Friday, August 31, 2007

Weekly Inventory Update

8/31 - Inventory is slightly down for the week, up for the month, and the listings are getting older (DOM increasing). More price reductions. Let's see how listings and sales do when the fall season begins after Labor Day.

8/24 - These stats have needed a graph; here is one, showing my Santa Monica (under $3M) and Palms-Mar Vista inventory on the right axis and OC Renter's LA County inventory on the left. LA is up over last year; SM is down.

Big jump in listings, 10%+/- for the week! SM is up 6 from 9 new listings; PP up 1; and MV up 11 from 13 new listings.

8/17 - Santa Monica and Palisades are pretty flat; Mar Vista is down despite new listings.

8/10 - Santa Monica is down 2, Palisades down 5, Mar Vista up 5.

See Calculated Risk for explanation of what the Federal Reserve did the last three days to add liquidity. Essentially the Fed loaned a lot of money to banks short term, with Mortage-Backed Securities as collateral. The Fed did not buy those securities.

8/3 - Westside inventory is up 2.6% from the end of July. I also seem to be seeing more price reductions and failed escrows (financing failed?) in Santa Monica, Palisades, and Mar Vista.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM

_________ _______________ _______________ ___________


1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
4/21/06 33,054 35
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 53 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 52 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 68 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/10/07 54,802 51 8 67 90 18 3 74 87 88 13 69
8/17/07 52 11 67 97 18 5 77 78 81 21 73
8/24/07 56,118 58 20 72 94 19 7 77 69 92 34 73
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 39 79
9/ 7/07

All Westside (updated 1st Fri. of mo.)

                   2/9  3/1  4/6  5/4  6/1 6/30 8/03 8/31
Bel Air-Holmby Hls. 86 86 92 100 103 99 86 99
Beverly Center-M.M. 64 57 48 53 54 65 64 67
Beverly Hills 67 70 56 46 53 49 59 61
B.H. Post Office 94 91 92 88 93 95 92 94
Beverlywood Vic. 35 36 31 39 38 41 42 46
Brentwood 67 71 73 75 72 68 86 77
Cheviot H.-R.Pk.'8' 22 20 19 22 23 22 26 20
Culver City 35 25 20 28 33 36 41 48
Malibu 178 181 192 199 206 220 224 216
Malibu Beach 42 44 51 52 56 58 54 45
Marina Del Rey 20 20 20 27 29 28 26 27
Pacific Palisades 64 68 73 82 87 92 78 69
Palms-Mar Vista 62 53 52 68 77 73 84 90
Playa Del Rey 7 8 17 20 21 20 21 24
Playa Vista 3 2 3 1 3 5 4 9
Santa Monica 50 50 49 53 61 57 68 72
Sunset Stp.-Hwd.H. 155 178 159 166 180 168 187 184
Topanga 39 41 36 43 45 54 49 54
Venice 64 64 57 68 70 72 69 68
West Hollywood Vic. 23 32 25 36 42 41 40 36
West L.A. 19 21 25 24 25 34 31 36
Westchester 53 46 47 45 53 52 62 72
Westwood-Cent.City 33 44 37 42 33 34 29 37
____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____
Total 1282 1308 1274 1377 1457 1483 1522 1551
Month-month incr. 2% -3% 8% 6% 2% 3% 2%

Notes

LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow, down?

Mortgages have been tightening up even at the high end for the past few weeks. I'd think inventory would be going up.

Anonymous said...

Remember most buyers are also sellers. Not many new buyers because of tight lending standards. Home values will drop when those who have to sell because of either financial distress, death, loss of job etc. Inventory will probably go up more when banks finally get there REO properties listed. My former co-workers at a very large California lender say they have to find the loan first which is taking longer than normal. Apparantly, these are the loans which were sold in the market as MBOs and CDOs and further sold in "tranches".

My co-workers say this will take years for this mess to get corrected.

FSD said...

I think you may start to see the effects of the recent seizing of the mortgage market here in the next 1-2 months. The traditional slow season, coupled with the mortgage mess will start to make things interesting here.

Westside Bubble said...

I agree, Anons and FSD. It already feels things have slowed down.

Anonymous said...

Do me a favor, watch 10661 CRANKS RD, Culver City, CA 90230

$2,495,000 asking price- delusional or distressed?

Mikey said...

The B of A / Countrywide news should have sent shockwaves. Countrywide is borrowing from B of A at 7.25%.

Is your mortgage that high?

The trap has closed.

Mr.Mortgage said...

In the spirirt of democracy and a good saturday round table discussion, what is your view on the proposed bailout plans that the presidential candidates have been discussing?
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Are people in Santa Monica less likely to put their home up for sale because they don't have anywhere to move up to?

Also, would they be less likely to be affected by ARMs resting or losing jobs?

If so, they could be more stubborn about lowering price or just keep their home off the market because they would rather keep it than take a loss.

Anonymous said...

"Are people in Santa Monica less likely to put their home up for sale because they don't have anywhere to move up to?"

Ever heard of Malibu, Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Bel Aire, or Beverly Hills?

Anonymous said...

Yes, but Santa Monica is not a starter home city. I don't think there is as much of a reason to move up then a lot of other cities.

Anonymous said...

"Yes, but Santa Monica is not a starter home city."

It was five years ago, and it will be again.

lap2 said...

Great link in NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/08/25/business/20070826_HOUSING_GRAPHIC.html#

Anonymous said...

Aforementioned $2.5mm house in Culver City is listed as 'sale pending.' Must be one hell of a view...

Anonymous said...

10661 Cranks - you get alot for the money. Move that to SM (with current views) and you got a $15MM estate.

Here is the description from the MLS: "Set on just under an acre on a private promontory behind gates sits a magical private oasis with breathtaking jetliner views from downtown to the ocean. A Completely private setting, with mature trees, plants, and landscaping, your own private walking trails, 10,000+ sq.ft of grassy yard area, a truly incredible experience to be so close to the city in your own private retreat setting. The house boasts 3 bedrooms+ 2.5 baths in over 3,100 sq. ft. The master is set on a separate floor with views."

Mr.Mortgage said...

Senators and Bankers Beg for Jumbo Loan Changes
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com/

anon1 said...

Hey Westside,

Thanks for the update. Culd you do these as separate posts rather than updates? My RSS reader acts weird on updates.

Also, since the inventory dropped this week (slightly), is there a way you could show how many sold vs how many were withdrawn? I don't know enough about the data, but there's a huge difference with people who are waiting to sell but giving up vs actually sold...

Westside Bubble said...

Thanks for the feedback, Anon1. I can do that, with small weekly postings and a full end-of-month version.

is there a way you could show how many sold vs how many were withdrawn?

The agents' version of MLS shows that; unfortunately, the public version that I use doesn't. "Looking for Backup" status is an indicator of sale vs. withdrawal, but not all sales use it. Then you can wait to see if a sale was finally recorded, a few months later.

If any agents reading this would like to contribute withdrawn listings....

Mr.Mortgage said...

"When should I buy a home?" The quick answer.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com