Two weeks ago I projected a 33% drop in Westside prices, reverting to 2003 levels, in 2010. What does that look like? Here are some examples of low-end 2003 sales in two Santa Monica neighborhoods we follow pretty closely.
North of Montana, (photo above, click to enlarge) is a 4 bed / 3 bath, 1,867 SF house on a regular 7,500 SF lot at 229 12th Street, that sold 4/10/03 for $1,375K.
Two more on 7,500 SF lots are the 5/3, 1,672 SF house at 501 10th, sold 1/17/03 for $1,400K, and the 2/2, 1,521 SF house at 602 10th, sold 9/5/03 for $1,397K.
These are very consistent, and among the 2003 data points of my North of Montana index of low-end sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid. But although low-end, none of these has been torn down. Would true lot-value have been lower?
Low-end asking prices are down to $1,900K; $500K to go? Or more, if they overshoot to the $1,100K level of 2002.
I've similarly used Hill and Ashland as a Sunset Park index, although it has a less-well-defined low end.
The 3 bed / 1 bath, 1,212 SF house on a 7,000 SF lot at 1809 Hill Street (above), sold on 2/5/03 for $585K, appears the lowest sale price on Hill or Ashland in 2003.
A higher price point is the 3 bed / 2 bath, 1869 SF house on a 7,050 SF lot at 1648 Hill (below), that sold 1/16/03 for $715K.
With low-end but not substandard Sunset Park now around $8-900K, we've got another $2-300K to go to 2003 prices.
Monday, February 9, 2009
2003 prices in Santa Monica
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88 comments:
If livable NOMA houses like the addresses mentioned fall to $1.4M I am moving tomorrow. In 2003, I paid $800k for a nice N. of Wilshire Spanish SFR, which I will gladly sell for the same price (w/ $100k improvements) to move into what I wanted in the first place. Like a lot of other people in the area, I have done well over the past 6 years, and have the savings to upgrade to $1.4M with a conforming loan. Someone will love my classic Spanish, and can get a conforming themselves with $200k down (a lot of this blog's readers). Pricing at 2003 or lower levels is the ultimate sales stimulus package - count me in!
Hey, i'll give you $800k for your home right now and you can sit on the money while you wait for just the right $1.4MM 90402 home to buy. You are going to want to be liquid and ready for that purchase. Deal?
Thanks for the offer Wooster, I'll sit tight! So the story is my household income is up $200k since 2003, but with 90402 going crazy, I was priced out. Congratulations on the career advance, stay in your 3/2 house. The main reason I want to move is to do a nice high-end remodel w/o the danger of being the nicest house on the block - my 90403 remodel is pushing the boundaries of smart investment. My pro landscaping job sticks out from the neighbors, but would look perfect a few blocks North.
Today LA is at the very bottom of US major cities with job opportunities; Recent census data suggests that more people are leaving than are coming; we now know that many home loans made over the last few years were based on inaccurate assumptions and false data. How exactly do we overshoot? Is there some magic number that we can't go below simply because it lines up with a recent historical trend?
What if this isn't a blip and our economy is fundamentally and permanantly worsesened?
Here's a question for Anon 12:35: Has that magic number--the one that you say will cause you to sell your home at no profit to change neighborhoods gone up or down over the last year? For me it has gone down. Where will it be next year?
Can we all agree to stop using the words price point? Sounds like synergy.
The magic number to sell my house and move has not changed - my income is the driver. If I was making today's money in 2003, I would have purchased in 90402 back then. Both my wife and I were in career transition in 2002 (both not working) and were careful not to go in over our heads. We are in different industries, but both are doing well in the down economy. I am very excited about the prospect of lower prices in 90402, and not terribly concerned about the net gain from my 2003 purchase. I'll take an imputed breakeven on my $800k 90403 purchase in lieu of being a 90402 peak buyer with a massive six figure loss of principle. Also, don't count the local economy as DOA, the lower prices will actually attract formerly hard to get talent (I hired 3 guys who think SM is paradise next to Silicon Valley).
10th and 12th streets are a far cry from GRS.
Hey - can i get in on this deal $800k right here and now - all cash - for your place in 90403
yeah, me too, I have 800K lying around here somewhere...
anon 12:35-
Do you think they might drop even to $1.6MM over the next few years? If so, why don't you sell now while you might be able to get a still lofty price for your place, rent for a few years, and use the preserved value from your sale to buy even a better house? Or you could hedge against the possibility that prices don't make it all the way down by salvaging some of your current value. It seems to me that you don't think the prices have that much more to fall because you are apparently unsatisfied with your current house, but not confident in the end game enough to sell now and buy in later at lower value (PRICE POINT). If I were looking for something better and had a decent inclination that I could save a few hundred thousand dollars by renting for a few years then you would see another for sale sign in your neighborhood.
GRS is generally over-rated except for the larger lots and monster houses. 10th and 12th will be easy on the wallet to get into, and more walkable to shops and Palisades Park sunsets. The cheap entry means there is plenty left over to add an addition, remodel, landscape, build a guest house, etc. I can't see paying a $xxxk premium unless the idea is to go big.
12:35 here,
No way would I sell until I move; I served my time in rentals and fully subscribe to the benefits of ownership. Working a short or long hedge is not what home ownership is all about for me - it is where my family lives. If I was out to grind pennies, the whole outfit would still be in a 2 bedroom rent control I had 10 years ago. No malice towards folks who work the angles, but for me life is short and my family's stability and well being outweigh's bragging rights about out-foxing the market.
Amen 3:51!!!!
Way to sock it to the crybaby penny pincers kill joys on this damn blog.
Never have seen too much in the praise of homeownership today....I suspect there is a lot of people on this blog 'stuck' in low rent or rent control places and can't justify buying when they pay little so month....but if you never get on the bus, its harder to get on ever!
"...but if you never get on the bus, its harder to get on ever!"
Or in other words: "Buy now, or be priced out forever."
The battle cry of the bubble.
What nonsense.
"but if you never get on the bus, its harder to get on ever!"
LOL that is so 2005.
Right now prices are dropping fast every month, with most objective projections predicting prices in line with historical norms around year 2000 to 2002 prices. So anyone holding the bag on a house purchased during the Bubble years stands to get wiped out, losing their downpayment and then owing more to the bank than the place is worth. Essentially, they are about to be nailed to the Bubble house for decades, unable to sell because no one will buy it for what they paid for it in the Bubble years.
Sell now or be priced in to your house forever!
Arti
"Right now prices are dropping fast every month, with most objective projections predicting prices in line with historical norms around year 2000 to 2002 prices."
12:35 Anon here. So if your projections are right, then that means my $800k 2003 purchase goes down to $600k, which leaves me with $100k equity and a $500k mortgage - sounds like a wipe-out. Except that means the house next door also goes for $600k, which I will pay cash for, and instantly solve the larger lot / guest house issue. FYI, a lot of my better-off neighbors are thinking the same way - if prices drop sharply they will start buying adjacent parcels. Forget the 'granny or adult child unit' in the backyard strategy, just buy an entire house!
"Also, don't count the local economy as DOA, the lower prices will actually attract formerly hard to get talent (I hired 3 guys who think SM is paradise next to Silicon Valley)."
I'll take aggregated data over a single experience everyday of the week. And unfortunately all signs point to a very dead local and national economy.
"I'll take aggregated data over a single experience everyday of the week. And unfortunately all signs point to a very dead local and national economy."
Well then, is their aggregate out-of-work 90402 homeowners filling up Montana coffee shops during work days, or are there individuals leaving their houses everyday to go to work somewhere?
All signs point to people are still going to work and making a living.
"12:35 Anon here. . . ."
And I congratulate you for your clarity in recognizing the situation rather than denying the Bubble will correct like many other homeowners who bought in the Bubble years.
And, if/when you do buy that adjacent parcel or that home in NOMO, I will congratulate you again, because you would not have done so by stupidly ignoring the Bubble and taking outsize risks as the many self-congratulating dimwits bragged in the "good" years. You would have done so because you amassed a good deal of cash and have greatly increased your earning potential.
Now that's deserving of an upgrade. Big difference between this and the fools who just took dumb risks and now want to cling to Bubble prices to save their lives.
Arti
Right
there are thousands of people n of montana who make an average of one million a year
many want a big guest house - guest house to use as a home office / pool gazebo / house for guests to stay in
buying the property next door is a good solution to this
drive around the 90402 and you will see a number of people that have done this already (the way to see it is to look for houses in which the back yard fence between two houses has been totally removed)
this is a much bigger phenom in the 90402 than the 90403
in fact can anyone who knows the facts cite any examples of 90403 families that own two houses next to each other ?
makes much more sense to do this in the 90403 since there is a 600 thousand dollar price gap in the 90403 land vs 90402 land
so the cost of two houses in the 90403 is 1.2 million cheaper than two houses in 90402
I absolutely love it. First it was hedge fund guys. Then the Saudi oil princes. Then the British expats. Then the people with fabulously rich parents. And now the people of the 90402 themselves, who will rescue the local real estate market from imploding.
Wonderful logic. You truly live in a bubble- apparently not affected by a worldwide economic downturn that very well may turn out to be the next depression.
"there are thousands of people n of montana who make an average of one million a year"
Prove it.
Yes, let's all go driving around the neighborhood peeking into people's yards to examine their fence or lack thereof. It will prove such a huge point and be exciting at the same time. Remember when you do something like this you should always start after midnight and try to wear this activities traditional color of black.
It was 12:35 anon that talked about buying the lot next door, not me. I reproduce his post below.
The gap between 90403 and 90402 opens up a very interesting opportunity - i mean to buy two decent 3 bedroom houses next to each other in the 90402 you are talking 5.0 million. So 5.0 million for the house / guest house next to each other.
But in the 90403 you can buy the same two decent 3 bedroom houses next to each other for 3.0 million
it seems like for someone that really wants that lifestyle the 90403 is unbeatable
Remember that with two 7500 sq foot lots next to each other you take down the fence between the two lots and have a giant giant back yard
Drive around the 90402 and you see a number of property owners that have done this - drive around the 90403 and you see very few
12:35 Anon here. So if your projections are right, then that means my $800k 2003 purchase goes down to $600k, which leaves me with $100k equity and a $500k mortgage - sounds like a wipe-out. Except that means the house next door also goes for $600k, which I will pay cash for, and instantly solve the larger lot / guest house issue.
I did a walk around north of montana to find the properties on double lots
First of all, understand that the city of SM for some reason doesn't want you to build one single house that takes up two lots - they want two houses on the two lots.
So that kills the idea of building a single mansion - you need to have more of two normal houses -
now before this rule, a few people built mega sized mansions on double lots but now that is not allowed
Check out 415 14th - they bought the lot next door tore down the nice two story house and built a medium sized guest house. In their case the goal was a much bigger back yard
The people at 831 Georgina are very nice and happy to show you their back yard - they bought the house next door (825) and tore it down, again simply in order to have a bigger back yard
for me, i wouldn't pay the money simply to have a bigger back yard i would want a pool and gazebo but each to his own.
Two houses next to each other is MUCH MUCH more affordable near the franklin school than N of montana - in fact if you play it right you can buy two houses near the franklin school next to each other for the same price as one decent house in GRS just a few blocks to the north. Great arbitrage there
IN THE PAST
Santa Monica was eager to have someone buy two lots and combine them and build a mega house on the two lots.
Think about it - if the two lots each had a house built on them and each house put two kids in public school, that was FOUR kids going to the public school
if the city instead has the lots combined in to one then chances are in that one house is two kids. so same piece of land but only TWO kids going to the public school
After SM got expensive, it made even more sense. The people combining two lots to build one mega home typically put their kids in private school.
So if santa monica wants to save money and minimize the cost of public schooling, bigger lots (combined lots) are the way to go.
For an example of this just look up 304 21st street - this is a combined lot (double sized lot) with one house - if these were single lots then it is likely the kids would go to public school but since it is a double lot it contains private school people -
(the combined lot with a house on it sold for exactly 8.6 million in 2006)
One more point - this double lot with house for 8.6 million in GRS would sell today in the 90403 for only $3.7 million - HUGE HUGE discount for being in the 90403
Again look it up. Double lots make *much* more sense in the 90403
Well, I guess you better hope that your next door neighbors actually want to sell the house, or if they do want to sell the house that you haven't been an annoying neighbor so they will actually take your bid. Basically, a lot has to happen to get two adjacent lots anywhere. Santa Monica isn't goint to let you merge those lots or ever build across that property line. They do, however, seem to allow folks to build horrible oversized houses for the relative lot size, so you could just plop down a huge garage-less and workshop-less house on your lot and use the other lot for yard and cars. Still though, you need to have your neighbor sell you the house. Good luck.
Don't you people have anything better to do? Like save up a real down payment for a house one day?
"So if your projections are right, then that means my $800k 2003 purchase goes down to $600k, which leaves me with $100k equity and a $500k mortgage - sounds like a wipe-out."
You bought well after a bubble had formed- deal with it. You might have made a ton of money over the past 6 years and you might be able to pay cash for your next home, but your current house was overpriced when you bought it, and guess what, our dear leader just told us the wheels are falling off, which is very bad for real estate prices.
You are correct. It is easier to get the neighbors to sell in the 90403.
Many in the 90403 want to sell so as to move to a neighborhood w more prestige like Huntington Palisades, Brentwood Park, or 90402.
So not so hard to get the neighbors to sell -
but in the 90402 it is really hard to get neighbors to sell
so double lot is easier to obtain in the 90403.
If you believe the projections, sell now for 1.2 million and take your cash off the table
if you don't believe it then don't sell.
if you choose not to sell today for 1.2 and instead wait and sell for 600k later on then you have no one to blame but yourself.
the 1.2 is there for you if you grab it
No, it's kind of slow in this economy and I'm done reading all about the bailout and A-Rod.
Hi, I live in NoMo and read these very interesting ideas about expanding. The wife has long complained that we needed more space for a back yard and also a garage.
We would like to buy the lots on either side of our house, one so we can cover it with grass as a yard, and the other so we can pave the lot with concrete as a parking lot just in case.
Our neighbors are refusing to sell, they say 90402 lot values are going to double again soon and they want to hold. Does anyone have any suggestions? I'm thinking of getting in my Mercedes and making no-look drive-by bids on NoMo lots to see if anyone bites.
Sounds like at the very least your no-look drive-by bids will get you a garage a short walk from your house.
9:52 was joking
Look the truth is that if you live South of Montana and you have a neighbor on the left and a neighbor on the right, and both of them are in original small houses you can get one of them to sell to you and you can double the size of your plot
if you live N of montana and your neighbors are both in their dream houses you are not going to get them to sell
Deal with the truth.
This is one BIG advantage of living South of Montana
FYI...the school district in Santa Monica wants kids in public school....they lose money when kids go private.
I think that means more houses, not less.
I heard through the grapevine that a LARGE number of homeowners in the 90402 (the ones who make over $1 million per year) have each contributed $1 million into a fund that will buy up every house offered for sale under $1.8MM to create a floor for prices. Apparently there is already $400 million in this fund. Has anyone else heard about this?
the grapevine is wrong.
Also - if there are hundreds of extra kids in the public schools the city has to raise local property taxes to pay for the kids. so fewer kids in the public schools mean lower taxes
I heard the 90402 was nearing final approval on secession. They plan to call the newly incorporated area Forest Ranch and will apparently allow residents to move the front yard setbacks on new construction 2.5 forward from it's current position.
"if you choose not to sell today for 1.2 and instead wait and sell for 600k later on then you have no one to blame but yourself.
the 1.2 is there for you if you grab it."
You can also go to a movie theater, yell 'fire' and as people rush the exits grab a better seat. The one thing working against complete crash bears is 90402/03 owners are by and large steady working folks with a long-term agenda. No one likes being down, whether real or opportunity cost dollars, but there is not a large red panic button on Montana avenue with a user line around the block. Folks will carry on, and in 10 years when the kids graduate from school, and 20 years until retirement time is a long enough horizon to figure it all out.
I agree when it comes to the 90402 few owners will want to sell -
but in the 90403 the successful people are itching to get in to Brentwood Park NOMA or other hoods
Just look at the first commentor here - this person paid 800k to get in to the 90403 and is hungry and desperate to move to the 90402 as soon as the 90402 comes down
key thing is - 90402 people are satisfied and not going to move anywhere but 90403 people are another story
Aside from 733 20th (which appears to be an attempted flip gone bad), can anyone name another buyer who happened to live next door AND who made said purchase in the last, oh let's say 5 years? I won't hold my breath waiting for a reply.
"The one thing working against complete crash bears is 90402/03 owners are by and large steady working folks with a long-term agenda."
What are the DTI ratios for those who bought between the years of 2004-06?
Why did nothing sell in 90402 in January?
Why did only a couple houses go into escrow in January?
2:32
what is the point you are trying to make -
are you saying that people try to buy their neighbor's property in the 90403 but do not bother to try in the 90402?
Or that they also try in the 90402 but the neighbors say no
Clarify
This thread has just become foolish, but at least it got a lot of the bulls to come out again.
the initial poster
Anonymous said...
If livable NOMA houses like the addresses mentioned fall to $1.4M I am moving tomorrow
I think this poster is right - 2003 pricing would provoke a lot of sales
"2:32
what is the point you are trying to make -"
People are going on and on about buying adjacent parcels, I was asking for a single example of someone doing that in the past 5 years. If you can't understand my point, then never mind.
"I think this poster is right - 2003 pricing would provoke a lot of sales"
And when prices hit 2002 levels, that will provoke even more sales.
click over to the la times la land blog
they just stated in the feature article that 90402 prices were up in 1998 vs 1997
"I heard through the grapevine that a LARGE number of homeowners in the 90402 (the ones who make over $1 million per year) have each contributed $1 million into a fund that will buy up every house offered for sale under $1.8MM to create a floor for prices. Apparently there is already $400 million in this fund. Has anyone else heard about this?"
Yeah this rumor has been going around for some time. They have basically created a fund that will make a tender offer to all 90402 lots at $1.9 million a lot. This is really not a big deal to them, since most make $1 million a year (that's how they afford the $3 million house) and many are Russian Oligarchs and Chinese Industrialists from the Tianjin province.
It is rumored that Indian outsourcing pioneers from Bangalore are preparing a competing fund to raise the stakes and acquire the 90402 lots right from under the others. Stay tuned, the global obsession for north of Montana dirt is only getting started.
"Yeah this rumor has been going around for some time. They have basically created a fund that will make a tender offer to all 90402 lots at $1.9 million a lot. This is really not a big deal to them, since most make $1 million a year (that's how they afford the $3 million house) and many are Russian Oligarchs and Chinese Industrialists from the Tianjin province."
That is interesting, because I actually heard that the group consists primarily of rich Middle Easterners, so apparently we have at least three different huge funds waiting to scoop up every lot in the 90402. Sorry bubble sitters, you're officially out of luck.
no foreigners are buying in the 90402 it is officially one of the lease diverse zips in la
look it up
it is the existing 90402 residents buying
From what I hear, in the investigation of Bernie Madoff and the missing $50 billion, there is one account that until last year had $14 billion in it, now it has nothing, and the name on the account is the "90402 acquisition account". Sources say his two sons have all the money and are walking door to door through the 90402 making walk-by offers on every house. You heard it here first, walk-by offers!
I am the White Tiger, the rarest of animals.
To posters... this was a good string to read and contribute to before it fell apart due to tired and snarky comments - complete collapse, drive-by offers, etc. - all we need some posts on crime and the homeless to make it complete.
Please remember WB takes the time to cue up a topic, and posters take the time and initiative to provide supporting facts and share their personal strategies. Cheap shots and recycled comments need to go elsewhere - maybe a TMZ or MySpace page is the right place to demonstrate your cleverness. Let's keep this blog on topic and productive. Thanks!
i agree
trolls go troll somewhere else!!!!!
"this was a good string to read and contribute to before it fell apart due to tired and snarky comments - complete collapse, drive-by offers, etc."
So one anonymous poster says he's a buyer at 1.4 million, and then the usual idiot bulls chime in with how that will save the 90402, and that in your mind makes for a good string? You need to get out more.
The poster was obviously real - trying to express an honest balanced view
the poster said that he will lose money on his 90403 home
he was not bragging or pumping just stating a fact
why does it bother you so much that he will buy when the houses hit 1.4 in the 90402? that is still 35% down from the peak
Maybe it is time for a blog reader poll - here area few category ideas.
Are you a..
1. Buyer, can afford now.
2. Buyer, can afford with a price drop.
3. Seller, looking to cash out.
4. Seller, nervous about a big loss.
5. Homeowner, watching it all go by.
6. None of the above, just adding 2 cents for entertainment.
6. None of the above, hope all capitalists who can afford to buy in SM crash and burn and turn into panhandlers.
A huge 60 comments here, and some about the _____ buyers ready to buy low-end 90042 were pretty hilarious!
Also, I don't think there's any reason you couldn't build one big house across two lots, but the required side yard widths would double.
Good poll idea, if I can figure out how to set one up. In the mean time, there are always more comments.
Lot of 6b posters round here.
A few thoughts . . .
First, kudos to Westside for letting this thread just grow organically. These posts are pretty on-topic, just because you want to use scarcasm about Chinese Industrialists from the Tianjin province being obsessed with the 90402 doesn't mean you're not also making a point about real estate in west LA.
"all we need some posts on crime and the homeless to make it complete"
That's not off-topic either. It's a huge part of everyday living to a lot of people that live in Santa Monica, Venice and Westwood. A lot of us have been accosted or verbally absused by deranged vagrants while walking around our very pricey neighborhood, or we have kids and don't feel safe with the deranged vagrants around. That's irrelevant to buying on the westside?
Finally, the poll is a great idea. Until Westside makes one, I'll post that I'm in category 1. In fact I have been able to afford since 2004, I just refused to do so because it was very obvious to me that we were in a massive Bubble and that prices would collapse. Between 1999 and 2004 I saw prices more than double on an asset that, over decades, moves about 2-3% a year on average. What the heck did you think was gonna happen?
Glad it's finally unwinding. Zero sympathy for buyers who got too much mortgage or have their downpayments wiped out--they knowingly participated in the Bubble and in fact contributed to it. Now live in that house for 20 years to break even, I'm going to pull the trigger in 12 months when prices are back in line to 2000 prices (plus 2% a year on top for inflation).
Arti
I'll bite....I am a homeowner with 3 homes in 90405. I am thinking about selling one that is used as a rental right now. Bought that in '93, so i'll make a ton regardless. The second home does well as a rental and we live in the third, but I have taken a lot of money out of it and am watching the interest rates carefully so i can refi.
I'm on this blog because I am fascinated by the preoccupation about falling home prices. I NEVER gave the homebuying decision as much press/thought. I did so when I found a good property that was flexible enough to live in or rent.
"All signs point to people are still going to work and making a living."
That's the stupidest thing I've heard in a long time. Seriously? You looked out your window and saw people going to work so now you think there is no large scale recession going on. Please, stop grasping at straws on this. I'm not saying your neighbor is going into foreclosure, but when this thing is over--no matter what happens in SM I will be able to find a nice house in a nice neighborhood and I won't have to pay 1.4 million to do so, and my neighbor will mow his grass. That's it, now go on and explain to me how you looked up this morning, saw the sun, and decided it would never rain again.
So if santa monica wants to save money and minimize the cost of public schooling, bigger lots (combined lots) are the way to go.
If I was a SM planner I would just tax the shit out of those mega mansions. Since apparently you all believe demand for property is inelastic!
'So if santa monica wants to save money and minimize the cost of public schooling, bigger lots (combined lots) are the way to go.'
No, 2 lots are more valuable to a city as its 2 parcels to collect property taxes, school bond fees, park and rec etc....Have you looked at the SM tax bill lately?
I have to think that the value of two new houses on 2 sep. lots generate more $$$ in fees and taxes for the city.
FYI - I have 2 houses together, and there is NO WAY Santa Monica allows building across lot lines.
Thanks Anon for sharing that.
owning two houses right next to each other is not common, but it is a lot more common than the cynics on this board think it is
it is a good way to go in order to have guest space (guests have their own kitchen)_
In the 90403 or in the 90402?
"owning two houses right next to each other is not common, but it is a lot more common than the cynics on this board think it is"
can you cite to a single example where at least one of the two properties was purchased during the bubble?
"I NEVER gave the homebuying decision as much press/thought."
In case you just woke up, we just experienced the biggest housing bubble ever. Anyone who chose to ignore it has screwed their finances for the next 10-20 years.
"In case you just woke up, we just experienced the biggest housing bubble ever. Anyone who chose to ignore it has screwed their finances for the next 10-20 years."
Not really. It's this sort of hyperbolic, meaningless overstatement that really annoys me whenever I read this blog.
I didn't buy property during the bubble, but if I had it wouldn't bother me much if a) I liked where I lived, b) I could afford where I lived, c) I was comfortable locked into the value range at which I made my initial investment.
The people who have generally gotten hurt are those who looked at the property investments as assets to be traded and leveraged against. Ironically, this is precisely the same attitude shared by the majority of posters here who are trying to time the market.
"I didn't buy property during the bubble, but if I had it wouldn't bother me much if a) I liked where I lived, b) I could afford where I lived, c) I was comfortable locked into the value range at which I made my initial investment."
It's always a good time to buy! I knew you sounded familiar.
can we ban the realtors from this site? anybody who thinks real estate is going to be a good investment over the next 30-40 yaers is pretty much automatically out of touch with reality, or relies on it for their living!
Gee, some poster said 'home prices will continue to go down over the next 30-40 years?????'
That is pure bullshit and everybody would be renters if they believed that phooey....
Again, why is owning a home and leaving it to your kids a bad idea?
"Again, why is owning a home and leaving it to your kids a bad idea?"
Total realtor BS!
Jeez folks, there's nothing wrong with buying a home. There's just different trends in the riskiness of doing so. I hit the stride in my career in 2004 and wasn't yet priced out, but I felt like I couldn't get what I wanted for what I was willing to pay for it, so I stayed out. I lucked out, but there were a few times when I almost bought a home in the Hollywood Hills or Sherman Oaks. I guess now I'm pretty happy about my prospects.
Why would there be anything wrong with buying a house and holding it until you give it to your children. If you don't buy on the peaks of value then there hasn't been a time in history where a long term hold hasn't provided homebuyers with at least a return of capital and equity. That 30-40 year decline comment is pure nonsense. If that's the case the USA has effectively died and I won't care about any lost money from housing. I'll be polishing up my German and applying for citizenship. It seems that, on this site, even the slightest support of housing as a long term ownership opportunity is welcomed with cries of "realtor". That's nonsense.
"Why would there be anything wrong with buying a house and holding it until you give it to your children."
There's nothing wrong with it, so long as you buy at the right time, which is certainly not now. And anyone who says now is the time to buy on the westside is either trying to sell their home, or a realtor, or a moron.
Anybody who has bought a home in the last 10-15 years has screwed themselves for the next 15-20 at least. The point is, this market hasn't approached a bottom, the bottom is nowhere near in sight. We're 60-70% from the bottom right now, and we're gonna keep falling slowly for a very, very long time. You'd be an idiot to even think about buying until your kids are heading off to college!
Great, then what you are concluding is that homes in 90402 will sell for $800-900k at the bottom, which will happen sometime around 2020. That's pretty bearish. Maybe even a tad too bearish. I think I am negative when I say we have another 30% off current levels to go. I must be a realtor.
I don't even want to live north of Montana, ever. No matter the price. I'm way too annoyed by the douchebags that make their home there. So much materialism, so many attitudes. It's a shame that great wealth turns so many into a-holes.
"Maybe even a tad too bearish."
The previous poster was obviously being sarcastic.
I think it's time for another poll: which flavor of ramen is preferred by 3 out of 4 realtors?
I love it when people have to point out sarcasm in a post that they think someone didn't get when it's apparent that that person (who didn't get it) was being sarcastic as well. It seems to happen so often.
'Anybody who has bought a home in the last 10-15 years has screwed themselves for the next 15-20 at least"
Really? You mean if a house came on the market today at 1993 prices, I should still think thats a bad deal????
Well I am neither a bull nor a bear. I can't comment on how far the 90402 price rollbacks will go
but I do know that the WAGE rollbacks are going pretty far
tiny.cc/JDjobs
There is a good reason why prices go up the further north you go in Santa Monica.
Neighborhoods are different
People talk about rollbacks
even back in 2001 La Mesa houses were selling for 11 million (look up 1837 la mesa)
Now obviously things shot up like a rocket since 2001, and have come back down after peaking but it is hard to imagine that la mesa has rolled back to 2001 and therefore it is safe to assume that if this house on la mesa came up today it would sell for over 11 million
So tout the roll backs all you want - La Mesa is still over ten million a house today
"So tout the roll backs all you want - La Mesa is still over ten million a house today"
Which house on La Mesa are you listing... as you're clearly an agent!
I'm not a real estate agent
i think real estate agents are the scum of the earth
but it doesn't change the fact that la mesa is over ten million a house today
consider getting a job instead of hating the peopel that live on la mesa
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