Monday, February 16, 2009

Not selling in Pacific Palisades

Last May (5/24/08) I did a first "Not selling in Pacific Palisades", which found 27 houses under $2M over 30 days on the market, with 14 over 90 days.

Talk about a stuck market! Would you believe now there are 47 over 30 days, including 37 over 90 days, 5 from 2007 (bolded below), and yet more listings within the last 30 days not yet on the list! This is the detail behind the soaring inventory graph, grouped by 100,000s.

There are already some impressive price reductions (15% and over in red) that will eventually take the market where it needs to go. And what's with all these listings at $1,995K?

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date

16751 W Sunset, 3/2, $899K (-25%), 8/3/08
16723 W Sunset, 4/3, $900K, (-10%), 10/28/08
616 Las Lomas, 2/2, $950K (-17%), 11/19/08

520 Bienveneda, 2/1.5, $1,195K (-8%), 10/10/08

1315 Avenida de Cortez, 5/3, $1,269K ( -20%), 1/31/08
15027 W Sunset, 3/2, $1,275K, 1/15/09
569 Mount Holyoke, 1/1.5, $1,279K, 12/16/08
1104 Via de la Paz (photo), 2/2, $1,289K ( -43%), 11/2/07
614 Swarthmore, 2/2, $1,295K (-24%), 10/20/08
17941 Tramonto, 3/1.75, $1,295K, 10/24/08
17060 Livorno, 2/2, $1,299K (-24%), 11/7/07

715 Iliff, 2/2, $1,388K (-4%), 6/13/08
1363 Avenida de Cortez, 4/3, $1,390K (-12%), 8/20/08
14852 W Sunset, 2/2, $1,395K (-25%), 4/29/08
17056 Livorno, 3/2, $1,395K (-5%), 10/13/08
16910 Marquez, 4/2.5, $1,399K (-20%), 10/15/08
784 Wildomar, 2/1.75, $1,399K (-5%), 1/15/09

16836 Livorno, 2/2, $1,400K (-4%), 9/9/08
1454 Avenida de Cortez, 4/3.5, $1,435K (-10%), 1/9/09
708 Jacon, 3/2.75, $1,475K (-16%), 9/19/08
874 Fiske, 3/3, $1,479K (-10%), 9/11/08

14742 Oracle, 4/3, $1,525K (-10%), 11/26/08
16776 Calle de Marisa, 5/4, $1,550K (-11%), 5/6/08
820 El Oro, 4/3, $1,595K (-20%), 10/10/07
838 Fiske, 5/3.5, $1,595K (-18%), 7/18/08
360 Aderno, 3/2, $1,595K, 10/27/08

16799 Calle de Marisa, 4/3.5, $1,645K (-4%), 8/13/08
553 Swarthmore, 3/2, $1,695K, 9/10/08
544 Paseo Miramar, 3/2.5, $1,695K (-13%), 3/3/08

18120 Wakecrest, 3/2, $1,749K (-4%), 10/2/08
1029 Chautauqua, 3/2, $1,750K (-12%), 10/20/08
1885 Michael, 5/5, $1,795K (-10%), 7/17/08
3814 Castlerock, 3/3.5, $1,799K (-18%), 12/13/07

1151 Embury, 4/3, $1,875K, 12/26/08
222 Notteargenta, 3/3, $1,895K (-5%), 11/2/08
625 Palmera, 3/2.5, $1,895K, 12/18/08
800 Enchanted Way, 3/2, $1,895K (-1%), 10/20/08

654 Resolano, 3/3, $1,980K (-8%), 3/19/08
14931 McKendree, 5/4.25, $1,995K, 10/30/08
16006 Temecula, 4/3, $1,995K (-9%), 10/18/08
16736 Calle Arbolada, 4/3.75, $1,995K, 11/13/08
844 Toyopa, 3/1.75, $1,995K, 11/24/08
16619 Calle Haleigh, 4/4.5, $1,995K, 6/25/08
15455 Albright, 3/2, $1,995K (-9%), 9/4/08
16646 Calle Brittany, 3/3.5, $1,995K (-17%), 11/8/07
3912 Spray, 5/2.75, $1,995K (-11%), 4/29/08
1006 Hartzell, 5/3, $1,999K, 1/12/09


Anonymous said...

the home you picture was originally listed at 2.0 million. a tiny home on a tiny lot that a flipper bought and had foreclosed.

Anonymous said...

Over 2M is even worse. 16814 Calle De Sarah originally listed 11/1/07 for $ 3,300,000 now listed at $2,300,000 and not sold.

Anonymous said...

And yet these stubborn sellers will not lower their listing prices to reasonable levels. For the right market price, all of these homes will sell. What is the hang up?

Anonymous said...

The hang up is the right market price is down 50% or more.

Anonymous said...

How about the real estate agents that list these dogs. Look at 16646 Calle Brittany. Listed and relisted for more than 18 months still at $1,995,000 with no reduction.

tbgpalisades said...

It seems that there just are not that many $450,000/year households in the Palisades that can afford the asking prices. This is contrary to what the realtors say.

Rent on 3/2s seems to run ~$3,500 (if you're lucky) to ~$5,500. Do the math, PV this back, and the intrinsic values are more along the lines of $735,000 - $1,375,000.

Of course, the difference is pocket change for lots of folks, so I guess it really doesn't matter.

And, please, realtors, don't ask what "intrinsic" means. Trust me, it's not covered on your licensing exams.

Anonymous said...

And same as everyone wanted to buy on the way up, no one does on the way down, so intrinsic value is probably a little high.

Anonymous said...

17850 Tramonto is now listed at $2,750,000 after a two-year period on and off the market beginning at $3,400,000 (or was it $3,8). Seller who is also a broker bought it 01/07 for $2,200,000! How long will it take to get back to that price?

Anonymous said...

17850 Tramonto could fetch 1.8 to 1.9 today if the seller got real.

Bottom line, realtors are usually the last to lower the price of their property to a market clearing level

they always think they can game the system

Anonymous said...

If an agent listed his/her agent-owned house in my neighborhood I would never use that agent until their house sold. Imagine the difference in effort they would give toward each property. The broker on Tramonto doesn't seem to have any other properties in the area, so i guess I give him a pass.

Anonymous said...

I agree completely. The realtor is going to show people her house first.

I am pessimistic about pricing in PP but pricing in PP will be helped by the increase in crime in SM - each time there is a bad recession SM crime spikes

Already parents are pushing for their kids to live in PP apartments and not SM apartments as the SM crime gets more publicity.

From today's cnn:
NEW YORK (CNN) -- Juliana Redding was 21, an aspiring actress and model who, like so many others before her, had moved from Arizona to southern California in pursuit of the Hollywood dream. She wound up the victim in a real life murder mystery -- one few people are willing to talk about in any detail.

Juliana Redding, an aspiring model and actress, was found murdered in her Santa Monica apartment.

By the age of 18, Redding had earned her first film credit, appearing in a 2005 independent film called "Kathy T Gives Good Hoover," about college students and the graffiti culture.

In 2006, she moved into a one-bedroom apartment in Santa Monica, California, with her pet Yorkshire terrier.

She was also taking college courses while working part-time in a trendy Venice Beach bar.

Friends grew worried in March when they couldn't reach Redding for a few days. They called her mother in Redding's hometown of Tucson, Arizona. Her mother called the Santa Monica police.

Police found Redding dead inside her apartment. "The manner of death is homicide," said Sgt. Rinaldi Thruston of the Santa Monica Police Department.

Westside Bubble said...

Juliana Redding died in March 2008, neither breaking news nor indicative of any Santa Monica crime wave.

Anonymous said...

That is true - but the perception among buyers shifts when there is a deep recession

look at Barbara Boxer's report

or this

The fact is that violent crimes goes up in a recession. Buyers are not stupid they know this and will react to it

Anonymous said...

It's already below 2.2. Well below, the list price is meaningless.

And westside, how about removing the idiotic "murder" posts that have nothing to do with anything?

Anonymous said...

Still wonder how many homes are in default but lenders have not filed NOD's or began foreclosure proceedings.

Anonymous said...

"And yet these stubborn sellers will not lower their listing prices to reasonable levels. For the right market price, all of these homes will sell. What is the hang up?"

The hang up is that these sellers have no room to cut, most of them bought very recently so their downpayment is already gone and they're underwater. The only way this inventory clears is to wait; soon enough one by one these greedy flippers and reckless buyers will "bust out" and be foreclosed on by the bank. The bank will then re-list at list prices that are a lot less "Bubbly".

Anonymous said...

"And, please, realtors, don't ask what "intrinsic" means. Trust me, it's not covered on your licensing exams."

LOL. Hey these realturds must know a lot, they had to take a multiple-choice exam to get their license! Listen to what they're saying! They're saying now is a great time to buy.

Westside Bubble said...

And westside, how about removing the idiotic "murder" posts that have nothing to do with anything?

Agreed. They now join homeless posts as candidates for deletion, letting Anon 12:24 be the last word on the subject.

Anonymous said...

I respecfully protest the deletion of the homeless invasion posts, as I maintain their relevance to Westside real estate especially where Westwood Village and Santa Monica are concerned, as they are the most victimized by them.

I will not bring the problem up since it is now "banned", but I feel like I should be on record with my objection for what it's worth.

Anonymous said...

"I respecfully protest the deletion of the homeless invasion posts, ..."

I wholeheartedly gratulate Westside Bubble for keeping this blog focussed on the discussion of real estate. I'd welcome any commentators who wish to discuss crime "waves" and homeless "invasions" on their own blogs.

Anonymous said...


is back on the market???? What is going on with that house? And they've priced it higher than the '06 sales price! (I'm assuming the recent '08 sales price was the bank taking it back?)