel compelled to add my two cents. I owned in 90402 for 20 years. then bought a small apt. bldg south of wilshire, north of ariz. in 90404 and live there with my grown family compound style for the last 6 years. 90402 is way better than 90405 (except for area west of 4th). 90405 does have some negatives and the prices will reflect it. 90402 is as good as it gets on the west side. nice commuity, easy walking to montana, etc. franklin./rooselvelt/lincoln still great schools. i would not send my kid to SH high though anymore though.

renter's rights rules this town. it's good and bad and if more property owners got involved in local governement and with community organizations it could be great. Everytime we think of moving to a better beach town, we can't find it.

Anonymous said...

"renter's rights rules this town. it's good and bad"

You're half right.

Anonymous said...

"90402 is way better than 90405"

Way to go out on a limb with that one!

Anonymous said...

"renter's rights rules this town. it's good and bad and if more property owners got involved in local governement and with community organizations it could be great."

Agreed. Most long-term apartment owners from the 70's (there are still a lot of them) threw up their hands in disgust at rent control and simply let their buildings go to heck. The buildings I know about that went into estate trusts are nothing but cash cows for the estate beneficiaries, especially when they start getting more market rents. The rental pride of ownership is almost extinct in this city, which has left us with a lot of ugly soft-story eyesores that need a stucco job and some landscaping.

Anonymous said...

wow - 1:28 thanks for your comment.

you sound like a person that really cares - just like gerald levin - who cared so much that he sent his son to spend time trying to teach the section 8 kids. He wound up murdered by one of the section 8 kids he was trying to help.

Wonder if it will take a murder in your family to teach you what section 8 is doing to santa monica.

Google "gerald levin time warner son murder" for the details on section 8

Anonymous said...

"Wonder if it will take a murder in your family to teach you what section 8 is doing to santa monica.

Google "gerald levin time warner son murder" for the details on section 8"

What a ridiculous comment. What if anything does a sad event in 1997 that happened in the Bronx have to do with Santa Monica of today?

Westside Bubble said...

These comments about Section 8 are heading in the direction of the homeless and crime topics that belong elsewhere. Ok?

Anonymous said...

I suspect the Section 8 poster is identical to the Homeless in SM Troll and the Gangs in SM Troll.

Westside, please don't let this troll infest your blog.

Anonymous said...

Let's keep this discussion focused on real estate values and what it is that determines real estate values

at the end of the day, real estate values in SM are determined by INCOMES and by ABILITY TO BORROW

frankly, SM is attractive enough that a few negatives won't dramatically push down prices

only LOWER incomes and only HARDER to borrow

Anonymous said...

" suspect the Section 8 poster is identical to the Homeless in SM Troll and the Gangs in SM Troll."

Such an ignorant. First, I've brought up the problem of the dangerous vagrants in the other thread, and I've said nothing about Section 8 on this thread.

Second, just because someone wants to clean up their neighborhood and improve it, doesn't mean they are "trolls" and you can use Political Correctness to beat them into silence. Just to feel good about yourself, at the expense of your neighbors. Think before you open your mouth.

Anonymous said...

Sounds like there are three different people on this board

(1) the person concerned about homeless bothering their kids, especially when the kids play in reed park (this person really cares about the 90403 - I get the sense that this person would be just fine if the police kept the homeless south of the ten the same way the police keep the homeless south of montana now)

(2) the person concerned about the gangbangers who murder people around pico

(3) the person concerned about section 8 since section 8 tenants are responsible for a huge wave of crime as documented in the atlantic

Anonymous said...

The discussion of section 8, homeless, crime, etc is officially over.

What drives prices in Santa Monica is EMPLOYMENT

people that feel confident in their jobs will buy a house. People that don't feel confident won't

it is a simple as that

end of discussion

Read the news on what is happening to all the high paying jobs in West LA and you will see prices are going down

__

Check the paper today for articles about legal job market - let's see what this does for the lawyer crowd in 90403 and 90402 - only place hiring is the one that was posted earlier - 10 dollars an hour

.

Trope, 43, is an attorney with 15 years of experience, and she said lawyers are losing their jobs in droves.

When people in banking and the mortgage industry were getting the heave-ho, it came as no surprise. In fact, on Friday I spoke to a banking executive with 20,000 employees under him who got fired in December after 21 years on the job. But I would have thought anyone with a law degree would be able to talk their way out of a layoff, file for an injunction, whatever.

Not so. Trope told me it's gotten much worse of late, and when I made some phone calls and checked on the Internet, I found that law firms in California and throughout the nation have been handing out pink slips by the dozens and the hundreds.

Anonymous said...

It is more than jobs that drive sales, it is also the cost of renting versus buying. A number of us on this blog could buy and do not because it does not make sense yet. We are getting closer in some areas, but west side sellers are still delusional.

Those who are delusional are more likely to be overextended and unable to either get financing or pay cash. As it is we have a stand off with few properties moving.

No matter how good a nieghborhood is people cannot charge more than buyers are willing to pay. After my 2 years in 90404 and 1/2 year in 90025 I love living over here, but I cannot see paying so much more than it costs me to rent in order to buy.

I am looking at neighborhoods further south. I like Westchester and Ladera Heights.

Anonymous said...

"It is more than jobs that drive sales, it is also the cost of renting versus buying. A number of us on this blog could buy and do not because it does not make sense yet. We are getting closer in some areas, but west side sellers are still delusional. "

That includes me. I could have bought back in 2004 and thought prices were in a bubble back then (which they were). The problem is that most of the sellers in the Westside are underwater--many are flippers/realtors, many are people who bought during the 2000-2007 bubble years. So, they have no room to cut the list price to reality, because they have no equity in the house.

Given the above, plus the fact that inventory is now growing, my conclusion is that prices on the Westside are not going to go down slowly--they are going to go down faster than anyone here anticipates this year, because the listers are on the verge of being foreclosed on. Again, it's because most of these Westside sellers they have little equity (explains the stubborn asking prices and 300-day long on the market listings).

So the only thing to do if you're a buyer is wait for these greedy flippers and reckless westside buyers to bust out, and be shoved out of these houses already by the banks so they can be listed at normal non-Bubble prices.

The Westside will always cost 50% more than the other good burbs of LA, but right now they are much higher than that even and will need to correct some 30-40% down from today's list prices.

Arti

amax said...

As an out of State Realtor, I have been doing my homework on this area.
Thank you for your thoughts and assistance.

WeHo Homes said...

... and be shoved out of these houses already by the banks so they can be listed at normal non-Bubble prices.

... assuming the banks are listing them at "normal non-Bubble prices" is still is a stretch based on what I've seen, but I agree that at some point (when?) the banks need to slash and burn, which will equate to "true" market-clearing prices.

The good news is, given the deepening recession talk and continued stock market decline, maybe the "weak hands"/"knife catchers", as they've been called elsewhere, are officially out of the market, stopping any remaining support on the downside.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the underwater listers. IMO many HO's are not making payments on their loans and the banks are either not foreclosing or are prohibited from foreclosing. Which leads me to believe that there are many "Zombie" HO's. So the question is, when will the lenders actually begin foreclosures. Until then there seems to be no real incentive for HO's to drop their prices to realistic levels.

Anonymous said...

Well I said what I said because there is no reason at all any listing should languish on the MLS more than 30 days. Buyers ARE out there, there are thousands with enough equity in prior homes and/or savings and incomes that want to trade up, etc. We've seen time and again on this blog and on the Santa Monica Distress Monitor blog that as soon as a seller gets serious and lists at market, the house gets snatched up in as little as 15 days on the MLS.

So to recap, this is a prime area, and there are lots of buyers. The only reason there is no buying going on is that the sellers who have room to cut to market are in denial, while the rest (probably the majority) are flippers or reckless buyers who don't have any equity left. So they CAN'T cut.

Which is why the buyers are forced to sit it out, until these deadbeat sellers get busted out and we can have a "market" in real estate again and Realtors can have work to do again and I can actually make some offers.

Arti

Westside Bubble said...

I agree, Arti. The good news is that some sellers are reducing their prices. At some point new sales will close and lower comps will be established.

Westside Bubble said...

The listing of the photo house at 1328 Hill was just WITHDRAWN yesterday. Coincidence?

george c tilyou said...

As someone from Brooklyn, I appreciate the community feel and the diversity of age, income and race in Sunset Park. It is a special area and will get much better when the economy improves. While Lincoln is a pit everywhere, Pico has a lot of potential. It already has sone nice shops. I think Sunset could become an area closer in spirit to Park Slope or somwhere in San Francisco one day. Some of you sound like you'd be better off in a gated community. I truly believe 90405 has a huge potential. Its a great area.

Anonymous said...

"I truly believe 90405 has a huge potential. Its a great area."

No one here truly disputes this george, that's why Santa Monica will always sell at a premium. What we dispute is that the houses there are worth anything near the laughable list prices you're seeing now.

It's VERY simple: during the Bubble they went up 150% up for no good reason. Now they're going to go down 50% from their peak prices. There's plenty of buyers, but they're not buying until prices are half what they were at least at the top of the Bubble.

george c tilyou said...

"Now they're going to go down 50% from their peak prices."

if you are correct and houses drop 50 percent in sunset park, that means you will be able to but a nice bungalow on a good block for less then $500,000-if that is the case i will buy every single one of them.

george

Anonymous said...

"if you are correct and houses drop 50 percent in sunset park . . . i will buy every single one of them.

george"

Then why didn't you at any time between 1932 and 2001. Buy them and hold them forever, because they're not coming back up anytime soon. When there's no bubble, homes go up about 2% a year, if that. Of course you wouldn't know that.

Anonymous said...

This one is trying to sell since July 2008, price is not moving:
http://www.loopnet.com/property/15666773/1044-Grant-St/

Anonymous said...

What a diverse thread--I've been so enamored of apparently affordable Sunset Park that I was oblivious to Section 8, gangbangers on Pico, decay on Lincoln. When you like a neighborhood, you tend to overlook many things, but, as a potential buyer from outside the area, I'll certainly consider these matters as additional pieces of infomation...and, no, I don't live in a gated community.

Crime stats, just like school quality stats, should be part of any buyer's decision, not just the look at the granite kitchen counter top-type information dispensed by realtors. "Check with city" when it comes to schools say the set-up sheets often.

Then add "Check with police" about safety.