Tuesday, May 27, 2008

March Case-Shiller

More of the same as today's March 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continue their plummet, now back to June 2004.

(February chart) (November chart with Santa Monica index)

Los Angeles (black line, includes Orange County) is now down 24.4% from its peak in September 2006 - 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 17.8% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $417,721, $417,721 - $627,381, and Over $627,381; updated down for March). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 30.8%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down 18.5% from June 2006.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well this CLEARLY shows that we're at a bottom.

Signed:

A Realtor

Anonymous said...

It still has a long way to fall, and as the Credit Suisse chart (see link below) shows, Options ARMs and Alt A resets are likely going to keep downwards pressure well into next year. http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html

Anonymous said...

The last bit of the URL above is

set-chart.html Just add it to the above address.

I don't know why this didn't wrap around, or show as a link?

Anonymous said...

These declines are not enough, not nearly enough, for people to start buying again.

In the nicer parts of Santa Monica (i.e. mostly free of the homeless), like 90403 and 90402, it's still MUCH cheaper monthly to rent a place than buy the same place after all costs, taxes and deductions are calculated.

West LA has been very slow in catching up to the reality of the Bubble, and so there is going to be more pain there in the coming years because they're behind the market. While other areas might bottom out in 2009 and start normalizing, I think West LA is going to feel pain for many years more, with the Alt As and Prime ARMs only starting their resets late this year and well into 2011.

West LA is going to be in pain for years before the sellers come out of denial and understand that the valuations of 2002-2006 were just a dream. Only when we've come back to 2001 prices will sellers return.

Anonymous said...

At some point doesn't a middle tier price fall into the lower tier and muddle all of the numbers?

NeedleBrain said...

The most interesting thing is that the momentum of the price decline is increasing.

Westside Bubble said...

I don't know why this didn't wrap around, or show as a link?

Here's how to embed a link in these comments:

Here is a {a href="http://westside-bubble.blogspot.com">link{/a>.

becomes (after you change each "{" to a "<"):

Here is a link.

At some point doesn't a middle tier price fall into the lower tier and muddle all of the numbers?

They seem to change the thresholds every month (they also vary by city).

Anonymous said...

West LA is going to be in pain for years before the sellers come out of denial and understand that the valuations of 2002-2006 were just a dream. Only when we've come back to 2001 prices will sellers return.

I love posts like this. It makes me want to come out and predict that "Only when we've come back to July 15th, 1977 prices will buyers return..."

...Or some such nonsense. The market will turn when the market turns. Currently it's flatlining, or in very gradual decline. It could start the plummet tomorrow, or continue to float along due to macro-economic factors that largely seem unrelated.

Folks who are waiting at the moment aren't getting hurt because the price run-ups have stopped. People who are "calling" a bottom aren't getting hurt because many homeowners are desperate to for good news, and good news isn't costing anyone anything. Even folks who are buying strategically, at the moment, aren't really getting hurt because there is very little by way of steep decline happening on the westside, and they generally intend to wait out whatever dip the market suffers.

Speculators and realtors are getting killed... but you have to hope that they knew that a day would come when they would.

Anonymous said...

I agree with anon at 2:08, this is not nearly enough. Fantasy pricing is still rampant in West LA and Santa Monica, most sellers there think they are immune and are in complete denial. That's why nothing's selling, and nothing will, until we get back to 2001 valuations since prices divorced from fundamentals after that year.

For any given home in the US, take 2001 prices, add inflation to today, and that's what the price will eventually settle at when all the rubbish is burned out of the system.

Thank you Greenspan.

Anonymous said...

I tried to use the case schiller data to construct a regression line, but could not get it to work. Just got back .33. Could you include it as I think it would be a useful reference. Oh, and great work. :)

j

allsouledout said...

my 2 cents for the day to those who insist on posting what-might-otherwise-be useful links that are too long and you have to "cut and paste":

http://tinyurl.com

Learn it. Know it. Live it.

Westside Bubble said...

my 2 cents for the day to those who insist on posting what-might-otherwise-be useful links that are too long and you have to "cut and paste"

Thanks, but even better, learn how to embed an html link, per my comment above.

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