Monday, February 16, 2009

Not selling north of Montana

It's as if there are two Westside real estate markets not talking to each other: sellers holding out unsuccessfully for high prices, and buyers unwilling or unable to pay that much. But at least some sellers are reducing prices, ranging from many small reductions to a big lump after awhile. That is the mechanism that will eventually drop the market price level.

Remember our "Not selling north of Montana" series? Here's the summary of our monthly lists of everything over 30 days on the market for these months in 2007 and 2008:

5/20/08 - 21
4/21/08 - 21
1/16/08 - 7
12/15/07 - 9
11/14/07 - 9
10/15/07 - 11
9/15/07 - 10
8/16/07 - 13
7/16/07 - 8

Where is it now? At 29 it's at record levels, with 22 over 90 days on the market (red below). Note how it now includes all of low-end, middle, and high-end (separated into millions below), and many have had price reductions (4 of 15% or more).

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date

527 7th, 2/1, $1,690K (-6%), 5/12/08
320 9th, 3/2, $1,895K (-10%), 11/12/08
209 25th, 3/2.5, $1,899K (-7%), 10/7/08
415 17th, 3/3, $1,899K (-15%), 12/4/08
733 20th, 3/2, $1,995K (-5%), 10/27/08

620 22nd, 3/2, $2,249K (-6%), 10/23/08
237 Adelaide, 1/1.5, $2,295K (-21%), 7/7/08
308 15th, 3/2, $2,350K (-5%), 1/5/09
1102 San Vicente, 4/2, $2,495K, 10/24/08
247 20th, 3/3, $2,500K (-13%), 10/8/08
634 12th, 3/2.5, $2,625K (-3%), 10/20/08
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08
1628 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K (-21%), 10/25/08

444 10th, 5/3, $3,130K, 11/13/08
365 23rd, 4/4.5, $3,195K (-14%), 11/13/08
636 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,595K (-10%), 3/14/08
734 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,678K (-14%), 3/21/08
311 Marguerita, 5/4.5, $3,695K, 1/5/09
443 14th, 4/5.5, $3,950K (-7%), 12/4/08
1005 San Vicente, 2/4.5, $3,995K (-7%), 9/12/08
327 Alta, 5/3.5, $3,995K, 12/1/08

215 21st Pl, 5/4.5, $4,195K, 12/12/08
703 25th, 5/5.5, $4,688K, 11/6/08
251 24th, 6/6, $4,695K, 10/31/08
133 17th, 5/6.5, $4,800K, 10/30/08
402 20th, 5/5.5, $4,959K (-10%), 10/30/08

1228 San Vicente, 5/5.5, $5,250K, 10/21/08
315 Palisades, 4/3.5, $5,995K, 12/9/08

808 Adelaide Pl (photo), 7/10, $12,450K (-27%), 3/31/08

I'll follow up later with Sunset Park and Pacific Palisades.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

How's our friend on Berkeley?

Anonymous said...

westside....appreciate the effort...particularly about pac pal. cant wait to see the data there as things are flat out not moving and prices have continued to get cut.

dwr said...

"That is the mechanism that will eventually drop the market price level."

Don't ignore short sales/REOs. Until recently there weren't any NODs or other foreclosure activity in 90402, now there are several. You might want to start trending those as well.

Anonymous said...

It's all a matter of price. Two story on 12'th sold in days with backup when they lowered their price to $2.78 million. The overpriced properties sit.

By the way, Pac Pal is the same, Some places go into escrow in days, others sit forever, it's no longer, "location, l, l,..", it's "price, price, price". I wish there was a way to kick some sellers out of MLS that are living in a 2007 world or something.

Anonymous said...

Right - let's have full coverage of all REOs in the SM 90402 (not the canyon since canyon is not SM)

90402 REOs are of great interest since banks generally keep cutting price until it sells

Hope we will see 5 bedrooms under 2.5

Anonymous said...

"It's all a matter of price."

Really?