Friday, May 16, 2008

Not selling in Sunset Park

To round out Santa Monica, here's an update on inventory over 30 days on the market in Sunset Park (east of Lincoln, south of Pico).

5/16/08 - 14
1/16/08 - 14
12/15/07 - 15
11/14/07 - 24
10/15/07 - 19
9/13/07 - 16
8/15/07 - 12
7/14/07 - 13

So Sunset Park is more like Ocean Park, below last November's peak. Over half are over 90 days on the market. Here's the list (not including some recent listings).

2620 24th St, 2 bed/2 bath, CLP=$975K (-17%), OLD=12/26/07
1322 Maple St, 2/1, $999K, 3/12/08
1717 Robson Av, 2/1, $1,039K (-13%), 10/12/07
2314 Pier Av, 2/2, $1,099K (-12%), 7/9/07 (sold 3/23/07 $920K)
2224 Navy St, 2/1, $1,149K (-8%), 6/5/07
2424 Cloverfield Bl, 3/2, $1,219K (-2%), 3/21/08
1731 Cedar St, 3/1, $1,256K (-3%), 1/18/07
1225 Grant St, 3/2, $1,349K (-3%), 4/3/08
1215 Ashland Av, 3/1, $1,350K, 4/18/08
1621 Ashland Av, 2/1.5, $1,479K (-12%), 8/13/07
2637 34th St, 4/3.5, $1,695K, 3/25/08
1047 Pacific St, 3/2, $1,750K (-8%), 2/25/08
1611 Sunset Av, 3/3, $1,998K (-7%), 1/30/08
2516 Cloverfield Bl (photo), 4/3, $2,189 (-16%), 7/15/07

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

I honestly believe that the majority of these houses will be sub-$1mm before they transact. A few are really nice, but not $1.3mm nice.

I paid $750,000 just two years ago for a well-rehabbed house (3/2) nicer than most of these, but in the 1800 address range . I think a reasonable broker hoping for a quick sale would probably take it to market at something like $900k-$1mm with aggressive brokers shooting a little higher. I don't know if I'll ever be underwater, but I kind of expect it to go down (at least) to my purchase price perhaps more. Good thing i haven't dropped a cent on the house yet.

Anonymous said...

"I paid $750,000 just two years ago for a well-rehabbed house (3/2) nicer than most of these, but in the 1800 address range ."

i.e. you bought right at the peak of the biggest housing bubble of all time.

"I don't know if I'll ever be underwater"

Hmmm, I wonder too. And if by 1800 you mean an 1800 block that goes north-south, then you're really toast.

Anonymous said...

1800 block of Ashland is what I meant and when I paid 750k the neighbors were paying over $1mm already. My sale was considered well under market. You obviously have no clue about the neighborhood's values and are just spewing crap. 1800 block of a north/south street wouldn't even be Sunset Park, it would be somewhere north of Pico. Fool.

Anonymous said...

Easy now.....wow....bears vs. bulls need to take a time out.

I think Sunset Park is holding its value well. The inventory of home for sale is still low, and well located, turn key homes are moving quickly. Mr. 1800 Ashland - you had a good buy at $750K....

I don't see this market tanking at all.

Anonymous said...

After a whole year of the bears ruling this board (and those like it) because of the pricing collapse in most of LA, it seems to me that the momentum is turning and the bulls are getting bolder.

There is now talk of a "bottom" being around the corner in the media (started by that Wall Street Journal article of two weeks ago), and the SFRs in Santa Monica have held up like the British against French cavalry at Waterloo--no price reductions.

I've always been a bear myself, but could it be that rather than suffering declines, the Westside SFRs will instead merely have a really long flat period for say 10 years as rents and incomes catch up? A depressing thought for anyone on the sidelines waiting to get in.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm, you bought "well under market" right at the peak when things were flying off the market in two days? You either bought it from your mommy, or you're lying.

Anonymous said...

what does the 1800 block have to do with it?

Anonymous said...

anything for $750K- 2 years ago was:

a) small square footage
b) bad floorplan
c)some bad design/defects
d) badly located
e) inside job , ie, bought from an ignorant little old lady/sketchy RE agent/family member

which one???

Anonymous said...

Hey Mr. Genius home buyer,
Why would you write "but in the 1800 address range" when the list includes places with 1600 and 1700 addresses? One whole block makes a difference or something?

Anonymous said...

"There is now talk of a "bottom" being around the corner in the media (started by that Wall Street Journal article of two weeks ago)"

You mean the media that basically missed the entire housing bubble? Kind of like the talk of a "soft landing" 12 months ago? Yeah, take that to the bank.

Anonymous said...

"I think Sunset Park is holding its value well. The inventory of home for sale is still low, and well located, turn key homes are moving quickly."

How can you claim that an area is holding its value when only "well located, turn key homes" are selling, as opposed to two years ago when any POS would sell?

Anonymous said...

People seem to be getting back to sanity....when you didn't have to pay millions to buy a POS (as you say) in a dodgey location....so what I have seen as the 'correction' in Sunset Park is that well located, good condition SFR are moving way faster than homes in 'off' locations. Other than that, prices are not tumbling....as I would have hoped they would. All i'm finding is bargain SFR that are located off Lincoln, next to an apt. bldg, in back of the Taco BEll drive thru...you get the drift.

Anonymous said...

I still don't get the 1800 block comment....why is that a factor?

Anonymous said...

"Other than that, prices are not tumbling....as I would have hoped they would. All i'm finding is bargain SFR that are located off Lincoln, next to an apt. bldg, in back of the Taco BEll drive thru...you get the drift."

Exactly: SFRs in Santa Monica have been spared all of the carnage, so far. The market also seems to have taken a breath this past month: wall street is calling a bottom, inventories are finally stabilizing, a bailout is on the way, etc.

The question for Santa Monica SFRs now is: does this breather signify that SM SFRs have been spared the worst of it, and will now just stay flat for 10 years as wages and rents catch up? Or was this all just the first chapter in the story, and chapter 2 will be about the high end collapsing?

Arti

Anonymous said...

i am a bear. all the fundamentals point to prices going down

the people living in sunset park can't afford to buy there

the average person in sunset park is living in a house that costs eleven times their job income

i am a bear

however, what i notice is that plenty of people with low paying jobs today seem to be able to buy today since parents buy for them

so i am a bear but must admit there are buyers at today's crazy pries

waiting for prices to fall may mean a long wait

dwr said...

Hello lap2 (if you're out there),
Can you please re-post the numbers of sales in SM this year compared to last year? There seem to be many people on this blog who don't understand how these down cycles work- first the sales volume dries up (where SM is currently wrt SFRs) and then prices start to drop. All these comments about "Santa Monica being spared all of the carnage" are ridiculous. All one has to look to is the sales volume.

To the "it's different here crowd",
I can't recall the exact numbers that lap2 posted a month or so ago but I believe for Q1 of '08 sales volume was off something like 50% in terms of both the number of sales and total sales revenue in Santa Monica when compared to Q1 of 2007. People who have been following the bubble for some time will recognize that's what happened around 2006 or 2007 in every other area that is now crashing price-wise.

Anonymous said...

I hope you're right, dwr . . . It's been a long wait, and it's alarming to see the nightmare prices ending in most of LA but SM acting as if it's still 2005.

dwr said...

I saved the numbers from lap2 on my other computer, I'll post them on Monday and I'll wait to see the self-proclaimed "bears" who think SM is different attempt to explain away those numbers.

Anonymous said...

dwr...

Is there evidence that SM SFR prices are falling? Year over year? I haven't seen that chart....

I did see where SM SFR volume is down, but I believe its based on a reduced number of homes being sold...

Anonymous said...

The guy on 1800 block of Ashland here - my purchase was definitely an inside job, but not from my family. If it hit the open market it would have sold for over $1mm. And, please don't call me a bull. I develop residential neighborhoods and think we have a half decade of housing depression coming down the pike. It was my work in acquisitions that allowed me to seek out a better deal on a house. As far as the 1800 block confusion goes, the first reply to my post didn't seem to understand where my house is. My mention of that block was indicate that I think my location is a little inferior to homes farther west. As far as the comments about my home being bought at the peak, I think I was about a year before the peak in Sunset Park. It was still increasing as recent as a year ago.

Anonymous said...

Anon 5:13 - "I did see where SM SFR volume is down, but I believe its based on a reduced number of homes being sold..."

Very insightful. I think your are right.

Anonymous said...

you are.

Even insightfuller.

Andrea Gressinger said...

Bears = smart/educated
Bulls = dumb/"real estate always goes up"

Anonymous said...

"The guy on 1800 block of Ashland here - my purchase was definitely an inside job, but not from my family. If it hit the open market it would have sold for over $1mm."

Do you lose sleep at night thinking about the little old lady who you swindled?

Anonymous said...

Nope. Funny, it was a little old man.

Anonymous said...

"Nope. Funny, it was a little old man."

What's really funny is that there isn't a single public record of something selling on that block in 2006 for anywhere near what you claim.

Anonymous said...

wasn't '06. I guess you took "few" to mean "exactly two". Expand your parameters just a bit (maybe a few months) and get a life. You are really lacking something worthwhile to do if you are fact checking a reasonable home sale on a blog thread. Oh wait, my off market deal doesn't show on mls or title co websites, so maybe you can try the assessor. Have fun.