Tuesday, February 24, 2009

December S&P/Case-Shiller

No surprises in today's December 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers for Los Angeles, now down 37.4% from September 2006 peak, back to November 2003 levels, still both steep and symmetrical.

By month that's 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 28.3% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $324,070, $324,070 - $492,006, and Over $492,006; updated for December; the upper just dropped below $500K). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 48.8%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another 2.0% to 27.6% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to March 2004.


tbgpalisades said...

It seems that most west side "high tier" homes are priced $400M - $600M over their CS comps, if you lay the index against their original purchase price. Also, too many westsiders consider normal maintenance as improvements. It'd be nice if realtors would display a CS index price for informational purposes. Then let the buyer make any adjustments for "upgrades" (I'd use 50% of cost, back of the envelope).

Anonymous said...

Let's look at 605 Baylor 90272. Listed for sale at $925,000.

Sold 7/23/97; $355,000; CS 77.4
Purchased 3/31/06; $995,000; CS 234.8

CS value on 3/31/06 = $1,076,925

The buyer did well on the '06 purchase relative to CS. Now, let's look at the present CS value.

Current CS 173.97; Indexed value from '06 purchase: $737,225; Indexed value from '97 sale: $797,200

This house should be price ~$785,000 to be fairly valued relative to CS.

For the seller's sake, let's hope they can find a nice bagholder, and quickly.

Anonymous said...

Re: 605 Baylor

I'd offer $725,000, and pray that I don't have to sell at $625,000 in a couple of years.