Friday, September 28, 2007

Monthly inventory update

9/28 - Westside inventory is up 7.7% for the month. Santa Monica is up 2 and Palisades a huge 21, but Palms-Mar Vista is down 3.

All are close to flat for the week, a little activity after that dead weekend, but DOM still rising. Highlights: 834 Maple reduced its price from $2,100K to $1,975K, and 627 Euclid is in escrow.

9/21 - Santa Monica and Mar Vista are down, Palisades is up. Highlights:

2937 Delaware and 420 7th, SM appear to be in escrow.
813 Pier, SM appears relisted with a $50K reduction to $729K.
718 Marine, SM reduced $20K to $799K.
1621 Ashland, SM (architectural) reduced $40K to $1,610K.
716 Marine, SM after 2 months reduced $10K to $1,629K.
704 15th, SM reduced $305K to $1,990K!
3660 Corinth, MV (could not perform) reduced $20K to $678K
3778 Colonial, MV reduced another $15K to $770K.
3512 Greenwood, MV appears finally in escrow at LP=$849K.
12566 Woodbine, MV (flipper in a hurry) was relisted, LP=$1,199K.

9/14 - Westside inventory is up again this week in all three areas, especially Pacific Palisades <$2M up 5, including 2 back on the market.

9/7 - Westside inventory is up for the week in all three areas.

(I'm starting a new format of these, with new short weekly posts rather than updating the long one each week. See notes and the last monthly update.)

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

_________ _______________ _______________ ___________

1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
4/21/06 33,054 35
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 53 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 52 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 68 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/ 7/07 62 9 76 90 20 2 74 88 91 3 85
9/14/07 57,734 63 11 77 96 25 5 89 83 93 10 81
9/21/07 58,769 59 14 73 94 28 8 96 82 86 14 81
9/28/07 58 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 19 87
10/ 6/07
All Westside

              2/9  3/1  4/6  5/4  6/1 6/30 8/03 8/31 9/28
Bel Air-H.Hls. 86 86 92 100 103 99 86 99 104
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 64 57 48 53 54 65 64 67 75
Beverly Hills 67 70 56 46 53 49 59 61 62
B.H. P.O. 94 91 92 88 93 95 92 94 90
B'wood Vic. 35 36 31 39 38 41 42 46 50
Brentwood 67 71 73 75 72 68 86 77 89
Chev.-R.Pk.'8' 22 20 19 22 23 22 26 20 28
Culver City 35 25 20 28 33 36 41 48 49
Malibu 178 181 192 199 206 220 224 216 216
Malibu Beach 42 44 51 52 56 58 54 45 43
Marina Del Rey 20 20 20 27 29 28 26 27 26
Pac.Palisades 64 68 73 82 87 92 78 69 90
Palms-M.Vista 62 53 52 68 77 73 84 90 87
Playa Del Rey 7 8 17 20 21 20 21 24 29
Playa Vista 3 2 3 1 3 5 4 9 8
Santa Monica 50 50 49 53 61 57 68 72 74
Sunset-Hwd.H. 155 178 159 166 180 168 187 184 215
Topanga 39 41 36 43 45 54 49 54 55
Venice 64 64 57 68 70 72 69 68 68
W.H'wood Vic. 23 32 25 36 42 41 40 36 49
West L.A. 19 21 25 24 25 34 31 36 40
Westchester 53 46 47 45 53 52 62 72 82
W'wood-C.City 33 44 37 42 33 34 29 37 42
____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____
Total 1282 1308 1274 1377 1457 1483 1522 1551 1671
Month-month incr. 2% -3% 8% 6% 2% 3% 2% 8%

Notes

LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Let's say that a true teardown North of Montana sells for $1.5 million this week. A builder is allowed to build a house with a maximum of 3000 square feet at the basement level and 4500 square feet above ground. I am trying to figure out the total all-in cost for the builder - I have heard that it costs a builder 300 a square foot for really nice above ground work - so that is 1.35 million. But does anyone know how much it costs him to put in a nice finished basement? How much per square foot is that ?

What i am trying to get at is, if he spends 2 million on the land, and a certain ammt for the above ground part, a certain ammt for the below ground part, and he spends 20% of the total above on permits and carrying costs, how much does he need to sell it for when completed to break even.

I want to carefully go through the above analysis because i really can't understand how the numbers work - i just truly can't understand why a builder is going to bid 1.5 million for a north of montana teardown today.

help me understand

Anonymous said...

Westside, I used this web-site to track homes looking for back-up offers off the MLS. I take that term to mean there is an accepted offer between seller and buyer, but the home has not yet gone to escrow. I am not certain this automatically translates to a deal as things can come up, but it has been a tool to gauge the pace of a market for sure.
click on the link http://www.laestatehomes.com/find-your-home/mls-search-tool.html, then input the appropriate box..."looking for Back-up", then plug in the area of LA you want to see.
check it out. hope it is useful

Anonymous said...

Just drove by the new townhomes that are ready to hit the market at 839 9th Street. They look nice, but start at $1.475 for a 2 bed / 2.5 bath! Do you think people are actually going to buy units here at that price today? Assuming a 10% downpayment ($150,000) the buyer would be paying a $8,500 monthly mortgage payment at 6.5% for a 30 year fixed. Property taxes would be over $15,000 a year so monthly cost are closer to $10,000! Who can afford this who would want to live in a townhome? How long until the builder reduces their asking price? How long until they sell all 5 units?!

Westside Bubble said...

Good question, Anon#1. I don't know the cost of basement construction. Others?

Thanks, Anon#2. I use a similar MLS search portal that also includes "Looking for Backup". Looking for Backup status is a good indicator of a sale (vs. expired listings, for example), but unfortunately not every sale passes through that status. Some just pull the active listing.

Anon#3, I've been incredulous at new condo prices for awhile. In past downturns condos fell the most, as many buyers would rather buy a house if they can.

Mr.Mortgage said...

Westside! Your work needs more distribution. Excellent.

Millions of Homeowners Only Have Three Choices.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com

JBR said...

Sorry for the OT question, but what does the following series of transactions indicate? Between the same 2 people, not related AFAIK... Thanks!

12/30/1994 $275,000-Grant Deed-Resale
from Party 1 to Party 2

7/22/1997 $19,000-Grant Deed -Resale
from Party 2 to Party 1

12/24/1997 $19,000-Grant Deed-Resale
from Party 2 to Party 1

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