Monthly inventory charts

The light green bars for January 2009, the first month of the new year, show inventory is significantly up everywhere except Palms-Mar Vista. (Is it any coincidence that is the only area where conforming loans apply?) This is the growing glut that, combined with reduced buyers' assets and higher jumbo loan rates, will tip prices down this year.

Days-on-Market charts

This is a new series of charts, to compare Days-on-Market (DOM) over months and years. January 2009 is a record for Januaries and nearly the highest for any month. This shows the growing glut of stale inventory, that in many cases is cutting prices to finally sell. (Note that I count DOM from the first listing of a property, across delistings and relistings.)

Added note: These increasing averages mask the reality that well-priced desirable houses still sell quickly, while the rest mostly sit unsold. It would be a mistake to conclude that all listings sell, just wait patiently because it takes longer now.

SM listings, sales, withdrawn/expired

New listings are about the same as past years; sales are down; and withdrawn and expired listings are up, resulting in rising inventories. (Surprise!)

Monthly inventory update

1/30/09 - Inventory for all three areas are up for both the week and the month. Santa Monica is up over the end of January 2008; Pacific Palisades <$2M is over double; but Palms-Mar Vista is lower.

1/23/09 - Big jump for the week in Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades inventories, from 12 net new listings each plus relistings of previously expired/withdrawn. In contrast, Mar Vista was about flat for the week and month so far.

Even bigger news is new price cuts, including our north of Montana indicators 320 9th Street from $1,999K to $1,895K, 209 25th Street from $2,050K to $1,899K, and more-fixed-up 620 22nd Street relisted from $2,395K to $2,249K.

1/16/09 - Inventory was pretty flat for the week, but the total doesn't reflect old listings expiring, former listings back on the market, a few new listings, and a couple into escrow.

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/ 2/09         48   0  75 166  45   0 126 140  61   0 149
 1/ 9/09         57   6  84 166  49   1 136 155  65   5 137
 1/16/09         56   7  83 181  49   5 144 160  63   6 135
 1/23/09         62  12  89 185  55  12 155 140  62   8 138
 1/30/09 38,486  67  16  94 181  59  14 157 145  66  13 157
 2/ 6/09

All Westside

            1/30    3/27    5/29    7/31    10/2   11/27
                2/27     5/1    6/26    8/28   10/30   12/31 
B.Air-H.Hls. 101
Bv.Ctr.-M.M.  58
Beverly Hls. 109
B.H. P.O.    127
Bvywd.Vic.    47
Brentwood    146
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31
Culver City   52
Malibu       254
Malibu Beach  63
Marina D.Rey  32
P.Palisades  157
Palms-M.Vista 66
Playa Del Rey 24
Playa Vista    6
Santa Monica  94
Sunset-Hwd.H.285
Topanga       70
Venice       104
W.Hwood.Vic.  61
West L.A.     20
Westchester   53
Wwood.-C.City 67
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2009 Total  2027

2008 Total  1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

A projection

Let's plug the old crystal ball into the new Case-Shiller and try a few assumptions. I've added to it our North of Montana Index and two new lines, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index and Santa Monica Household Income, both scaled to match the Case-Shiller at the beginning of 1980.

Ability to buy pricey Westside houses depends on (1) income to make mortgage payments, (2) loan rates and standards, and (3) assets to make down payments. Let's assume:

1. Upper-end incomes rose faster than the trend the last few years, but the financial crash will return those to trend.

2. Lax lending standards of the last few years are over, and rates for Jumbo loans are similar to the last period of very low rates, when the Fed rate fell to 1.25% in November 2002 and 1.0% in June 2003.

3. Assets for down payments are from previous house sales and/or financial assets. The stock market is now below its October 2002 bottom. Overall L.A. County house prices are back to the beginning of 2004 and still falling steeply.

Asset values and loan terms point back to late 2002 (black line). That also happens to be where the Income line crosses the North of Montana Index. Therefore it seems likely for middle Westside prices (below the very rich and above Conforming loans) to revert to those levels plus around 23% from the income trend (end of 2002 to end of 2009), if not overshoot.

For low-end north of Montana that would be about $1,100K* + $250K = $1,350K, around 33% below the peak of a little over $2,000K. The magenta X marks the spot. (* 402 10th Street sold for $1,100K on 11/25/02)

Another way to look at this is $1,350K represents a reversion to spring 2003 low-end prices (229 12th Street sold on 4/10/03 for $1,375K), somewhere in 2010.

What does this suggest for Los Angeles? The Los Angeles Household Income line crosses the LA Case-Shiller curve farther back, about the end of 1999. That is a decade along the flatter Los Angeles Household Income line, about 35%. The Case-Shiller index for January 2000 is 100. Adding 35% equals 135, the index value of mid-2002.

Case-Shiller for Los Angeles peaked at 274 in September 2006. From symmetry of the curve, reversion to 135 - a 50% drop - should also occur in 2010.

So there it is, in round numbers: a 50% drop for Los Angeles (reverting to 2002 prices) and 33% drop for the Westside (reverting to 2003), both falls finishing in 2010.

November S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's November 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 35.8% from its peak in September 2006, back to January 2004 levels. Notice how symmetrical it has been (unlike the DataQuick median prices). It's still retracing another month with each new month passed.

By month that's 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 26.6% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $338,539, $338,539 - $511,777, and Over $511,777; updated for November). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 47.0%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down a steeper 2.3% to 26.1% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to March 2004.

First Fed

Calculated Risk broke the news this evening that First Federal Financial Corp. announced layoffs and an Order to Cease and Desist by the Office of Thrift Supervision.

A reader requested, "Please guys - I know the community will have things to say and the comments on Calc risk were absolute drivel." Comments here are open....

Development perspective

Click on this photo and scroll down to get the awesome full perspective of a bubble-era real estate development project (admittedly not on the Westside of Los Angeles; via a viral email that came my way).

Weekly inventory update

1/24/09 - Big jump for the week in Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades inventories, from 12 net new listings each plus relistings of previously expired/withdrawn. In contrast, Mar Vista was about flat for the week and month so far.

Even bigger news is new price cuts, including our north of Montana indicators 320 9th Street (photo) from $1,999K to $1,895K, 209 25th Street from $2,050K to $1,899K, and more-fixed-up 620 22nd Street relisted from $2,395K to $2,249K.

1/17/09 - Inventory was pretty flat for the week, but the total doesn't reflect old listings expiring, former listings back on the market, a few new listings, and a couple into escrow.

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

      LA County  Santa Monica Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/ 2/09         48   0  75 166  45   0 126 140  61   0 149
 1/ 9/09         57   6  84 166  49   1 136 155  65   5 137
 1/16/09         56   7  83 181  49   5 144 160  63   6 135
 1/23/09         62  12  89 185  55  12 155 140  62   8 138
 1/20/09

DataQuick Westside zipcodes

One of the two main indices of house sale prices we track are DataQuick's median prices (monthly for LA, above). Although less accurate than the S&P/Case-Shiller because it's affected by the mix of houses sold, it does give a sense of trends.

The totals for 2008 (posted on the LA Times LA Land blog; older ones I've saved on paper) suggest a down trend even on the Westside. Not as steep as countywide, but definitely down. Here are the main Westside zip codes I've been reporting on (I'll post more that you request in the comments).

Median prices and y-y changes for entire years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008

Los Angeles Countywide
$495K (20.1%), $541K (9.3%), $560K (3.7%), $400K ( -28.6%)

Santa Monica 90402
$2,214K (13.0%), $2,366K (9.4%), $2,725K (12.8%), $2,550K ( -9.9%)

Santa Monica 90405
$1,093K (26.6%), $1,113K (1.9%), $1,275K (14.5%), $1,100K ( -13.7%)

Pacific Palisades 90272
$1,750K (13.3%), $1,900K (8.4%), $1,985K (3.1%), $2,175K (4.3%)

Mar Vista 90066
$787K (16.1%), $830K (5.7%), $835K (0.6%), $760K ( -9.5%)

"winter of our hardship" bankrupt contractor

Hope you saw the inauguration today. On a sunny day filled with enthusiasm for "hope" I heard a heavy view of the near term in Obama's speech. Here's its last paragraph:

America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.

This new listing (photo above), of the 2 bed / 3 bath failed flip at 2219 14th Street, second lot north of Pearl in Sunset Park, asking $725K, is another example of growing local distress:

"Prime Santa Monica Location. No occupancy permit at present. Soon to be bank-owned. Contractor declared bankruptcy mid-rehab. Residence is still on temporary electical pole. Plans and inspection correction notices available. Property is listed as-is only and is subject to bank approval. Newly painted throughout. Most fixtures are new. Needs flooring, except kitchen and dining area which have been newly tiled. Wonderful fireplace in living room. Santa Monica School District."

I don't have a last sale price, but the Assessor valued it at $589,659 on 9/9/04.

LA Times: "post-bubble global recession"

Peter Gosselin's front page article in today's LA Times, "Better off in 4 years? Unlikely" gives a good description of the economic context ahead for Westside real estate. Note especially the quotes from Stephen Roach, who has a track record of being a prescient bear. Here are some highlights:

"We're in a post-bubble global recession, and post-bubble recessions are lethal for growth," Stephen S. Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said from Beijing. "It will be a long time before the world experiences anything more than anemic recovery." ...

What most worries analysts is not a cataclysm such as the Great Depression but the sort of economic morass into which Japan fell after its stock and real estate markets burst in the late 1980s and early '90s [chart above, 2007 post].

Daily life for most Japanese citizens wasn't terrible. There were few company shutdowns or mass layoffs. Indeed, the Japanese came to call their economic condition the "golden recession," said Simon Johnson, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The problem was that the country simply didn't grow -- and that, economists worry, is what could happen in the U.S. and around the world. ...

Although U.S. consumers constitute only about 4.5% of the global population, they bought more than $10 trillion worth of goods and services last year. By contrast, said Roach of Morgan Stanley Asia, Chinese and Indian consumers, who together account for 40% of global population, bought only $3 trillion worth.

In the last decade, a new generation of financial engineering -- complex deals involving home equity loans, subprime mortgages and other devices that provided easier access to credit -- seemed to make it safe for Americans to save less and consume more. That further expanded their share of global economic activity and made them even more indispensable here and abroad. ...

Initially, the expansion was heralded as evidence of economic vitality. But by now, it has become apparent that the growth was largely a debt-driven bubble -- and a double bubble at that, in housing and in personal consumption.

As the elaborate superstructure of easy credit began to pop rivets, consumers found themselves caught dangerously short. They have reacted by drastically cutting back on purchases, particularly those that are discretionary.

Retail sales in the last three months of 2008 plunged 7.7% compared with a year earlier, the government said last week, making it the worst sales quarter in more than 40 years. ...

"Decades of borrowing have finally caught up with consumers; they realize there is no more easy money left," said Allen Sinai, chief economist of Decision Economics Inc. "This is going to scar this generation of consumers the way the Great Depression did our fathers' and grandfathers'." ...

China and other Asian economies "were driven by export bubbles, which, in turn, were a play on the U.S. consumption bubble," Roach said. With the bubbles on both sides now burst, the U.S. and Asia are dragging each other down, he said. ...

December DataQuick

Today's December DataQuick numbers declined yet again. Median prices are now down 41.8% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 32% from December 2007 and 16% from November 2008, but are still below previous years. (November DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to July 2003, Orange County to March 2003, Ventura County to November 2002, and San Diego still at March 2002.

Good overview summary by DataQuick

The core trends of Southern California's 2008 housing market were on prominent display in December: Low-cost inland foreclosures sold briskly, builders had their worst month in decades, expensive markets remained in wait-and-see mode and lenders continued to hold back on making 'jumbo' home loans

and comment by Calculated Risk

This makes a few key points ... Significant price declines are probably coming in the more expensive areas. (price follows volume).

And here's an interesting revisit of my August 2007 post, "Return to historic costs/income" that quoted:

O.C. real estate consultant John Burns is telling his clients: “For prices to return to their historical median ratio of housing costs/income, national prices would need to revert back to ...

2003 Q3: Los Angeles
2003 Q1: Orange County
2002 Q2: San Diego

I posted a graph based on DataQuick median prices of what that could look like. The update of that graph shows steeper drops, that have already gone below the targets in Los Angeles and San Diego!

Weekly inventory update

1/9/09 - Inventory was pretty flat for the week, but the total doesn't reflect old listings expiring, former listings back on the market, a few new listings, and a couple into escrow.

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/ 2/09         48   0  75 166  45   0 126 140  61   0 149
 1/ 9/09         57   6  84 166  49   1 136 155  65   5 137
 1/16/09         56   7  83 181  49   5 144 160  63   6 135
 1/23/09

2008 Outcomes: North of Montana <$3M

Too much else to do, finally a chance to document the end of 2008. Let's start with our favorite, lower-end north of Montana. Here's everything I've tracked last year, in order of final listing price. Sales on regular lots (e.g. not 7th, 26th) at or below $2M are highlighted in red.

See also SM Distress Monitor's extensive 90402 postings and LateSummer2009's new Santa Monica Meltdown, The "90402".

Two low-end sales not on my list because they weren't on the MLS are:

733 20th, 3/2, sold 9/11/08 before the withdrawn listing below, $1,750K
370 22nd, 5/2, sold 10/7/08, $1,600K (-20%)

Sold

476 26th, 2 bed/2 bath, LP=$1,685K (-14% from OLP), OLD=11/7/07, SD=5/28/08, SP=$1,575K (-7% from LP)
420 7th, 2/2, $1,699K (-8%), 2/8/08, 9/29/08, $1,600K (-6%)
1140 San Vicente, lot, $1,895K (-14%), 1/30/08, 6/4/08, $1,675K (-12%)
704 15th, 2/1, $1,990K (-13%), 8/22/07, 2/25/08, $2,100K (+6%)
878 Woodacres, 3/3.5, $1,995K, 7/14/08, 8/28/08, $2,052K (+3%)
517 Euclid, 5/2, $2,139K (-3%), 4/19/08, 8/8/08, $2,079K (-3%)
460 Lincoln (photo), 3/3, $2,195K (-8%), 4/14/08, 11/21/08, $1,900K (-13%)
219 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,195K, 1/28/08, 4/9/08, $1,880K (-14%)
534 19th, 2/2, $2,250K, 9/3/08, 12/19/08, $2,000K (-11%)
710 19th, 3/2, $2,295K (-8%), 3/10/08, 7/19/08, $2,086K (-9%)
334 15th, 2/1, $2,295K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,400K (+5%)
249 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 4/10/08, 5/28/08, $2,500K (+6%)
231 18th, 3/1.75, $2,349K, 1/11/08, 2/8/08, $2,325K (-1%)
402 19th, 2/2, $2,325K, 9/4/08, 12/4/08, $2,215K (-5%)
751 24th, 5/5, $2,350K, 9/10/08, 11/12/08, $2,254K (-4%)
416 21st Place, 3/1.75, $2,375K, 9/4/08, 10/31/08, $2,185K (-8%)
423 15th, 3/1.75, $2,379K, 7/9/08, 10/15/08, $2,365K (-1%)
447 11th, 3/2, $2,385K (-6%), 8/18/07, 4/15/08, $2,385K
626 19th, 4/3, $2,389K, 6/13/08, 8/15/08, $2,401K (+1%)
327 21st, 3/2, $2,395K, 6/12/08, 7/2/08, $2,300K (-4%)
416 17th, 3/2, $2,399K (-6%), 11/29/07, 2/26/08, $2,360K (-2%)
701 20th, 3/3.5, $2,595K, 3/24/08, 5/20/08, $2,500K (-4%)
316 18th, 3/1.75, $2,598K, 2/8/08, 3/28/08, $2,415K (-7%)
238 17th, 4/3.5, $2,635K (-2%), 3/11/08, 6/20/08, $2,550K (-3%)
241 24th, 3/2, $2,695K (-7%), 1/9/08, 4/15/08, $2,695K
214 Euclid, 3/2, $2,700K, 4/4/08, 5/22/08, $3,350K (+24%)
633 Euclid, 4/3, $2,750K, 4/22/08, 7/25/08, $2,675K (-3%)
1230 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K, 9/18/08, 11/25/08, $2,810K (-3%)
303 22nd, 3/3, $2,895K, 6/23/08, 8/21/08, $3,000K (+4%)
621 19th, 3/2.5, $2,895K, 3/8/08, 6/9/08, $2,675K (-8%)
234 Alta, 3/3, $2,980K, 3/14/08, 8/7/08, $2,675K (-10%)
710 23rd, 4/3, $2,999K (-9%), 7/13/07, 4/29/08, $2,900K (-3%)

Expired or Withdrawn

426 4th, 3/3, $1,929K, 10/17/08, Withdrawn 11/18/08
733 20th, 3/2, $2,099K, 10/27/08, Withdrawn 12/3/08
702 11th, 3/2, $2,169K, 5/29/08, Withdrawn 7/24/08
517 14th, 3/2.75, $2,198K (-8%) 5/1/08, Withdrawn 11/21/08
1320 San Vicente, 3/3.5, $2,199K (-20%), 6/16/08, Expired
754 23rd, 4/3.5, $2,279K (-15%), 6/8/06, Expired
738 22nd, 3/2.5, $2,395K, 2/11/08, Expired
733 19th, 3/2.5, $2,449K (-9%), 5/15/08, Withdrawn 12/18/08
538 14th, 5/3.5, $2,550K, 10/16/08, Withdrawn 12/15/08
1020 San Vicente, 5/4.5, $2,665K (-11%), 7/9/07, Expired
634 12th, 3/2.5, $2,695K, 10/20/08, Withdrawn 12/18/08
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08, Withdrawn 11/3/08
212 24th, 3/3.5, $2,795K (-11%), 5/30/08, Withdrawn 12/5/08
1525 Georgina, 4/4, $2,799K (-12%), 8/6/08, Withdrawn 12/15/08

(LP=latest List Price; OLP=Original List Price; OLD=Original Listing Date, across re-listings; SD=Sale Date; SP=Sale Price)

Weekly inventory update

1/9/09 - Old listings back on the market and a few new ones have already jumped our inventory numbers back above their 1/2/09 and 12/31/08 levels. The spring glut is beginning to form.

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/ 2/09         48   0  75 166  45   0 126 140  61   0 149
 1/ 9/09         57   6  84 166  49   1 136 155  65   5 137
 1/16/09

2009

Here's my view ahead to 2009 real estate on the Westside.

On the supply side, we've seen the growing glut of high-end listings. And this week new listings and previously expired or withdrawn listings have already started coming back to market after the year-end low point.

Some sellers have been holding firm on prices and just sit unsold. But others do reduce prices, needing to sell, and create new, lower comps. We've already seen low-end north of Montana sales tip below $2 million and mainstream low-end Sunset Park tip below $1 million.

The demand side, even for upper-end houses, is even weaker:

1. Income to people in Los Angeles' recently top-earning industries, especially finance and entertainment, is falling. For example, the LA Times lead article last Friday was "A Bleak Picture for Big Studios". Not to mention hedge funds and mortgage lenders' bonuses.

2. Huge losses in the stock market in 2008 and/or equity losses in previous houses sold to move up restrict cash available for purchases.

3. Jumbo interest rates have not fallen like conforming rates have, and qualifying standards are up, including higher down payments just as buyers have fewer assets.

4. High-end glut will end much of the demand for tear-downs, just as it did in 1990.

5. I don't expect federal stimulus to change this much, let alone counter the larger impacts of local and state budget cuts.

It took limited supply and all of these demand factors to inflate the bubble to its peak levels. It must deflate without them, as we've (finally) begun to see. I'll make an attempt at how much and how fast in a future post.

2008 inventory charts

Santa Monica inventory finished the year up 24% (year-end 2008 over year-end 2007) for less than $3M asking price (above), and up a huge 155% for over $3M (below). A glut of high-end inventory is a major theme going into 2009.


Similarly Pacific Palisades inventory is up 147% for less than $2M (above) and up 54% for over $2M (below).


The exception is Palms/Mar Vista, down 20% (above). But the overall Westside is also up 37% (below).

SM 2008 listings, sales, withdrawn/expired

Higher-priced Santa Monica listings are up over previous years, adding to the glut of high-end houses. I expect this to collapse builders' demand for tear-down houses, a replay of the early 1990s.


Santa Monica sales are well down compared with the last two years.


The large number of withdrawn and expired listings later in 2008 even exceeds sales. I expect a number of these to come back to market this spring, adding to the existing glut of higher-end listings.

2008 Wrap-up

1/2/09 - Total Westside inventory, although at a seasonal low, is up 37% over 12/31/07 (graphs will follow).

I didn't expect much of any change from Wednesday 12/31/08 to Friday 1/2/09, and was surprised by more expired listings today, tempered by two listings back on the market attempting to get the jump on 2009.

12/26 - Slight decline for Santa Monica, a little more for Palisades, and a slight increase for Mar Vista, not that I'd expect much of a change over Christmas.

We'll have a lot of year-end wrap-up in the next week or so: large trends over 2008, graphs, and detailed lists.

12/19 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista inventory are down, predominantly withdrawals as you'd expect at the end of the year, but Pacific Palisades is actually up for the week.

Added: Hope you saw SM Distress Monitor's new post about 1337 Maple in Sunset Park selling for $825K. That's a typical lot size, not backing up to apartments, on a quiet street, almost down to $800K.

12/12 - Santa Monica is down slightly <$3M but up overall; Pacific Palisades is down a little; and Mar Vista is down a little, despite a number of Withdrawn listings, but with couple back on the market. A failed escrow at 1213 Oak (2/1.5, $895K) and sale of 2232 21st (2/1, $$1,079K) for $980K further establishes the low end of Sunset Park below $1M.

12/5 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, except Pacific Palisades over $2M is down some. Continuing more Expired and Withdrawn than new sales, including our highlighted 733 20th (3/2 asking $2,099K) and 212 24th (3/3.5 asking $2,795K). The two new Santa Monica escrows were 2407 Ashland (3/2, asking $1,325K) and 1133 Georgina (5/4.5, $5,995K).

 LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36  38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40  49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34  50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27  59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08         64   2  92 143  53   1 143 129  72   5 126
12/12/08         62   3  93 154  48   2 136 114  70   6 141
12/19/08         54   3  84 159  52   4 138 126  66   8 149
12/26/08         53   3  82 165  49   5 132 129  67  10 139
12/31/08 40,810  52   3  80 171  47   5 130 134  63  10 144
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/ 2/09         48   0  75 166  45   0 126 140  61   0 149
 1/ 9/09

All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30     8/1    10/3   11/28
                2/29     5/2    6/27    8/29   10/31   12/31 
Bel Air-H.Hls.85  82  95 100 108 110 115 113 115 113 107 104
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71  67  75  79  80  78  80  72  62  67  66  60
Beverly Hills 65  64  66  78  84  79  90  90  94  98 113  94
B.H. P.O.     78  80  92  95 101 113 118 121 125 123 117 110
B'wood Vic.   50  56  53  57  67  58  53  59  55  55  57  38
Brentwood     77  86  96 104 108 116 115 109 124 140 142 127
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21  19  20  24  25  31  34  33  38  40  41  31
Culver City   42  48  50  57  59  58  49  58  61  63  62  51
Malibu       185 200 213 242 261 266 265 258 240 244 260 231
Malibu Beach  38  49  57  60  50  49  59  61  59  52  59  49
Marina Del Rey26  36  25  25  26  27  32  33  33  35  42  23
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120 108 128 159 151 130
Palms-M.Vista 89  88  82  90  92  96  99  91  84  83  73  63
Playa Del Rey 22  19  15  15  23  24  28  29  26  25  26  23
Playa Vista    5   4   6   5   5   9   9   7   7   8   8   3
Santa Monica  67  68  81  84  79  98  89  79  82  90  91  80
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278 256 292 291 306 269
Topanga       49  44  63  69  66  62  60  61  62  69  88  69
Venice        72  72  74  83  85  77  89  79  83  96 100  81
W.H'wood Vic. 48  51  48  43  46  46  55  62  64  61  55  46
West L.A.     20  18  25  25  25  26  33  27  29  25  23  19
Westchester   72  54  79  86  91  88  82  76  78  77  70  51
W'wood-C.City 37  36  42  49  53  61  67  60  65  71  71  61
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2008 Total  1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                1524    1846    1974    1942    2085    1822
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.