Inventory charts

SM listings, sales, withdrawn / expired

Monthly inventory update

11/28 - Inventory is pretty flat for the month in Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades - despite a number of withdrawn listings - in contrast to its drop-off in past Novembers. Mar Vista has declined for the month and compared with 2007. Total Westside is up for the month, especially from high-priced areas like Beverly Hills, Malibu, and Hollywood Hills. Graphs will come soon.

11/21 - Inventory in all three areas (SM, PP, MV) is pretty flat from last week. Beneath the placid surface were more price reductions, a number of withdrawn listings, and a few failed escrows back on the market. I'll post some details next week.

Remember 2502 Marguerita, asking $5,495K? It closed really fast on 11/20 for an even $5,000K.

11/14 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up a little, while Mar Vista is down slightly.

The reduced-50% house at 16463 Akron in PP (3/2, $1,595K) was withdrawn after over 480 days on market. Our sandwiched-between-big-buildings 3766 Sawtelle in Mar Vista (3/2 $550K) was withdrawn, and the similar 3935 Inglewood (2/1, $555K) expired. Lots more in Santa Monica will be in separate posts.

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/ 7/08         64   6  89 130  54   2 159 120  80   2 117
11/14/08         66   9  93 130  56   4 158 113  78   5 121
11/21/08         66  11  93 137  56   5 156 120  78   8 131
11/28/08 45,216  64  12  91 141  54   7 151 124  73   9 130
12/ 5/08          

All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30     8/1    10/3   11/28
                2/29     5/2    6/27    8/29   10/31 
Bel Air-H.Hls.85  82  95 100 108 110 115 113 115 113 107
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71  67  75  79  80  78  80  72  62  67  66
Beverly Hills 65  64  66  78  84  79  90  90  94  98 113
B.H. P.O.     78  80  92  95 101 113 118 121 125 123 117
B'wood Vic.   50  56  53  57  67  58  53  59  55  55  57
Brentwood     77  86  96 104 108 116 115 109 124 140 142
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21  19  20  24  25  31  34  33  38  40  41
Culver City   42  48  50  57  59  58  49  58  61  63  62
Malibu       185 200 213 242 261 266 265 258 240 244 260
Malibu Beach  38  49  57  60  50  49  59  61  59  52  59
Marina Del Rey26  36  25  25  26  27  32  33  33  35  42
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120 108 128 159 151
Palms-M.Vista 89  88  82  90  92  96  99  91  84  83  73
Playa Del Rey 22  19  15  15  23  24  28  29  26  25  26
Playa Vista    5   4   6   5   5   9   9   7   7   8   8
Santa Monica  67  68  81  84  79  98  89  79  82  90  91
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278 256 292 291 306
Topanga       49  44  63  69  66  62  60  61  62  69  88
Venice        72  72  74  83  85  77  89  79  83  96 100
W.H'wood Vic. 48  51  48  43  46  46  55  62  64  61  55
West L.A.     20  18  25  25  25  26  33  27  29  25  23
Westchester   72  54  79  86  91  88  82  76  78  77  70
W'wood-C.City 37  36  42  49  53  61  67  60  65  71  71
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2008 Total  1509    1694    1917    2019    2006    2128
                1524    1846    1974    1942    2085
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

Tipped south of Washington

We have a split decision on the two south of Washington listings we reviewed on 10/18/08 in the single-family neighborhood bounded by California, Washington, 22nd, and 25th, that both closed yesterday.

First, the ($100K-reduced) $1,299K low-end 3 bed / 1.75 bath 1030 Chelsea (photo above), sold for $1,200K. This is way below 2007 local comps 1020 Chelsea, $1,478K, and 1024 23rd, $1,445K, a rollback to 2004 pricing.

On the other hand, 2/2 2312 California (photo below), asking $1,395K (after a quick $100K price cut), sold for $1,375K, only slightly below its previous sale 7/12/06 for $1,392K. Although it did claim $100K of fix-up, so with selling costs it's a significant loss for the seller.

Both make the recent 3/2 listing at 2507 California for $1,599K look absurd, especially as it's on the block next to noisy 26th Street.

See the comps back to 2004 at the 10/18/08 post.

North of Montana index

Here's an update on my low-end north-of-Montana index to go with the latest S&P/Case-Shiller, showing low-end sales on 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid, scaled to equal the Case-Shiller index in 1990 (where 100 = $750K).

Because there has been only one such sale in over a year, I've shown similarly low-end but not on those four streets sales (three red dots above, two gray listings below), including yesterday's not-tear-down 460 Lincoln for $1,900K.

If lot value on 9th-10th-12th-Euclid is now around $1.7M (above the non-MLS 370 22nd, but below 460 Lincoln), that would put it back to early-mid 2005, per my list since 2000 below. If you think lot value is down to $1.6M (I'm not convinced yet), that's actually mid-2004 - not far off S&P/Case-Shiller for LA being back to early 2004. So even in 90402 the price momentum is now down.

1/00 $750K 518 10th
5/01 $995K 550 Euclid
6/02 $1,000K 544 Euclid
11/02 $1,100K 402 10th
5/03 $1,375K 229 12th
6/03 $1,397K 602 10th
7/03 $1,401K 627 Euclid
9/04 $1,610K 633 10th
12/05 $1,795K 717 Euclid
3/06 $1,976K 502 Euclid
6/07 $2,050K 307 Euclid
6/07 $2,160K 433 12th
8/08 $2,079K 517 Euclid
10/08 $1,600K 370 22nd
11/08 $1,900K 460 Lincoln

The full list since 1981 is in the first comment of this 9/18/07 post.

September S&P/Case-Shiller

Today's September 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continued down, now 32.6% from its peak in September 2006, back to early 2004 levels.

By month that's 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 23.4% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $366,096, $366,096 - $522,784, and Over $522,784; updated for September). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 43.8%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down another 1.7% to 22.7% from its June 2006 peak.

Breaking news: 460 Lincoln $1.9M

Another data point, north of Montana and not a tear-down for $1.9M: Originally listed 4/14/08 for $2,395K, withdrawn in June, relisted 8/20/08 for $2,195K, this 3 bed / 3 bath house at 460 Lincoln Blvd. just closed for $1,900K (13% below last asking).

A little quirky but not a tear-down, this large 2,471 SF house has been expanded across most of its back yard. Lincoln is busier than some streets, but not like 7th. Its description is:

"Wonderfully updated home in quiet location north of Montana. 3 bedrooms, 3 baths plus fam room. Large bright open “hang out” cook’s kitchen with stainless appliances and granite counters. Huge master suite, 2 nice fireplaces, beautiful hardwood floors, skylights, great light, French doors, gated and fenced. Oversized 2 car garage with workshop area. ..."

Also see SM Distress Monitor on 9/22.

Weekly inventory update

11/21 - Inventory in all three areas (SM, PP, MV) is pretty flat from last week. Beneath the placid surface were more price reductions, a number of withdrawn listings, and a few failed escrows back on the market. I'll post some details next week.

Remember 2502 Marguerita, asking $5,495K? It closed really fast on 11/20 for an even $5,000K.

11/14 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up a little, while Mar Vista is down slightly.

The reduced-50% house at 16463 Akron in PP (3/2, $1,595K) was withdrawn after over 480 days on market. Our sandwiched-between-big-buildings 3766 Sawtelle in Mar Vista (3/2 $550K) was withdrawn, and the similar 3935 Inglewood (2/1, $555K) expired. Lots more in Santa Monica will be in separate posts.

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/ 7/08         64   6  89 130  54   2 159 120  80   2 117
11/14/08         66   9  93 130  56   4 158 113  78   5 121
11/21/08         66  11  93 137  56   5 156 120  78   8 131
11/28/08          

Bigger events

I was going to recap the latest in low-end Sunset Park, but bigger events seem rather more important. Hope you all saw this comparison of this stock market crash to others on Calculated Risk, from dshort.com (see originals for full chart). The S&P 500's over-50% fall from its peak might even impact buyers in 90402, no?

Karl Denninger repeated, but worth copying here,

The market and economy will not stop falling apart until:

1. Paulson is fired and his policies cease.
2. We have transparency in balance sheets - for every firm on the exchange. No exceptions. All Level 3 asset mark models and assets identified - period.
3. Bernanke withdraws all his alphabet soup programs or is removed from office and his successor does, and the "crowding out" in the credit markets ceases.

It's that simple, and all three must happen before we will see any sort of sustainable bottom put in. ...

The credit market was right and those who said it couldn't happen were wrong.

Yet it was another beautiful Santa Monica day! I'm optimistic that, although it will take time, out of this wreckage real estate prices will return to reality, and the new administration's focus on things of substance like investment in a sustainable energy policy will help rebuild the economy.

October DataQuick

More of the same in today's October DataQuick numbers. Median prices are now down 35.5% for Los Angeles County from its peak a year ago August. Volumes rose 9% from August and a huge 56% from October 2007 - but are still well below the previous three Octobers. (September DataQuick post)

This puts Los Angeles County prices back to February 2004, Orange County to June 2003, Ventura County to April 2003, and San Diego all the way to June 2002 (LA unchanged, others one month earlier than last month).

New low-end north of Montana

Yet more north of Montana, here are two new listings and a recent sale to update our 10/31/08 low-end north of Montana sales.

Just listed 11/12 is this 3 bed / 2 bath, 1,733 SF house at 320 9th Street, on a 50 foot lot (7,500 SF), asking $2,095K, described as:

"BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY ENGLISH COTTAGE CURB APPEAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS HOME IN A GREAT NORTH OF MONTANA LOCATION. ... LARGE FORMAL DINING ROOM, KITCHEN W/EATING AREA AND ENCLOSED PATIO. AMENITIES INCLUDE A NICE YARD AND LARGE ROOMS. THE HOME NEEDS SOME TLC, REMODEL OR BUILD NEW."

This is really cute and pretty big, I'd think worth more than lot value. Redo the kitchen and bathrooms and you'd likely have a nicely-finished smaller house (I haven't been inside). I think I recall its brick facade was repaired after the 1994 earthquake.

Second is this 3 bed / 2.5 bath, 2,556 SF house at 209 25th Street, on a 60 foot lot (8,700 SF), asking $2,050K, described as:

"This is a one story ranch style with 3 bedroom, 2 ½ bathrooms and a large great room. There is a detached 2 car garage that is accessed from San Vicente Blvd. The property is being sold in as –is condition without any warranties or guarantees. Easy to show."

This seems similar in size and San Vicente Blvd. noise proximity to the 2 bed / 2.5 bath house 219 23rd Street, 7,975 SF lot, sold 1/28/08 for $1,880K, which we featured 2/19/08.

Finally, this 3 bed / 1.75 bath, 1,644 SF house at 416 21st Place on a 60 foot lot (9,000 SF) closed 10/31/08 for $2,185K, 8% off its 9/4/08 listing price of $2,375K.

"Wonderful Traditional home in Gillette's Regent Square. Live in, remodel or rebuild. 3BD, 1.75BA + converted garage to office with bath & FP. Beautiful hardwood floors thruout. High ceilings & FP in LR, charming breakfast room off kitchen, A/C, unique "gumwood" doors & windows, original tiles in bath. Attic w/darkroom, sink & lots of storage. Nice backyard w/mature trees. Do not miss! ..."

This is the lowest Gillette sales price since early 2006, except Montana-close 710 19th (closed 7/19/08 for $2,086K), in the 9/7/08 Gillette Regents Square low-end sales history.

Success and failure north of Montana

Here are tales of two spec builders north of Montana, which some of you can never get enough of....

One may have sold the highest-priced new house on a regular lot (60-foot, 8,700 SF) east of 7th Street. The 5 bed / 6 bath house at 2502 Marguerita (above) was listed 10/1/08 for $5,625M, beating our last record of $5,200K, and entered escrow 11/4. Last sale was 10/23/03 for $1,695K, according to Zillow. It's described as:

"Beautiful, warm & spacious super cool contemporary in coveted No of Montana location. Almost 7000 sqft feet of brand new, quality construction w/top of the line finishes. The main level of the home features a large open floor plan, a study and sleek eat-in kitchen. Upstairs is home to 4 generous bedrooms inc. grand master w/spa bath, & lower level is an entertainer's dream: screening room, gym, wine cellar, office. The outdoor areas offer dining patios, nice grass yard, and a great rooftop deck."

The other appears to be bailing, attempting to sell the vacant lot-and-a-half (11,250 SF) at 444 10th Street, with Richard Ramirez (architect of high-end Spanish houses) plans (but apparently not permits) for $3,130K. SM Distress Monitor covered this today. Wonder if construction financing dried up?

Listed 12/21/06 for $2,700K, I recorded it selling 6/6/07 for $2,750K. Above is a "time warp" interior photo of the two-story old bungalow that has since been demolished (I was hoping to find a photo of the front). But its most recent sale appears to be 8/15/07 for $2,950K. Did the first buyer resell it?

Added (thanks, Frank!!): Here's the MLS photo of the old house, and confirmation of its 6/7/07 sale for $2,750K.

Weekly inventory update

11/14 - Santa Monica and Pacific Palisades are up a little, while Mar Vista is down slightly.

The reduced-50% house at 16463 Akron in PP (3/2, $1,595K) was withdrawn after over 480 days on market. Our sandwiched-between-big-buildings 3766 Sawtelle in Mar Vista (3/2 $550K) was withdrawn, and the similar 3935 Inglewood (2/1, $555K) expired. Lots more in Santa Monica will be in separate posts.

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/ 7/08         64   6  89 130  54   2 159 120  80   2 117
11/14/08         66   9  93 130  56   4 158 113  78   5 121
11/21/08 

SM listings, sales, withdrawn / expired

Looky-loo Mike's comment inspired me to post the other half of these graphs for October. Inventory grows from new listings, and shrinks from sales and listings withdrawn / expired. Here are those for Santa Monica, divided into <$3M and >$3M. Observations:

* Both new listings and sales <$3M were unusually low some months this year;
* Withdrawn and Expired listings exceeded Sold listings in October.

Inventory charts

On the subject of "zzzzzzzzzzzz.... inventory.... zzzzzzz.... graphs.........." (!), here's an inventory followup through October from last month's Santa Monica <$3M and >$3M and other Westside charts. October is typically the peak inventory month before it falls through year-end.

As you can see, Pacific Palisades and the total Westside are at record inventory levels for the last two years. Conversely, Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista peaked June-July this year and although still high are below October peaks of the past year or two.

Weekly inventory update

11/7 - Pretty flat inventory for the week, with Mar Vista down slightly, including more expired and withdrawn listings.

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/ 7/08         64   6  89 130  54   2 159 120  80   2 117
11/14/08 

Votes by neighborhood

One more post on the election, but tied to Westside real estate. Suppose you'd like to know the political leanings of a neighborhood before you buy a house there. How would you find that out?

This week's election gives the data. The County Registrar-Recorder's Statement of Votes Cast - Precinct Bulletins give one total page for each precinct, quite a fine level of detail. (Part 2 includes the City of Los Angeles; Part 1 includes smaller cities including Santa Monica).

How do you find precinct numbers? Precinct Maps by District provides a search for detailed precinct maps. You could select District Type = AREA DESCRIPTIONS and District = SANTA MONICA-VENICE, for example, then download the individual map PDFs. If you do, I've made it easier with the map above, showing the map numbers in our part of the Westside.

Here are some sample precincts:

Pacific Palisades
900 1391 (west of Temescal, south of Sunset) - 71% Obama
900 5919 (Huntington Palisades, west of Chautaqua) - 59% Obama

Santa Monica
625 0128 (north of Marguerita, 7th to 14th) - 78% Obama
625 0031 (north of Wilshire, south of Washington, 22nd to 26th) - 79% Obama
625 0083 (Sunset Park, Ocean Park to Ashland, 11th to 18th) - 83% Obama

Mar Vista
900 1562 (MV Hill, east of Centinela, west of Inglewood, north of Palms) - 74% Obama
900 1560 (west of Centinela, east of Cabrillo, north of Palms) - 69% Obama

Election wrap-up

Bringing the election results back to the housing bubble, three post-election quotes today are worth repeating:

Stocks' fall deepens as investors look beyond Obama's historic win to the dismal state of the economy. - MarketWatch.com

Hope for change tempered by the mess before us.

They want to see us raise the white flag and concede that our principles of freedom, responsibility, and limited government no longer speak to the hopes and dreams of American families. - John Boehner, House Republican leader

Uh, it was you guys that conceded "responsibility" and "limited government" in the credit bubble, housing bubble, and massive bailouts.

If President Elect-Obama were the incoming CEO of a corporation, he would now be preparing for the first act of his tenure: A massive write-off of the mountains of rotted junk buried on the company's balance sheet and an announcement that recovery will take a long, long time. ...

In short, Obama needs to acknowledge reality, erring on the side of overstating the problems and challenges, and he needs to prepare the country for several tough years. Because if he doesn't, within six months of his taking office, the country will have forgotten all about the prior administration and will instead be blaming everything on him. - Henry Blodget

Hope he hears that.

Election tomorrow

On the ballot tomorrow, all of us outraged at government bailouts should beware of Proposition 10. In the guise of being for the environment it is really a huge $10 billion taxpayer subsidy for T. Boone Pickens' natural gas fueling company. More at No on Proposition 10.

On the positive side, all of us interested in better transit should be interested in Measure R, which would fund the Expo Line to Santa Monica, Wilshire subway to Westwood, a rail line from Westwood to the Valley, and other important projects across Los Angeles County (More on Measure R).

That's all I'm saying about the elections. Which will finally be over in only one more day.

Monthly inventory update

10/31 - Inventory is growing the most in some of the high-priced areas. The Westside total is up 3.9% (+79) for the month, and 20% from October 2007, mainly from jumps in Pacific Palisades (+29), Brentwood (+16), and Venice (+13).

Total Santa Monica is up 10% for the month and 11% from October 2007. Total Pacific Palisades is up a huge 24% for the month and 50% from October 2007. Palms-Mar Vista is down a slight 1% for the month, and 15% from October 2007.

Within Pacific Palisades the under-$2M inventory grew more (34% m-m, 90% y-y), while it was over-$3M in Santa Monica that grew more (18% m-m, 34% y-y). And upper-end Mar Vista Hill is pretty stuck.

10/24 - SM <$3M is down slightly, but up overall; PP is up sharply; MV is down a hair. Here's activity in indicator houses.

Two south of Washington we've been following are now in escrow; wonder at what price?
1030 Chelsea, 3 bed / 1.75 bath, LP=$1,299K (-7% from OLP), LD=7/31/08
2312 California, 2/2, $1,395K (-7%), 9/29/08

Two in Sunset Park closed:
1645 Ashland, 2/1, $995K, 7/28/08, SD=10/23, SP=$975K (-2% from LP)
2424 Cloverfield, 3/2, $1,099K (-12%), 3/21/08, 10/9/08, $1,055K (-4%)

While three others were withdrawn:
3027 11th, 2/1.75, $799K (-15%), 8/7/08
2114 Ashland, 2/1, $1,079K (-20%), 5/19/08
1732 Bryn Mawr, 4/3, $1,349K (-10%), 6/5/08

10/17 - SM, PP, and MV inventory are all up for the week. A few escrows failed this week in Mar Vista, going back on the market. Tough to get financing?

Yes, there seems more drama in the financial markets and election this week than in Westside real estate. Watch for DataQuick next week.

10/10 - Not a lot of change in inventory this week. SM <$3M and PP <$2M are a little up (the latter at record levels); MV is slightly down. Some previously withdrawn / expired listings are back (not counted here in "New").

      LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
               <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06 27,732
 2/28/06 29,420
 3/31/06 31,819
 5/ 1/06 34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06 37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06 42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06 45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06 46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06 47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06 45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06 43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07 35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07 36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07 41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07 42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07 45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07 52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07 52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07 54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07 57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07 58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07 58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07 59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07 53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
-------- ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08 53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08 53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08 53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08 54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/30/08 53,216  56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/27/08 53,058  74  28  98 131  30   6 129 107  96  26  95
 8/ 2/08 51,906  66  14  89 125  34   8 120 136  99  35 101
 8/29/08 50,124  62   9  79 122  29   5 108 156  91  25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113  58  14  82 145  41  15 128 132  84  24 109
10/10/08         62   7  83 144  42   2 126 137  83   9 107
10/17/08         66  12  87 139  44   5 134 144  86  13 101
10/24/08         64  17  89 140  49  12 140 134  85  16 105
10/31/08 47,017  64  22  90 131  55  18 159 126  83  21 103
11/ 7/08

All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30     8/1    10/3
                2/29     5/2    6/27    8/29   10/31 
Bel Air-H.Hls.85  82  95 100 108 110 115 113 115 113
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71  67  75  79  80  78  80  72  62  67
Beverly Hills 65  64  66  78  84  79  90  90  94  98
B.H. P.O.     78  80  92  95 101 113 118 121 125 123
B'wood Vic.   50  56  53  57  67  58  53  59  55  55
Brentwood     77  86  96 104 108 116 115 109 124 140
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21  19  20  24  25  31  34  33  38  40
Culver City   42  48  50  57  59  58  49  58  61  63
Malibu       185 200 213 242 261 266 265 258 240 244
Malibu Beach  38  49  57  60  50  49  59  61  59  52
Marina Del Rey26  36  25  25  26  27  32  33  33  35
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142 129 120 108 128 159
Palms-M.Vista 89  88  82  90  92  96  99  91  84  83
Playa Del Rey 22  19  15  15  23  24  28  29  26  25
Playa Vista    5   4   6   5   5   9   9   7   7   8
Santa Monica  67  68  81  84  79  98  89  79  82  90
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241 273 278 256 292 291
Topanga       49  44  63  69  66  62  60  61  62  69
Venice        72  72  74  83  85  77  89  79  83  96
W.H'wood Vic. 48  51  48  43  46  46  55  62  64  61
West L.A.     20  18  25  25  25  26  33  27  29  25
Westchester   72  54  79  86  91  88  82  76  78  77
W'wood-C.City 37  36  42  49  53  61  67  60  65  71
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2008 Total  1509    1694    1917    2019    2006
                1524    1846    1974    1942    2085
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.