Monday, September 10, 2007

August sales plunge

JBR asked, "'The volume of sales in santa monica is up roughly 50% from the year-ago quarter, according to actual real estate/assessor/title and deed reports.' Are they correct, or can this be factually refuted?"

Remember how last month (July numbers) I used Melissa Data numbers for Santa Monica zip codes 90402 and 90405, and Mar Vista 90066, to create a Westside composite of # Sales and Weighted Average Price?

Until DataQuick's numbers come out for August, I've updated these three zip codes of home sales from Melissa Data on the graph above. Total number sold plunged in half, from 67 in August 2006 to 34 this August, led by north-of-Montana 90402, 6 falling to 2.

On the assertion about "the quarter", adding Santa Monica 90402 and 90405 I find 2Q fell from 108 in 2006 to 89 in 2007, and the first two months of 3Q flat at 43. No idea where up 50% came from!

12 comments:

lap2 said...

Here is the data for the entire Santa Monica (MLS area 14)for the same period 6/1 through 8/31 in '06 and '07 of actual CLOSED escrows:

'06 -- SF 60; CC 143; TOTAL 203
'07 -- SF 73; CC 108; TOTAL 181

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks!

RiskAverseForTheMoment said...

June and July would not reflect the evaporation of rationally priced credit n August, or the increased risk premium for Jumbos.

Credit was the fuel to fire price increases. With the fuel spent, the fire dies

Not a realtwhore said...

This is from yesterday:

August Home Sales Take a Major Plunge



The expanding mortgage crisis and credit crunch slammed the Los Angeles housing market in August, with home sales plunging 50 percent from the same month last year and 25 percent from July.

Sales of new and existing homes in Los Angeles County slid to 4,107 units in August, just under half the 8,246 units that sold in August 2006 and well below July’s 5,458 units, according to figures compiled for the Business Journal by Melville, N.Y.-based HomeData Corp.

Anonymous said...

I was the one quoted from the other blog. First, I am not bullish or bearish as the person claims, but simply reporting data. I made no future predictions about the housing market.

My data showed :
Number of sales in santa monica for 1-4 bd room houses and condos :

May-July 06 : 130
May-July 07 : 194
Gain +49.2%

That would be zip codes 90401-90405.

Is that a perfect statistic? Who knows. A more accurate one would be appreciated.

Westside Bubble said...

For 90402 and 90405, May-July, Melissa Data shows 99 in 2006 and 89 in 2007. LAP2 may have more for us?

lap2 said...

In the last 30 days, starting 8/12/07, in the entire SM, based on actual facts from the MLS, 59 (19 SF; 40 CC) listings entered escrow of which 3 (1 SF; 2 CC) have already closed, 23 (8 SF; 15 CC) are still pending, 25 (10 SF; 15 CC) are still looking for a backup and 8 (2 SF; 6 CC) are active again.

Closed escrows during the month of August (8/1 - 8/30):

'06 - 19 SF; 44 CC
'07 - 18 SF; 37 CC

Looks like very active market and that is during the mortgage turmoil and these are hard facts and not an estimates nor gestimates.

Market in SM has shifted, however, the inventoy is not exploding and demand is still there.

RE market is very local and one can get a very wrong idea just by looking at the LA county numbers.

lap2 said...

Forgot to mention, that we will not see the real affect of the mortgage debacle until the escrows that were opened during that period start closing or falling out - end of Sept., midle to end of Oct.

lap2 said...

"I was the one quoted from the other blog."

Anon, your numbers are way off. Here are the real numbers:

1-4 bedrooms of SF & CC in SM 5/1 through 7/31, closed sales

'06 - 60 SF; 139 CC (199 Total)
'07 - 70 SF; 126 CC (196 Total)

Where is the "Gain of 49.2%"?

This is the info from the MLS and every realtor has access to it.

Baton Rouge Commercial Real Estate said...

looks like the decline was going way down. How does the market look now?

Baton Rouge Real Estate said...

Got some Baton Rouge love in the Blog that crazy!!!!!

How are thing looking now????

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