Friday, February 20, 2009

Weekly inventory update

2/20/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly; Mar Vista and Pacific Palisades are up more. Seems like a lot more price reductions than sales in SM and PP, while low-end Mar Vista does have new escrows.

2/13/09 - Pacific Palisades was up, while Santa Monica and Mar Vista were flat. Another north-of-Montana house joined the $1.9 million club: 415 17th, 3 bed / 3 bath, originally listed 12/4/08 for $2,245K, abruptly dropped its price to $1,899K at the beginning of the week (see SM Distress Monitor).

2/6/09 - Pacific Palisades inventory jumped for the week, while Santa Monica and Mar Vista was pretty flat. More price reductions and churn of expired/ withdrawn listings back on the market as others leave. And a couple into escrow.

Not unlike the LA Times, the Santa Monica Daily Press on Friday had its front page "Housing price slide comes to Westside" article (pdf). Gary Limjap, the main real estate agent interviewed - who was pretty realistic, especially saying "Sunset Park being among the hardest hit, seeing its home values drop 25-30 percent in the third quarter 2008 from the same time in 2007" - just happened to have a bottom front page ad. Hmmmm.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/ 6/09 67 5 93 159 64 7 164 132 67 4 155
2/13/09 68 6 93 160 67 10 170 133 68 7 156
2/20/09 69 6 95 165 70 13 180 147 73 12 154
3/27/09

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Obama=Gorbachev? George Soros is saying that the present financial crisis has much more in common with the break up of the USSR than it does with the great depression. He's saying, as far as he can see there's no way out beyond total national collapse and international currency devaluation. Why are we still trying to time the housing market again?

Anonymous said...

The collapse of the world economy is very good news for those of us who want to move to the 90402

prices to buy AND prices to rent will come down

don't forget that even if we believe your gloom and doom stories about buying, there is still nothing stopping us from taking advantage of the lower rents in the 90402 -
those of us that saved money for years and years will benefit

the 90402 is coming within reach due to this global meltdown

Anonymous said...

I'm not a believer in the Soros collapse position but this:

"those of us that saved money for years and years will benefit"

Is just plain wrong.

Soros is talking about the Zimbabwe model with runaway inflation at over one million percent per annum. Your savings will be worth just about enough to buy a pack of dry roasted peanuts.

What Soros is talking about puts those in positions of political influence with access to the mint in positions of power and bankrupts the rest of the nation.

This is scary stuff, you might get your McMansion, but only at the end of a gun.

dwr said...

What was Soros saying in 2006 or 2007? I could be wrong but I don't recall hearing anything bearish from him till about 6 months ago.

Anonymous said...

Uh -

it is simple. Convert your savings in to some form that will not depreciate.
Figure out if that is gold bricks, or something else.

you only lose your savings if they are in something that depreciates

Anonymous said...

"Figure out if that is gold bricks, or something else."

Honey, gold is just shiny metal. If this comes to pass there is no asset class that is safe. Good luck trying to trade your pick-up filled with krugerrands for a GRS McMansion.

dwr said...

From March 2008:

"The signs of a softening in property prices are unmistakable but veteran global investor George Soros does not seem to be worried as the real estate-savvy billionaire businessman has picked up a 2.5% stake in Indiabulls Real Estate (IRE) in a deal worth Rs 276 crore.

The investment has come at the time when many of Soros’ US-based counterparts have been on a selling spree amid concerns over acute financial crisis in the world’s largest economy. Soros’ hedge fund Quantum acquired over six million IRE shares in the open market on Tuesday. The deal was struck at Rs 455.8 on the day when the shares closed 4.2% down at Rs 449.4."

It's down under 200- what a visionary. Maybe he had the touch in the 70s, then again maybe that was mostly Jim Rogers' doing.

Anonymous said...

why own in the 90402 when you can rent?

in the new economy, owners face declining prices

no one knows how different neighborhoods will fare in this great depression. it is possible that things will get much worse in the 90402 and the correct response will be to move in to a guard gated community like Moraga or Beverly Park

sure living in the 90402 is great right now, in 2009 but you just can't predict the future.

play it safe - rent in the 90402 and preserve the flexibility to get the heck out as soon as things get bad

Anonymous said...

I'm so glad I'm not the only one obsessed with the 90402!!!

I swear sometimes I lose sleep thinking about ways I could move to it. I realize we're odd because there's almost nothing special about that place, but it's just like those "cool" cliques in high school, no matter how childish you want to get "in" simply because you're excluded, regardless of how pathetic that group is.

I also realize the lengths we would go to get there. In my more fanciful fantasies I dream of some kind of apocalyptic event happening like a nuclear spill or asteroid hitting the coast that would devastate much of southern California, and somehow let me move into a desolated area north of what used to be montana.

Anonymous said...

Uh no amt of joking changes the fact that RENTING North of Montana is better than buying North of Montana

today the new 4000 square foot houses still cost more than 3 million to buy

buy them and lose at least a million bucks over next few yeas

rent, and you don't lose the million bucks

no brainer

plus - the desperate owners keep lowering the rents North of Montana !

Anonymous said...

"I swear sometimes I lose sleep thinking about ways I could move to it. I realize we're odd because there's almost nothing special about that place, but it's just like those "cool" cliques in high school, no matter how childish you want to get "in" simply because you're excluded, regardless of how pathetic that group is."

You're either a lifelong renter, or someone who bought a 90402 home in 2006. Which is it?

Anonymous said...

yeah I agree

probably someone who bought in the 90402 in 2006 who is now facing fact that the house is worth 1 million less than he paid back in 2006

stop slamming the renters. you may need one of us when you lose your job, move to another city and cant sell your house

of course property taxes on a house you bought for four million are 40 thou a year and that may be only a little less than you can collect in rent

Westside Bubble said...

I swear sometimes I lose sleep thinking about ways I could move to it. I realize we're odd because there's almost nothing special about that place, but it's just like those "cool" cliques in high school, no matter how childish you want to get "in" simply because you're excluded, regardless of how pathetic that group is.

Well-put! Now steady yourself, remember what you wrote, "there's almost nothing special about that place".

Anonymous said...

Ha! I agree with Westside Bubble.

Don't commit suicide or anything due to your inability to get in to the 90402. Just relax and wait - prices will eventually fall to your level.

Anonymous said...

In every family there is ONE parent that is hungry and desperate for the 90402 and one parent that doesn't care and is just trying to keep the other parent happy.

This leads to fighting

Anonymous said...

"stop slamming the renters. you may need one of us when you lose your job, move to another city and cant sell your house"

LOL I'm not slamming renters at all--I'm slamming the individuals of dubious intelligence who are obsessed with the 90402. Get over it, it's just the hot neighborhood du jour, bubble or no you are sure to overpay there.

Only Westside Bubble got the joke it seems.

Anonymous said...

You just don't get it. We don't care about North of Montana - it is our SPOUSES that care about North of Montana. There is tremendous status anxiety in Santa Monica with Nort of Montana at the top

The people on this blog are not the ones who feel social pressure to move to the 90402. But we have to react to what our spouses want