Friday, September 7, 2007

Weekly inventory update

9/7 - Westside inventory is up for the week in all three areas.

For some very sobering context be sure to see Dr. Housing Bubble's History repeating in Florida and Lessons from the Roaring 20s. and Charles Hugh Smith's The Big One Just Hit.

(I'm starting a new format of these, with new short weekly posts rather than updating the long one each week. See notes and the last monthly update.)

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

_________ _______________ _______________ ___________


1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
4/21/06 33,054 35
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 53 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 52 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 68 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/ 7/07 61 9 75 90 20 2 74 88 91 3 85
9/14/07

4 comments:

Dan said...

Thanks Westside.

The very small New Listings means that a lot of people who were thinking of upgrading probably have stopped. This may impact the high-end more than I thought.

(Or are new listings always slow over labor day wkd? We'll see next week...)

I like the new format.

JBR said...

Little help... Someone (bullish) on another blog threw this out...

Looking at 300 sales between the year-ago quarter, in Santa Monica, the average price per square foot is +5.2% from $763 to $768. The greatest increase has been holders of 3-bedroom homes and condos, which moved from $701 to $912/sq ft, or 18.1% gain since 2006.

The volume of sales in santa monica is up roughly 50% from the year-ago quarter, according to actual real estate/assessor/title and deed reports.


Are they correct, or can this be factually refuted? TIA

Anonymous said...

Quarterly/ monthly price won't reflect actual trend, but per sq ft price increase seems correct. (LA Times Real Estate Sundays) by zip-code. (material & labor cost increased, not always consistent with RE profit).The price differences between tear-down houses and condo are getting closer.

WarChestSM said...

jbr,

I think that one HUGE reason why $/sq ft metrics would have seen a rise in this case is due to the fact that so many places are either new construction, remodeled, or "upgraded". Higher quality construction and new materials means that $/sq ft goes up, but the people fixing places up could actually be selling for losses or coming close to breaking even as the market continues to weaken.

It is for this reason that looking at one such metric alone could paint a somewhat false picture. Also note that prices didn't really peak a year ago for all properties. 3 bedroom units are usually more desirable and should be the last to show stress, while also being good candidates for fixing up/remodeling to sell for a nice profit.

At the risk of whoring myself out completely and going for a shameless plug, I spent last week looking at high end homes in 90402 that are showing signs of distress on my blog. I have also shown examples of short sales, foreclosures and comp killers. Maybe this person who is so bullish would like to see real time examples of distress?

It really feels like right now is a tipping point and if you simply cruise through the listings on the MLS you will see all the reductions and the foreclosures/short sales starting to sprout. I think we are all extremely bullish on SM real estate for the long term, but prices have gone up way too high and seem likely to revert towards the mean. Looking at year over year data is backward looking and will be subject to the problem of stale data...the mortgage market problems have taken place very recently and have not had time to really effect the market...Yet