Sunday, September 2, 2007

1996 north-of-Montana prices

I ran across a list of prices of sold houses north of Montana in the second half of 1996, about the bottom of the last cycle (shown on the Los Angeles S&P/Case-Shiller graph, above, from Paper Economy).

"Lot value" for a typical 50x150 lot was a little over $600K. Jump into the time machine, here they are:

2222 San Vicente, $550K, 11/96, fixer traditional
241 Adelaide, $585K, 8/96, lot value ocean and canyon views
525 11th, $605K, 12/96, 3 bed 1750 SF, orig. cond. fixer
333 12th, $610K, 9/96, 3 bed 1500 SF orig. cond. traditional
440 17th, $638K, 10/96, 3 bed 1550 SF orig. cond. Spanish
404 12th, $640K, 10/96, 2 bed 1450 SF traditional
344 Euclid, $650K, 9/96, 3 bed 1873 SF remodelled Spanish
239 25th, $650K, 10/96, trad. fixer
558 10th, $655K, 8/96, 2 bed 1879 SF orig. cond. traditional
707 16th, $675K, 11/96, 3 bed 2500 SF traditional
1428 San Vicente, $679K, 8/96, 3 bed remodelled Spanish
513 Euclid, $697K, 11/96, 3 bed 1800 SF Tudor
514 25th, $700K, 8/96, 3 bed 2300 SF remodelled traditional
528 25th, $712K, 9/96, 4 bed 2300 SF traditional
326 9th, $715K, 11/96, 3 bed 1656 SF Spanish, rem. kitchen
214 15th, $740K, 12/96, 3 bed 2000 SF orig. cond. Spanish
418 24th, $822K, 10/96, 2 bed 1992 SF remodelled Spanish
334 14th, $850K, 10/96, 4 bed 2260 SF 2-story Tudor
514 Alta, $855K, 10/96, 3 bed 1800 SF 2-story trad. 60x175 lot
715 17th, $890K, 11/96, 3 bed 2155 SF remodelled Spanish
1030 San Vicente, $926K, 8/96, 5 bed 5380 SF 2-story Medit.
528 10th, $950K, 10/96, 4 bed 3000 SF new architectural
326 25th, $975K, 10/96, 8 bed 2-story remodelled Spanish
1021 Georgina, $1,010K, 11/96, renovated 2-story 60x173 lot
318 24th, $1,050K, 9/96, 4 bed 2884 SF 2-story remodelled trad.
477 21st Pl., $1,058K, 11/96, 4 bed 4200 SF remodelled Spanish
709 17th, $1,138K, 9/96, 3 bed remodelled 2-story Spanish
322 19th, $1,185K, 4 bed 4000 SF 2-story restored Spanish
2201 Alta, $1,195K, 8/96, 5 bed 2-story updated Cape Cod
409 Lincoln, $1,215K, 11/96, 5 bed 3600 SF 2-story architectural
1525 Georgina, $1,250K, 8/96, 5 bed 2-story traditional
422 22nd, $1,275K, 9/96, 5 bed 4682 SF new 2-story architectural
1321 Brentwood Terr., $1,295K, 9/96, 4 bed recent 2-story Medit.
1133 Georgina, $1,325K, 9/96, 14,620 SF lot fixer 2-story Spanish
244 16th, $1,395K, 10/96, 3 bed 2-story restored Spanish
217 20th, $1,450K, 12/96, 4 bed 4268 2-story Mediterranean
704 Palisades Bch. Rd., $1,450K, 9/96, 5 bed 3400 SF updated
201 Marguerita, $1,485K, 8/96, 4 bed 4665 SF 2-story '80s trad.
502 12th, $1,505K, 8/96, 5 bed new Spanish (Ramirez' first)
2159 La Mesa, $2,263K, 10/96, 4 bed 5107 SF house, 29,600 SF lot overlooking Riviera golf course
707 Palisades Bch. Rd., $3,000K, 9/96, 6 bed 8177 SF John Byers on beach


Kate said...

What a find! Totally fascinating.

Richard Mason said...

And for what it's worth, the CPI claims 28% inflation between 1996 and 2006. So on that basis we might expect prices starting in the high 700's.

WarChestSM said...


Great info. I feel like as more folks start seeing the weakness in the westside real estate market, areas like "north of Montana" are viewed by the bulls as sanctuaries. North of Montana properties have been so hot in the recent past that it seems like the area is invincible. It will weather the storm and trees will grow to the sky, they say.

Not too long ago, it was said that all of Santa Monica would hold up. I, you, and others have shown that weakness is already showing in many SM areas. I have shown a few examples on my blog of recently foreclosed condos. Not in the most desirable areas of SM and not single family homes...but it was still SM.

It seems only natural that as the cycle continues, the weakness will get worse in the less desirable areas while also spreading across the board. First it was weakness spreading from the "areas out east", while now it seems likely to be spreading from "less desirable SM properties". If we can see sustained, highly visible declines in the north of Montana area, there will be no more left to prove.

The guy who was running the Pacific Beach bubble blog shut down his site because he said that it was now so obvious that real estate in the area was dead that there was no reason to keep going. Remember, San Diego led the cycle down so I think you can see what I'm getting at here. Keep up the great work.

Pop said...

Some of those properties on 14th must be getting close to setting the record for the most open houses. Two of them were open today, for what must be the 20th time each.

Lionel said...

warchest, you're dead on in your analysis. few months back, I was chatting with a friend about how insane it is to take out an I/O, particularly as the market is turning. Another friend happened to be standing nearby and she blurted out: what's wrong with an I/O? I know she recently purchased a house in SM canyon. Blew my mind that someone would use interest only to buy into the canyon. Sounded potentially very dangerous.

Anonymous said...

KEEP........ GOING, GOING ....GONE !
422 22nd St Santa Monica CA 90402
4 beds, 4.0 baths, 4,682 sq ft;
Sale History
05/06/2003: $2,125,000
09/06/1996: $1,275,000

715 17th St Santa Monica CA 90402
3 beds, 3.0 baths, 2,517 sq ft;
Sale History
09/05/2001: $1,750,000
10/31/1996: $890,000

251 24th St Santa Monica CA 90402
6 beds, 6.0 baths, 4,733 sq ft;
Sale History
12/20/2006: $4,600,000
10/05/1998: $1,750,000
02/16/1995: $1,460,000

Blondie said...

Westside: This is fantastic data! You are right to keep tabs on NOMO as this thing rides out- I buy the perfect commodity argument since the lots are mostly normalized and this has been THE trendy area.

BTW, I've been checking the Westside rentals house listings and there are quite a few in NOMO- kind of joke that these things are mostly for rent at essentially the mortgage rate. There are even some tear-downs for rent on the mls and westside rentals. That would be another data point: rental listings should expand as people attempt to rent instead of bailing on the property that they won't sell in a declining market. I wonder if the Westside guys wouldn't comment on home rental inventory in Santa Monica?

Anonymous said...

SM Sustainable rents :-)

Archstone Santa Monica 425 Broadway Santa Monica, CA 90401 1 Bedroom $2,245-$2,345

$4,200.00- Santa Monica Condo - SPANISH STYLE CONDO, NORTH OF WILSHIRE Unfurnished Condo, 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 Bath

$6,600.00 -Santa Monica Apartment - CONDO, EXCELLENT AREA, WALK TO BEACH!! Furnished or unfurnished Apartment, 1 bedroom, 1 Bath,

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