October S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's October 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 34.4% from its peak in September 2006, back to February 2004 levels. Notice how symmetrical it has been (unlike the DataQuick median prices). It's been retracing another month with each new month passed, and seemingly closing on its longer-term trend line.

By month that's 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 25.0% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $351,171, $351,171 - $530,387, and Over $530,387; updated for October). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 45.5%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down a steeper 2.2% to 24.4% from its June 2006 peak.

Saturday LA Times

Here are highlights and comments on Saturday's LA Times' "Home prices expected to fall further in 2009 by Peter Hong. It begins:

Real estate experts who were troubled by a 10% drop in median home prices near the end of last year from the previous year probably were stunned by the 35% drop in values since then. ...

Growing unemployment, more declines in consumer spending and a particularly long and deep recession are expected to batter home prices even further next year, they said.

Got that right. Then here's a projection by Christopher Thornberg worth noting:

At the end of November, Southern California's median home sales price had fallen to $285,000, from $435,000 in November 2007. If median prices were to continue falling at that pace, they would be below $200,000 a year from now.

But even bearish forecasters don't expect so severe a decline. More likely, prices in Southern California will settle in late 2009 at a level roughly 55% below their peak, said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles economist.

That would amount to a price near $230,000, a level at which home prices would be roughly in line with incomes by historical norms.

But then came this way-off-base statement:

UCLA economist Edward E. Leamer said further government action to stop foreclosures was essential for putting the brakes on falling home values.

"When you're sick you need medicine for the disease, not the symptoms," he said.

In housing, the disease is the deterioration of neighborhoods and home values as houses are foreclosed, abandoned and sold at greatly reduced prices, said Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

No, the disease is the credit and housing bubble, and falling prices and foreclosures are the symptoms! To push the analogy further, a fever is the body's way of curing an infection, and falling prices will eventually cure the bubble.

Weekly inventory update

12/26 - Slight decline for Santa Monica, a little more for Palisades, and a slight increase for Mar Vista, not that I'd expect much of a change over Christmas.

We'll have a lot of year-end wrap-up in the next week or so: large trends over 2008, graphs, and detailed lists.

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market. A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08         64   2  92 143  53   1 143 129  72   5 126
12/12/08         62   3  93 154  48   2 136 114  70   6 141
12/19/08         54   3  84 159  52   4 138 126  66   8 149
12/26/08         53   3  82 165  49   5 132 129  67  10 139

Happy Holidays!

Have a great holiday, and celebrate what matters a lot more than stuff you buy!

Adelaide Place "ease and calm"

Down at the end of Adelaide Place (the cul-de-sac extension of Adelaide Drive east of 7th Street), behind the wood gates (above; click to enlarge photos), is the most expensive current listing in Santa Monica at 808 Adelaide Place. If it sells it will be the most expensive sale in Santa Monica; last year's 1605 San Vicente (MLS) for $22,500K expired unsold a year ago.

This 10 bed / 7 bath, 10,629 SF new house overlooks Santa Monica Canyon on a 24,280 SF lot. Originally listed 3/31/08 for $16,975K, it was relisted 10/30/08 for $12,450K.

"Come see the FABULOUS NEW LOOK of an enchanting brand new hacienda on a private lot w/ocean views. Indulge oneself in the freedom of a spontaneous, undemanding life of ease and calm. Anticipate the myriad pleasures and rewards of urban sophistication with every amenity. The glorious main house has 6 bedrooms and a lower level with space for theater and billiard room. The full guest house/party pavilion has a fireplace and opens to the lovely pool area. Reward yourself with this trophy property."

Can you believe that, a "spontaneous, undemanding life of ease and calm" paying for a $12 million house?! And I doubt its builder is feeling much "ease and calm" right now, trying unsuccessfully to sell this huge spec.

The view over the gate below doesn't show the larger part of the house out of frame to the left.

Below is what the former house looked like in 2004 from about the same place, after selling for $5,500K. It had a sweet spaciousness.

Weekly inventory update

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market.

A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70 
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08         64   2  92 143  53   1 143 129  72   5 126
12/12/08         62   3  93 154  48   2 136 114  70   6 141
12/19/08         54   3  84 159  52   4 138 126  66   8 149
12/26/08 

Not selling in Palisades

There's quite a bit not happening in Pacific Palisades worth mentioning, but these two stand out. First is 680 Bienveneda Ave. (above), the fourth lot below busy Sunset Blvd., a 3 bed / 2 bath maybe-attempted-flip going noplace. Last sold 4/26/05 for $1,369.5K, it listed 8/6/08 for $1,549K, presumably expecting some profit for a fix-up. Oops. Three reductions later it was down to $1,349K two weeks ago.

"FIRE-SALE! Seller says "SELL!" Major $200,000 PRICE REDUCTION on the CUTEST house on the BEST street in the Palisades! Recently renovated w/exquisite detail, this cozy beach bungalow features hardwood floors, a fireplace, French doors, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom closets, Waterworks fixtures, Bose surround sound speakers, plantation shutters & an al-fresco dining patio w/outdoor fireplace - perfect for entertaining! BEST 3 BEDROOM HOUSE IN THE PALISADES FOR THE MONEY!"

Then there's the current record oldest listing below $2M in Palisades, 1104 Via de la Paz (above), the fourth lot above Sunset (a pattern here?), a 2 bed / 2 bath house now reduced 38% to $1,399K, 412 days since being listed 11/2/07 at $2,250K. Hard to say what its last sale price was: the Assessor has it Recorded 8/15/05 for $1,545K, while Zillow shows a sale 5/23/08 for $1,736K. The latter may be the sale to the bank.

"BANK OWNED REO!! CONTEMPORARY SINGLE STORY IN THE HEART OF PACIFIC PALISADES JUST STEPS FROM VILLAGE, SCHOOLS, HIKING TRAILS AND MUCH MORE. NEW CARPET AND PAINT. SHOW AND SELL !"

More coming in low-end Pacific Palisades....

Venice canals update

Remember our discussion of the Venice Canals on September 1st? I wondered what happened to those 9 listings since then, and found a stark answer.

The least-expensive, 226 Carroll Canal (3/2.5, LP=$1,499K, -25% from OLP) is now Looking for Backup as a Short Sale after a 25% reduction. The second-least-expensive, 430 Linnie Canal (3/2.5, $2,299K) sold close to asking for $2,227K on 10/1. One is still available (457 Howland Canal, 4/4, $3,000K, -5%).

But the other 6 are all Expired / Withdrawn. Couldn't sell anything over $2.25M in a prime Westside neighborhood.

Four new listings round out the 5 now available:

2337 Eastern Canal, 1/1.5, $1,699K (-13%), 10/27/08
429 Sherman Canal, 3/3.5, $2,850K (-14%), 10/6/08
416 Linnie Canal, 4/3.5, $2,995K (-3%), 10/2/08
2407 Eastern Canal, 4/3, $3,165K (-6%), 9/10/08

November DataQuick

Today's November DataQuick numbers declined yet again. Median prices are now down 38.2% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were off 13% from November 2007 and 26% from October 2008. (October DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to November 2003, Orange County to April 2003, Ventura County to March 2003, and San Diego all the way to March 2002.

Weekly inventory update

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market.

A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisdades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08         64   2  92 143  53   1 143 129  72   5 126
12/12/08         62   3  93 154  48   2 136 114  70   6 141
12/19/08          

North of Montana <$3M outcomes update

I received an email from "E" asking, "Can you do a post summarizing all the lower-end 90402 that have closed in November / December, in the midst of all this equity market turmoil?"

It's been some time since our July list of outcomes, and some of you can never get enough of 90402, so it's timely to give an update of all the MLS listings I've tracked (in order of final listing price). Note all the recently-Withdrawn listings, that may dump back on the market next spring.

Sold

476 26th, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$1,685K (-14% from OLP), OLD=11/7/07, SD=5/28/08, SP=$1,575K (-7% from LP)
420 7th, 2/2, $1,699K (-8%), 2/8/08, 9/29/08, $1,600K (-6%)
1140 San Vicente, lot, $1,895K (-14%), 1/30/08, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
704 15th, 2/1, $1,990K (-13%), 8/22/07, 2/25/08, $2,100K (+6%)
517 Euclid, 5/2, $2,139K (-3%), 4/19/08, 8/8/08, $2,079K (-3%)
460 Lincoln, 3/3, $2,195K (-8%), 4/14/08, 11/21/08, $1,900K (-13%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,195K, 1/28/08, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
710 19th, 3/2, $2,295K (-8%), 3/10/08, 7/19/08, $2,086K (-9%)
334 15th, 2/1, $2,295K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,400K (+5%)
249 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 4/10/08, 5/28/08, $2,500K (+6%)
231 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,325K (-1%)
402 19th, 2/2, $2,325K, 9/4/08, 12/4/08, $2,215K (-5%)
751 24th, 5/5, $2,350K, 9/10/08, 11/12/08, $2,254K (-4%)
416 21st Place (photo), 3/1.75, $2,375K, 9/4/08, 10/31/08, $2,185K (-8%)
423 15th, 3/1.75, $2,379K, 7/9/08, 10/15/08, $2,365K (-1%)
447 11th, 3/2, $2,385K (-6%), 8/18/07, 4/15/08, $2,385K
626 19th, 4/3, $2,389K, 6/13/08, 8/15/08, $2,401K (+1%)
327 21st, 3/2, $2,395K, 6/12/08, 7/2/08, $2,300K (-4%)
416 17th, 3/2, $2,399K (-6%), 11/29/07, 2/26/08, $2,360K (-2%)
701 20th, 3/3.5, $2,595K, 3/24/08, 5/20/08, $2,500K (-4%)
316 18th, 3/1.75, $2,598K, 2/8/08, 3/28/08, $2,415K (-7%)
238 17th, 4/3.5, $2,635K (-2%), 3/11/08, 6/20/08, $2,550K (-3%)
241 24th, 3/2, $2,695K (-7%), 1/9/08, 4/15/08, $2,695K
214 Euclid, 3/2, $2,700K, 4/4/08, 5/22/08, $3,350K (+24%)
633 Euclid, 4/3, $2,750K, 4/22/08, 7/25/08, $2,675K (-3%)
1230 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K, 9/18/08, 11/25/08, $2,810K (-3%)
303 22nd, 3/3, $2,895K, 6/23/08, 8/21/08, $3,000K (+4%)
621 19th, 3/2.5, $2,895K, 3/8/08, 6/9/08, $2,675K (-8%)
234 Alta, 3/3, $2,980K, 3/14/08, 8/7/08, $2,675K (-10%)
710 23rd, 4/3, $2,999K (-9%), 7/13/07, 4/29/08, $2,900K (-3%)

Sale Pending

534 19th, 2/2, $2,250K, 9/3/08, Looking for Backup 10/12/08

Expired or Withdrawn

426 4th, 3/3, $1,929K, 10/17/08, Withdrawn 11/18/08
733 20th, 3/2, $2,099K, 10/27/08, Withdrawn 12/3/08
702 11th, 3/2, $2,169K, 5/29/08, Withdrawn 7/24/08
517 14th, 3/2.75, $2,198K (-8%) 5/1/08, Withdrawn 11/21/08
754 23rd, 4/3.5, $2,279K (-15%), 6/8/06, Expired
738 22nd, 3/2.5, $2,395K, 2/11/08, Expired
1020 San Vicente, 5/4.5, $2,665K (-11%), 7/9/07, Expired
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08, Withdrawn 11/3/08
212 24th, 3/3.5, $2,795K (-11%), 5/30/08, Withdrawn 12/5/08

(LP=latest List Price; OLP=Original List Price; OLD=Original Listing Date, across re-listings; SD=Sale Date; SP=Sale Price)

Beach Tract block party

As an addendum to South Beach Tract, here is a block party on Fraser in 2005 (don't forget you can click to enlarge photos now). They have a nice little community!

South Beach Tract

I received an email interested in comments on 127 Hollister Ave. Which I suggested should broaden into a look at the South Beach Tract, the small pocket of historic bungalows next to the beach north of Ocean Park Blvd. and west of Nielson Way in Ocean Park.

We'll start with 127 Hollister (the Spanish house, center-left above), a 3 bed / 4 bath house built new in 2005 (along with the two east of it) on what had been a single lot with a little old stucco house. Originally listed 10/2/08 for $3,395K, it was reduced 12% to $2,999K in late November. Note the part about bankruptcy in its description:

"Located on 100 feet of Ocean Avenue with stunning whitewater ocean views, this immaculate 3 bedroom, 4 bath Spanish home was custom built in 2005. The entire top floor is a romantic master suite and sitting room with a luxurious bath and spa tub. The gourmet kitchen features a charming breakfast area and ocean view. Entertain in style on the spacious 2nd floor terrace. Subject to bankruptcy court approval; Property sold "as is"; Addendum to accompany all offers."

The other current listing is the 2 bed / 1.5 bath remodeled bungalow, listed 10/22/08 for $3,295K at 124 Hart Ave. (tall dark-green on left above), described as:

"Rare 1904 quintessential beach bungalow completely restored to green standards w/ ocean views. Original charm & details, antique wide planked floors, bead board, moldings & built in window seat. Solar panels, hydronic floor heating system, dual-glazed low-E windows, skylight, security system & sound. Cook’s kitchen w/ marble counter tops + premium appliances. 2 car direct access garage, grassy yard & bonus room/guest house. Steps from the beach, gorgeous ocean views, walk to Main Street."

I've thought of low-end (which these aren't) South Beach Tract houses as priced like low-end north of Montana; you get less lot (only 1,890 SF at 124 Hart) but you're by the beach.

Looking for recent sales, I don't see any in 2008! Which doesn't look good for the two current listings at even higher prices. These two didn't sell:

150 Fraser, 2/2, LP=$2,050K (-18%), LD=10/4/07, Withdrawn 9/8/08
152 Hart, 4/3, $2,200K, 2/8/08, Expired 8/08

Looking back to 2006-2007 I find:

133 Hart, 4/2.5, $2,189K, 5/3/07, SD=7/11/07, SP=$2,189K
150 Fraser, 2/2, $2,395K (-4%), 10/4/07, Expired 12/07
136 Wadsworth, 4/4, $2,695K (+2%), 2/18/07, 5/4/07, $2,600K (-4%)
152 Hart, 4/3.5, $2,599K (-4%), 8/06, 10/31/06, $2,560K (-2%)
136 Wadsworth, 4/3, $2,750K, 9/06, 5/4/07, $2,600K (-5%)
120 Hart, 5/4, $2,980K, 7/06, 1/4/07, $2,700K (-9%)

Weekly inventory update

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisdades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08         64   2  92 143  53   1 143 129  72   5 126
12/12/08          

Oldest of the old

There are ancient listings and then there's the oldest of them all: the 5 bed / (but only) 2.5 bath house at 1135 Berkeley St. in Santa Monica. Originally listed in April 2006 for $2,450K, relisted at least three times with a variety of price reductions, some 958 days later it's now down 27% to $1,788K. That's over 2-1/2 years!

See Westside Story's comments last spring (that suggest it goes back to 2005 and nearly $3M). Don't know its last sale, but Zillow's very low property tax of $2,447K put it decades ago. A crop of its MLS photo is above; its description is (emphasis added):

"Another Price Reduction! North of Wilshire, 2-story Traditional-style home. Living room has wood burning fireplace; formal dining room. Beautiful hardwood floors, coved ceilings & authentic details. All new double-paned, tinted windows. Sunny kitchen with Viking & Bosch appliances. Plumbing is mostly copper. Huge, flat backyard with plenty of room for pool. Seller has maintenance contract with Economy Roofing for cleaning of gutters & inspecting of roof."

Note that joints between new copper and old galvanized pipes are prone to corrosion, so "mostly copper" is not "all copper". And why does the roof need an inspection contract?

Sunset Park 16% off in 2 years

Aarrrgggg - too many graphs! Remedied by an email tip from reader Lori about the 4 bed / 3 bath house at 2450 Euclid in Sunset Park (second block north of Ocean Park Blvd.).

Originally listed 9/26/08 for $1,375K, three price reductions later it's down to $1,175K.

The kicker is, Lori noted it last sold 11/22/06 for $1,400K (quickly, I'd add, after being listed about 11/10/06 for $1,410K). That's at least a 16% reduction in 2 years.

And a mystery we hope one of you can help with. Its description begins, "$100k Reduction! Agents please see private remarks." What is hidden in the private remarks that mere bloggers don't have access to?

Also, I finally figured out that if I upload a bigger photo you can click on it for more detail. Duh! So I'll start doing that with this one.

**********

Our condolences on Tanta's passing at Calculated Risk. You can measure a life by how many others it has touched. What a tribute to her that her delicious writing connected with so many others! She will live on in our hearts and minds.

Inventory charts

SM listings, sales, withdrawn / expired

Monthly inventory update

11/28 - Inventory is pretty flat for the month in Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades - despite a number of withdrawn listings - in contrast to its drop-off in past Novembers. Mar Vista has declined for the month and compared with 2007. Total Westside is up for the month, especially from high-priced areas like Beverly Hills, Malibu, and Hollywood Hills. Graphs will come soon.

11/21 - Inventory in all three areas (SM, PP, MV) is pretty flat from last week. Beneath the placid surface were more price reductions, a number of withdrawn listings, and a few failed escrows back on the market. I'll post some details next week.

Remember 2502 Marguerita, asking $5,495K? It closed really fast on 11/20 for an even $5,000K.

11/14 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up a little, while Mar Vista is down slightly.

The reduced-50% house at 16463 Akron in PP (3/2, $1,595K) was withdrawn after over 480 days on market. Our sandwiched-between-big-buildings 3766 Sawtelle in Mar Vista (3/2 $550K) was withdrawn, and the similar 3935 Inglewood (2/1, $555K) expired. Lots more in Santa Monica will be in separate posts.

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/ 7/08         64   6  89 130  54   2 159 120  80   2 117
11/14/08         66   9  93 130  56   4 158 113  78   5 121
11/21/08         66  11  93 137  56   5 156 120  78   8 131
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08          

All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30     8/1    10/3   11/28
                2/29     5/2    6/27    8/29   10/31 
Bel Air-H.Hls.85  82  95 100 108 110 115 113 115 113 107
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71  67  75  79  80  78  80  72  62  67  66
Beverly Hills 65  64  66  78  84  79  90  90  94  98 113
B.H. P.O.     78  80  92  95 101 113 118 121 125 123 117
B'wood Vic.   50  56  53  57  67  58  53  59  55  55  57
Brentwood     77  86  96 104 108 116 115 109 124 140 142
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21  19  20  24  25  31  34  33  38  40  41
Culver City   42  48  50  57  59  58  49  58  61  63  62
Malibu       185 200 213 242 261 266 265 258 240 244 260
Malibu Beach  38  49  57  60  50  49  59  61  59  52  59
Marina Del Rey26  36  25  25  26  27  32  33  33  35  42
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120 108 128 159 151
Palms-M.Vista 89  88  82  90  92  96  99  91  84  83  73
Playa Del Rey 22  19  15  15  23  24  28  29  26  25  26
Playa Vista    5   4   6   5   5   9   9   7   7   8   8
Santa Monica  67  68  81  84  79  98  89  79  82  90  91
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278 256 292 291 306
Topanga       49  44  63  69  66  62  60  61  62  69  88
Venice        72  72  74  83  85  77  89  79  83  96 100
W.H'wood Vic. 48  51  48  43  46  46  55  62  64  61  55
West L.A.     20  18  25  25  25  26  33  27  29  25  23
Westchester   72  54  79  86  91  88  82  76  78  77  70
W'wood-C.City 37  36  42  49  53  61  67  60  65  71  71
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2008 Total  1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                1524    1846    1974    1942    2085
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

Tipped south of Washington

We have a split decision on the two south of Washington listings we reviewed on 10/18/08 in the single-family neighborhood bounded by California, Washington, 22nd, and 25th, that both closed yesterday.

First, the ($100K-reduced) $1,299K low-end 3 bed / 1.75 bath 1030 Chelsea (photo above), sold for $1,200K. This is way below 2007 local comps 1020 Chelsea, $1,478K, and 1024 23rd, $1,445K, a rollback to 2004 pricing.

On the other hand, 2/2 2312 California (photo below), asking $1,395K (after a quick $100K price cut), sold for $1,375K, only slightly below its previous sale 7/12/06 for $1,392K. Although it did claim $100K of fix-up, so with selling costs it's a significant loss for the seller.

Both make the recent 3/2 listing at 2507 California for $1,599K look absurd, especially as it's on the block next to noisy 26th Street.

See the comps back to 2004 at the 10/18/08 post.

North of Montana index

Here's an update on my low-end north-of-Montana index to go with the latest S&P/Case-Shiller, showing low-end sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid, scaled to equal the Case-Shiller index in 1990 (where 100 = $750K).

Because there has been only one such sale in over a year, I've shown similarly low-end but not on those four streets sales (three red dots above, two gray listings below), including yesterday's not-tear-down 460 Lincoln for $1,900K.

If lot value on 9th-10th-12th-Euclid is now around $1.7M (above the non-MLS 370 22nd, but below 460 Lincoln), that would put it back to early-mid 2005, per my list since 2000 below. If you think lot value is down to $1.6M (I'm not convinced yet), that's actually mid-2004 - not far off S&P/Case-Shiller for LA being back to early 2004. So even in 90402 the price momentum is now down.

1/00 $750K 518 10th
5/01 $995K 550 Euclid
6/02 $1,000K 544 Euclid
11/02 $1,100K 402 10th
5/03 $1,375K 229 12th
6/03 $1,397K 602 10th
7/03 $1,401K 627 Euclid
9/04 $1,610K 633 10th
12/05 $1,795K 717 Euclid
3/06 $1,976K 502 Euclid
6/07 $2,050K 307 Euclid
6/07 $2,160K 433 12th
8/08 $2,079K 517 Euclid
10/08 $1,600K 370 22nd
11/08 $1,900K 460 Lincoln

The full list since 1981 is in the first comment of this 9/18/07 post.

September S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's September 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 32.6% from its peak in September 2006, back to early 2004 levels.

By month that's 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 23.4% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $366,096, $366,096 - $522,784, and Over $522,784; updated for September). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 43.8%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another 1.7% to 22.7% from its June 2006 peak.

Breaking news: 460 Lincoln $1.9M

Another data point, north of Montana and not a tear-down for $1.9M: Originally listed 4/14/08 for $2,395K, withdrawn in June, relisted 8/20/08 for $2,195K, this 3 bed / 3 bath house at 460 Lincoln Blvd. just closed for $1,900K (13% below last asking).

A little quirky but not a tear-down, this large 2,471 SF house has been expanded across most of its back yard. Lincoln is busier than some streets, but not like 7th. Its description is:

"Wonderfully updated home in quiet location north of Montana. 3 bedrooms, 3 baths plus fam room. Large bright open “hang out” cook’s kitchen with stainless appliances and granite counters. Huge master suite, 2 nice fireplaces, beautiful hardwood floors, skylights, great light, French doors, gated and fenced. Oversized 2 car garage with workshop area. ..."

Also see SM Distress Monitor on 9/22.

Weekly inventory update

11/21 - Inventory in all three areas (SM, PP, MV) is pretty flat from last week. Beneath the placid surface were more price reductions, a number of withdrawn listings, and a few failed escrows back on the market. I'll post some details next week.

Remember 2502 Marguerita, asking $5,495K? It closed really fast on 11/20 for an even $5,000K.

11/14 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up a little, while Mar Vista is down slightly.

The reduced-50% house at 16463 Akron in PP (3/2, $1,595K) was withdrawn after over 480 days on market. Our sandwiched-between-big-buildings 3766 Sawtelle in Mar Vista (3/2 $550K) was withdrawn, and the similar 3935 Inglewood (2/1, $555K) expired. Lots more in Santa Monica will be in separate posts.

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/ 7/08         64   6  89 130  54   2 159 120  80   2 117
11/14/08         66   9  93 130  56   4 158 113  78   5 121
11/21/08         66  11  93 137  56   5 156 120  78   8 131
11/28/08          

Bigger events

I was going to recap the latest in low-end Sunset Park, but bigger events seem rather more important. Hope you all saw this comparison of this stock market crash to others on Calculated Risk, from dshort.com (see originals for full chart). The S&P 500's over-50% fall from its peak might even impact buyers in 90402, no?

Karl Denninger repeated, but worth copying here,

The market and economy will not stop falling apart until:

1. Paulson is fired and his policies cease.
2. We have transparency in balance sheets - for every firm on the exchange. No exceptions. All Level 3 asset mark models and assets identified - period.
3. Bernanke withdraws all his alphabet soup programs or is removed from office and his successor does, and the "crowding out" in the credit markets ceases.

It's that simple, and all three must happen before we will see any sort of sustainable bottom put in. ...

The credit market was right and those who said it couldn't happen were wrong.

Yet it was another beautiful Santa Monica day! I'm optimistic that, although it will take time, out of this wreckage real estate prices will return to reality, and the new administration's focus on things of substance like investment in a sustainable energy policy will help rebuild the economy.

October DataQuick

More of the same in today's October DataQuick numbers. Median prices are now down 35.5% for Los Angeles County from its peak a year ago August. Volumes rose 9% from August and a huge 56% from October 2007 - but are still well below the previous three Octobers. (September DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to February 2004, Orange County to June 2003, Ventura County to April 2003, and San Diego all the way to June 2002 (LA unchanged, others one month earlier than last month).

New low-end north of Montana

Yet more north of Montana, here are two new listings and a recent sale to update our 10/31/08 low-end north of Montana sales.

Just listed 11/12 is this 3 bed / 2 bath, 1,733 SF house at 320 9th Street, on a 50 foot lot (7,500 SF), asking $2,095K, described as:

"BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY ENGLISH COTTAGE CURB APPEAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS HOME IN A GREAT NORTH OF MONTANA LOCATION. ... LARGE FORMAL DINING ROOM, KITCHEN W/EATING AREA AND ENCLOSED PATIO. AMENITIES INCLUDE A NICE YARD AND LARGE ROOMS. THE HOME NEEDS SOME TLC, REMODEL OR BUILD NEW."

This is really cute and pretty big, I'd think worth more than lot value. Redo the kitchen and bathrooms and you'd likely have a nicely-finished smaller house (I haven't been inside). I think I recall its brick facade was repaired after the 1994 earthquake.

Second is this 3 bed / 2.5 bath, 2,556 SF house at 209 25th Street, on a 60 foot lot (8,700 SF), asking $2,050K, described as:

"This is a one story ranch style with 3 bedroom, 2 ½ bathrooms and a large great room. There is a detached 2 car garage that is accessed from San Vicente Blvd. The property is being sold in as –is condition without any warranties or guarantees. Easy to show."

This seems similar in size and San Vicente Blvd. noise proximity to the 2 bed / 2.5 bath house 219 23rd Street, 7,975 SF lot, sold 1/28/08 for $1,880K, which we featured 2/19/08.

Finally, this 3 bed / 1.75 bath, 1,644 SF house at 416 21st Place on a 60 foot lot (9,000 SF) closed 10/31/08 for $2,185K, 8% off its 9/4/08 listing price of $2,375K.

"Wonderful Traditional home in Gillette's Regent Square. Live in, remodel or rebuild. 3BD, 1.75BA + converted garage to office with bath & FP. Beautiful hardwood floors thruout. High ceilings & FP in LR, charming breakfast room off kitchen, A/C, unique "gumwood" doors & windows, original tiles in bath. Attic w/darkroom, sink & lots of storage. Nice backyard w/mature trees. Do not miss! ..."

This is the lowest Gillette sales price since early 2006, except Montana-close 710 19th (closed 7/19/08 for $2,086K), in the 9/7/08 Gillette Regents Square low-end sales history.

Success and failure north of Montana

Here are tales of two spec builders north of Montana, which some of you can never get enough of....

One may have sold the highest-priced new house on a regular lot (60-foot, 8,700 SF) east of 7th Street. The 5 bed / 6 bath house at 2502 Marguerita (above) was listed 10/1/08 for $5,625M, beating our last record of $5,200K, and entered escrow 11/4. Last sale was 10/23/03 for $1,695K, according to Zillow. It's described as:

"Beautiful, warm & spacious super cool contemporary in coveted No of Montana location. Almost 7000 sqft feet of brand new, quality construction w/top of the line finishes. The main level of the home features a large open floor plan, a study and sleek eat-in kitchen. Upstairs is home to 4 generous bedrooms inc. grand master w/spa bath, & lower level is an entertainer's dream: screening room, gym, wine cellar, office. The outdoor areas offer dining patios, nice grass yard, and a great rooftop deck."

The other appears to be bailing, attempting to sell the vacant lot-and-a-half (11,250 SF) at 444 10th Street, with Richard Ramirez (architect of high-end Spanish houses) plans (but apparently not permits) for $3,130K. SM Distress Monitor covered this today. Wonder if construction financing dried up?

Listed 12/21/06 for $2,700K, I recorded it selling 6/6/07 for $2,750K. Above is a "time warp" interior photo of the two-story old bungalow that has since been demolished (I was hoping to find a photo of the front). But its most recent sale appears to be 8/15/07 for $2,950K. Did the first buyer resell it?

Added (thanks, Frank!!): Here's the MLS photo of the old house, and confirmation of its 6/7/07 sale for $2,750K.

Weekly inventory update

11/14 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up a little, while Mar Vista is down slightly.

The reduced-50% house at 16463 Akron in PP (3/2, $1,595K) was withdrawn after over 480 days on market. Our sandwiched-between-big-buildings 3766 Sawtelle in Mar Vista (3/2 $550K) was withdrawn, and the similar 3935 Inglewood (2/1, $555K) expired. Lots more in Santa Monica will be in separate posts.

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/ 7/08         64   6  89 130  54   2 159 120  80   2 117
11/14/08         66   9  93 130  56   4 158 113  78   5 121
11/21/08 

SM listings, sales, withdrawn / expired

Looky-loo Mike's comment inspired me to post the other half of these graphs for October. Inventory grows from new listings, and shrinks from sales and listings withdrawn / expired. Here are those for Santa Monica, divided into <$3M and >$3M. Observations:

* Both new listings and sales <$3M were unusually low some months this year;
* Withdrawn and Expired listings exceeded Sold listings in October.