Fran Pavley for State Senate

This isn't a political blog (except frequently opposing bailouts), but for election day next Tuesday I'm making an exception. (Hey, it's my blog!) You did know there's an election, right?

To me Fran Pavley has been one of the best environmental legislators ever. Termed out in the Assembly two years ago, she's running in the Democratic primary for (also termed-out) Sheila Kuehl's 23rd district State Senate seat.

I'm really annoyed by the huge stack of mailers from her opponent Lloyd Levine. To me he's a carpetbagger from a Valley Assembly district not even within this Senate district, and I wonder who's paying for it all, especially the crass hit piece claiming Pavley is funded by Wal-Mart.

Election night update, 12:15 a.m.: With half the vote counted (227/449 precincts), Fran is winning with a landslide 66.7% of the vote!

Monthly inventory update

5/30 - Santa Monica <$3M is down for the week and month, but up for >$2M. Pacific Palisades <$2M is similarly down for the week and month, but up for >$2M to another record total. Palms/Mar Vista is up for the week (lot of new listings) and month. The Westside total is up 3.8% for the month and up 32% over May 2007 (note I added 2007 monthly totals at the bottom of the table below).

5/23 - SM and PP <$2M are down 5%, but PP total is up 4% to another record; MV is up 4%.

5/16 - SM is flat; PP is up; MV is down. Well-priced listings sell; others sit.

5/9 - Santa Monica is up from a surge of new listings; Pacific Palisades and Mar Vista are flat.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08  53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08  53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08  54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/ 9/08          65  13  86 143  35   4 135  99  90   5 100
 5/16/08  53,915  65  17  86 135  38   6 136 100  83   9 100
 5/23/08          62  19  83 141  36   8 141 103  86  16 102
 5/30/08          56  23  79 147  34   9 142 106  91  29  89
 6/ 6/08  

All Westside

             2/1    3/28    5/30 
                2/29     5/2 
Bel Air-H.Hls.85  82  95 100 108
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71  67  75  79  80
Beverly Hills 65  64  66  78  84
B.H. P.O.     78  80  92  95 101
B'wood Vic.   50  56  53  57  67
Brentwood     77  86  96 104 108
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21  19  20  24  25
Culver City   42  48  50  57  59
Malibu       185 200 213 242 261
Malibu Beach  38  49  57  60  50
Marina Del Rey26  36  25  25  26
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136 142
Palms-M.Vista 89  88  82  90  92
Playa Del Rey 22  19  15  15  23
Playa Vista    5   4   6   5   5
Santa Monica  67  68  81  84  79
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240 241
Topanga       49  44  63  69  66
Venice        72  72  74  83  85
W.H'wood Vic. 48  51  48  43  46
West L.A.     20  18  25  25  25
Westchester   72  54  79  86  91
W'wood-C.City 37  36  42  49  53
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
2008 Total  1509    1694    1917
                1524    1846
2007 Total  1282    1274    1457    1522    1671    1600
                1308    1377    1483    1551    1731    1329

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

Not selling on Mar Vista Hill

Last October 10 we had a look at inventory over 30 days on Mar Vista Hill. (Which, I noted, is not as clear-cut a location as, say, north of Montana. I included east of Centinela, north of Venice, south of National, and west of where it gets flat and cheaper.) The count then was 10. It's now only 5, but all over 90 days on the market, with 2 still from last October.

12121 Dewey St, 4 bed/3.0 bath, CLP=$1,385K (-13%), OLD=11/12/07
11924 Palms, 4/4.0, $2,050K (-5%), 12/3/07
3400 Keeshen Dr, 5/4.5, $2,250K (-6%), 1/14/08
3343 Mountain View Ave, 4/4.5, $2,950K (-16%), 8/2/07
3653 Mountain View Ave (photo), 4/4.0, $2,995K (-9%), 7/12/07

March Case-Shiller

More of the same as today's March 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller numbers continue their plummet, now back to June 2004.

(February chart) (November chart with Santa Monica index)

Los Angeles (black line, includes Orange County) is now down 24.4% from its peak in September 2006 - 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 17.8% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $417,721, $417,721 - $627,381, and Over $627,381; updated down for March). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, 30.8%. The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now down 18.5% from June 2006.

A toast to "developer pain"

Anon commented yesterday:

Check out this for developer pain
16463 Akron
2.935 - 10/21/07 (delisted in January)
1.995 - today
Seller is a "short pay" - no kidding
1M haircut anybody?

Memo to REALTOR(R): When you set up a "romantic" wine bottle on the patio table up the hill in the back yard, be sure to at least wash the wine glasses sometimes. Photo from 16463 Akron, October 2007. Yum! Yuck!

Added: I found a 9/07 listing sheet that shows LD=7/11/07 and OLP=$3,200K. That's a whopping 38% reduction!

Not selling in Pacific Palisades

Pacific Palisades listings inventory continues at record levels. I've only been tracking them individually below $2M, but let's use those to start a baseline of PP listings over 30 days on the market.

Of 36 below $2M on the market, 27 are over 30 days and 14 are over 90 days. A bare majority have had some price reduction, but apparently not enough.

(The photo house at 557 Almar is asking $1,700K. Nice location in El Medio Bluffs, but is a tear-down with no view really worth that?

"Great Builder Opportunity!! This 3BD/2BA single level Trad home is a Tear Down on a large 7880 sq ft lot (per assessor). This is a probate. Court confirmation is required.")

713 Hampden Pl, 2 bed/1.5 bath, CLP=$1,050K (+$4%), OLD=3/14/08
520 Bienveneda Ave, 2/1, $1,185K (-8%), 9/17/07
825 Radcliffe Ave, 3/2, $1,299K (-6%), 8/2/07
15314 Earlham St, 2/1, $1,349K (-10%), 2/28/08
751 Chautauqua, 2/1, $1,449K (-9%), 4/10/08
834 Hartzell St, 4/2, $1,449, 3/31/08
1101 Las Lomas Ave, 3/2, $1,475K (-5%), 2/25/08
946 Las Lomas Ave, 4/3, $1,499K, 4/9/08
1360 Goucher St, 3/2.5, $1,525K (-18%), 3/29/07
1315 Avenida de Cortez, 5/3, $1,549K (-3%), 1/31/08
16788 Calle de Marisa, 4/4, $1,599K (-14%), 11/6/07
16927 Livorno Dr, 2/1.5, $1,599K (-6%), 3/14/08
16572 Chattanooga Pl, 3/2.5, $1,599K (-11%), 10/18/07
3719 Seahorn Dr, 4/2, $1,649K, 3/27/08
601 Erskine Dr, 2/1.75, $1,650K, 3/20/08
16749 Bollinger Dr, 2/2.5, $1,695K (-3%), 11/5/07
14747 Oracle Pl, 3/2.5, $1,699K, 2/15/08
557 Almar Ave (photo), 3/2, $1,700K, 4/18/08
16981 Avenida de Santa Ynez, 4/2.5, $1,729K (-4%), 3/5/08
16750 Calle de Catalina, 4/4, $1,750K, 3/26/08
3716 Surfwood Dr, 3/2.5, $1,750K (-4%), 1/18/08
16766 Calle de Catalina, 4/3.5, $1,750K, 1/23/08
217 Giardino Wy, 3/3, $1,795K, 1/31/08
1462 Paseo de Oro, 5/4, $1,825K, 1/4/08
17026 Avenida de Santa Ynez, 4/3, $1,895K, 4/17/08
16647 Charmel Ln, 4/4, $1,899K (-4%), 6/15/07
16463 Akron St, 3/2, $1,995K, 1/10/08

Weekly inventory update

5/23 - SM and PP <$2M are down 5%, but PP total is up 4% to another record; MV is up 4%.

5/16 - SM is flat; PP is up; MV is down. Well-priced listings sell; others sit.

5/9 - Santa Monica is up from a surge of new listings; Pacific Palisades and Mar Vista are flat.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08  53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08  53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08  54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/ 9/08          65  13  86 143  35   4 135  99  90   5 100
 5/16/08  53,915  65  17  86 135  38   6 136 100  83   9 100
 5/23/08          62  19  83 141  36   8 141 103  86  16 102
 5/30/08  

Not selling north of Montana

The LA Times front page today includes, "CA mansion for sale, cheap. OK, cheaper." It begins,

The rich may indeed be like the rest of us. Prices of their homes are now falling too.

Gated mansions and hillside estates have held their own through most of the real estate slump, but data released Monday showed big drops in the region's most exclusive neighborhoods.

Perfect timing to update our everything over 30 days on the market north of Montana.

At 21 it matches last month and is double the past months' average, net of some sales and other new additions. Over 90 days on the market (red below) is down two, from 9 to 7. Here's the detail:

420 7th, 2 bed/2 bath, CLP=$1,777K (+27%**), OLD=8/16/07 (**redone to sell after first listing)
1140 San Vicente, 0/0, $1,895K (-14%), 1/30/08
517 Euclid, 5/2, $2,195K, 4/19/08
754 23rd, 4/3.5, $2,279K (-15%), 6/8/06
710 19th, 3/2, $2,295K (-8%), 3/10/08
460 Lincoln, 3/3, $2,395K, 4/14/08
238 17th, 4/3.5, $2,635K (-2%), 3/11/08
541 Euclid, 4/4.5, $3,200K (-7%), 4/7/08
1820 San Vicente, 4/3.5, $3,295K, 3/6/08
723 22nd, 4/4.5, $3,350K (-6%), 4/1/08
369 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,599K (-5%), 1/18/08
714 14th, 5/5.5, $3,695K (-1%), 2/26/08
636 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,995K, 3/14/08
316 25th, 5/5.5, $3,995K(-15%), 2/6/08
333 14th (photo), 5/6, $4,195K (-14%), 6/29/07
424 14th, 6/6.5, $4,195K, 3/6/08
734 22nd, 5/4.5, $4,288K, 3/21/08
205 19th, 4/5.5, $4,350K (-3%), 4/2/08
425 4th, 5/5.5, $4,890K (-6%), 2/4/08
508 Marguerita, 5/3.5, $5,495K (-4%), 4/18/08
808 Adelaide Pl, 7/10, $16,975K, 3/31/08

April DataQuick

Today's DataQuick April headline is "Southland home sales highest in eight months". But Los Angeles County median price continued down, now 20.9% below last August's peak, and sales volume is down 30.6% from April 2007. "Highest in eight months" is faint praise, especially as sales always turn up in the second quarter.

In neighboring counties there was a slight price uptick in Ventura and San Diego Counties. (Link to March DataQuick.)

Weekly inventory update

5/16 - SM is flat; PP is up; MV is down. Well-priced listings sell; others sit.

5/9 - Santa Monica is up from a surge of new listings; Pacific Palisades and Mar Vista are flat.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08  53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08  53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08  54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/ 9/08          65  13  86 143  35   4 135  99  90   5 100
 5/16/08  53,915  65  17  86 135  38   6 136 100  83   9 100
 5/23/08  

Not selling in Sunset Park

To round out Santa Monica, here's an update on inventory over 30 days on the market in Sunset Park (east of Lincoln, south of Pico).

5/16/08 - 14
1/16/08 - 14
12/15/07 - 15
11/14/07 - 24
10/15/07 - 19
9/13/07 - 16
8/15/07 - 12
7/14/07 - 13

So Sunset Park is more like Ocean Park, below last November's peak. Over half are over 90 days on the market. Here's the list (not including some recent listings).

2620 24th St, 2 bed/2 bath, CLP=$975K (-17%), OLD=12/26/07
1322 Maple St, 2/1, $999K, 3/12/08
1717 Robson Av, 2/1, $1,039K (-13%), 10/12/07
2314 Pier Av, 2/2, $1,099K (-12%), 7/9/07 (sold 3/23/07 $920K)
2224 Navy St, 2/1, $1,149K (-8%), 6/5/07
2424 Cloverfield Bl, 3/2, $1,219K (-2%), 3/21/08
1731 Cedar St, 3/1, $1,256K (-3%), 1/18/07
1225 Grant St, 3/2, $1,349K (-3%), 4/3/08
1215 Ashland Av, 3/1, $1,350K, 4/18/08
1621 Ashland Av, 2/1.5, $1,479K (-12%), 8/13/07
2637 34th St, 4/3.5, $1,695K, 3/25/08
1047 Pacific St, 3/2, $1,750K (-8%), 2/25/08
1611 Sunset Av, 3/3, $1,998K (-7%), 1/30/08
2516 Cloverfield Bl (photo), 4/3, $2,189 (-16%), 7/15/07

Not selling in Ocean Park

Let's see how Ocean Park (SM west of Lincoln, south of Pico) inventory over 30 days compares with last fall-winter.

5/15/08 - 11
1/16/08 - 15
12/15/07 - 16
11/14/07 - 15
10/15/07 - 10
9/15/07 - 10
8/19/07 - 11

So unlike north of Montana, it's at last fall's level, but with all but two over 90 days on the market (red below). Few new listings and very stuck old ones, two from 2006. Here's the detail:

718 Marine St, 1 bed/1 bath, CLP=$799K (-8%), OLD=5/25/07
727 Marine St, 2/1, $799K, 2/7/08
748 Navy St, 1/1, $899K (-10%), 3/5/08
213 Pacific St #2/3, 3/2, $1,529K (-1%), 8/1/07
2629 6th St (photo), 3/2, $1,750K (+3%), 10/3/06
2912 2nd St, 2/1, $1,900K (+31% for condo plans), 12/29/06
654 Ashland Ave, 3/2, $1,995K (-13%), 11/8/07
152 Hart Ave, 4/3, $2,200K, 2/8/08
150 Fraser Ave, 2/2, $2,295K (-8%), 10/4/07
2517 3rd St, 3/2, $2,498K, 4/10/08
2606 Highland, 2/2.75, $3,000K (-14%), 11/9/07

"Lowest priced home in SM"

On the subject of close to the freeway, how about this new 3 bed / 2 bath listing at 2901 Kansas Ave., asking $699K:

"Lowest priced home in Santa Monica. Three bedrooms and two baths on a large lot. Remodel or rebuild. First showing Sunday 5/18 from 2:00-5:00...."

Where is Kansas? Hint: that's the freeway soundwall above the house's backyard, a block east of Stewart.

Not selling south of Montana

We haven't followed single-family houses between Wilshire and Montana (90403) as closely as other neighborhoods. But they too seem to be accumulating stuck inventory.

The poster child is the attempted flip at 2320 Idaho, listed over 13 months now, "before" photo above. We have two others from 2007 and three more from January. Here is everything on the market over 30 days (with thanks to SM Distress Monitor for two of the linked items):

1053 17th St, 2 bed/1 bath, CLP=$1,300K, OLD=1/8/08
1015 25th St, 2/1, $1,475K, 1/8/08 (sold 1/12/07 $1,200K)
1123 Berkeley St, 3/2.5, $1,798K, 4/14/08
865 Harvard St, 2/1, $1,849K (-7%), 1/16/08
2320 Idaho Ave, 3/3, $1,995K (-17%), 3/22/07 (sold 4/4/06 $1,335K)
1135 Berkeley St, 4/3, $1,995K (-16%), 7/9/07
837 22nd St, 4/3.5, $2,675K (-3%), 11/26/07

Melissa sales by zip code

Melissa Data is a mailing list vendor. Usefully for us, one of their products is lists of "new homeowners" and they provide counts by month and geography for free. We last visited their data for north-of-Montana 90402, Ocean-Sunset Park 90405, and Mar Vista 90066 on October 6.

Their sales data presumably includes both single-family houses and condos, but lacking complete data from DataQuick it's still useful. Despite the typical spikiness of data by zip code, I see a rounded peak and beginning price trend down in all three zip codes. Note the vertical scales differ for each graph.

"freeway access nearby"

Remember 2937 Delaware Ave. in SM (south of Olympic, east of Stewart) last September (lower arrow in photo)? It was a nice 2 bed / 1 bath house, priced well for sale at $720K, despite being just a block north of the freeway. It sold quickly for $757K.

Then there's the new 3 bed / 1.75 bath listing at 3003 Delaware (upper arrow), asking $989K, described as:

"Quiet tree-lined street on corner lot. 3 beds/1.75 baths. Family neighborhood, walk to park and stores and freeway access nearby. Newer kitchen w/ granite countertops opens to landscaped front yard. Bright & spacious w/ high ceilings in family room. Generous backyard with covered patio and extra storage near the garage...."

Guess it's all in how you define "quiet". Not much traffic on Delaware, but you sure hear the freeway! Is that extra bedroom and 3/4 bath worth over $200K?!

Get the price wrong and you sit. The 3 bed / 2 bath across the freeway at 2124 Yorkshire Ave., reduced slightly to $1,035K, is unsold 250 days from first listing. And the 2 bed / 2 bath foreclosure next to the freeway at 3121 Urban Ave. is down to $799,900 at 67 days.

Subway meeting this week

There's one more in the latest round of community meetings on the Wilshire subway (more information; maps of alternatives):

* Monday, May 12, 6:00 pm, Plummer Park, 7377 Santa Monica Blvd., West Hollywood.

Weekly inventory update

5/9 - Santa Monica is up from a surge of new listings; Pacific Palisades and Mar Vista are flat.

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08  53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08  53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 5/ 2/08  54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/ 9/08          65  13  86 143  35   4 135  99  90   5 100
 5/16/08  

Navy St. outcome?

Remember this Ocean Park 2 bed / 1.5 bath "brownstone" "greenstucco" at 750 Navy St. from March 13 that was asking an unlikely $1,900K?

Yet it left the market not long after. Could it have actually sold at that price? Guess not. I heard its builder decided to live in it.

If you're disappointed, there's still 807 Navy, 4 bed / 3 bath, asking $1,499K since 4/10, described as:

"Escrow Fell Through!! One of a kind legal live/work space in Ocean pk. Unique industrial loft like structure designed by Michael Folonis. Soaring 20 foot ceilings and flooded with natural light. Two floating mezzanines, one converted to cool master suite. Exposed cinder block walls and metal I beams and unique window placement throughout. Sunny central patio. All living spaces on 2nd level above 6 car security parking. Close all that Main St. has to offer inc. Farmer's Market and the beach...."

Don't you love the description about Main St. and the beach, rather than the used car lot next door on Lincoln Blvd.

Recession in Las Vegas

Just heard on the CBS night news, Las Vegas, that "used to be recession-proof," has gambling revenues down nearly 5% this year. They previously only fell once since 1970, 1% after 9/11.

Convention business is down over 10%, and MGM-Mirage's stock price has fallen from over $100 last October to below $49 today. More evidence consumers are tightening.

To think about

I just found this lecture by Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, "The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class" (via Energy Bulletin of all places). The precarious economic foundation she documents is another reason to expect house prices to return to more sustainable levels.

She begins with a focus on the span of one generation, from 1970-1 to 2005-6. Median incomes rose for married couples, but fully-employed males made slightly less. The increase was only because women went into the workforce.

Savings fell from 11% of take-home pay to below zero. Revolving debt rose from 1.4% to 15% of income. In other words, they now spend all of mom's income plus what they used to save plus went into debt.

What did they spend it on? Spending is less on food, clothing, appliances, cars, in real terms, than a generation ago. The five big increases were:

• 76% increase on mortgage payments, despite lower interest rates, without major average house size increase;
  
• 74% increase in health insurance, and that's for those with employer-sponsored insurance;
  
• More cars per family;
  
• Childcare;
  
• 25% increase in taxes, from higer rates with two earners.

Additional notes

• 3/4 of income to big, fixed expenses
  
• Greater risks of lost income with both parents earning, such as family emergencies;
  
• One-income families can't compete;
  
• 100% house cost increase for families with children - parents are buying school quality [as we see in Santa Monica];
  
• Now believe college diploma necessary for middle class - parents' cost of launching next generation more expensive, from pre-school to college;
  
• Much greater rate of bankruptcy filing - job loss, medical problem, family breakup - more children in households filing bankruptcy than divorce;
  
• Some middle class join a larger upper class - sort-of-rich that don't hit risks, while others become underclass on debt treadmill, living on edge of a cliff, never with the security of past middle class.
  

Second, Paul B. Farrell today includes:

6. 'Great Recession' will dominate the next president's term

Our oblivious leaders in Washington and on Wall Street (the same ones who denied our problems for three years before the mid-2007 meltdown) are already happy-talking a pre-election recovery. In his Portfolio article Jesse Eisinger warns: "The next president will take office during what may well come to be known as the 'Great Recession,' the worst financial crisis of the post-World War II era," he warns. "The economic revival of the past few years -- once celebrated on the right as the 'Bush boom' -- was a mirage, conjured up by excessive borrowing and irresponsible lending." In 2009, a new president will be forced to raise taxes and fund a "New, New Deal." Yes, it's that bad, even worse than you think.

Where would you raise taxes? Where the money is, the people who buy expensive houses. Think that will affect north-of-Montana prices?

His other subheads reinforce the "eye of the hurricane" view:

7. Wall Street's clueless, will miss next big turning points too
8. Consumer-confidence collapse signals systemic shift
9. No bottom in sight for declining home prices
10. Wall Street's leading guru-of-gurus very worried

Tighter jumbos

Important stuff on more restrictions for jumbo loans over at The Great Loan Blog yesterday (thanks for the heads-up):

This week we witnessed a dramatic change within the jumbo mortgage and luxury financing space that has broad implications for housing markets across the country. It appears to have started with Wells Fargo on Monday and spread within a day to all investors whether bank, insurance, pension or hedge fund money sources. ...

Program loan to value limits were cut between 5-10% at most investors. We received dozens of calls from brokers, realtors, and loan officers across the country desperatly searching for 20-25% down financing for their purchases that now require 30-35% down or millions in reserves which most clients don't have. Programs are available to put 20% down on property up to 6m but they require 1-3m plus in liquid assets beyond the down payment. ...

Making it even harder to move the glut of $3M+ Westside houses.

Monthly inventory update

5/2 - SM and PP were pretty flat for the week, while MV rose to its highest point this year. All are up month-to-month and well above last year's level.

The larger Westside is up 9% month-to-month and a huge 34% from April 2007.

4/25 - SM was pretty flat after last week's jump, while PP and MV both had their jumps higher.

4/18 - Big 6-7% jump in Santa Monica! PP and MV were pretty flat.

4/11 - Pretty flat for the week, SM slightly up, PP flat, MV down a little.

4/4 - Santa Monica is down a little, Pacific Palisades is up a little (and setting record highs because of higher-priced listings), and Mar Vista is flat. (3/28 New listings adjusted for new listings through 3/31.)

       LA County  Santa Monica  Pacific Palisades  Mar Vista
                <$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 1/30/06  27,732
 2/28/06  29,420
 3/31/06  31,819
 5/ 1/06  34,032  38  33
 6/ 2/06  37,847  56  36      38
 6/30/06  42,317  66  40      49
 8/ 4/06  45,315  70  34      50
 9/ 1/06  46,781  71  27      59
10/ 6/06  47,369  83  25  98  71
11/ 3/06  45,780  80  20  91  77
12/ 1/06  43,103  65  18  72  96  39  20
 1/ 5/07  35,646  54   4  60 117  33   6  71  66
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 2/07  36,715  38  15  45 124  29  16  61  71  70      
 3/ 2/07  41,251  42  14  51 114  26  10  68  79  55  25  76
 4/ 6/07  42,857  41  23  49 107  18   8  73 103  54  52  50
 5/ 4/07  45,918  46  28  54  92  19   6  82  79  71  37  52
 6/ 1/07  52,198  50  25  61  78  17  15  87  78  77  39  53
 6/30/07  52,769  42  18  56  81  17  11  92  77  74  33  61
 8/ 3/07  54,166  53  28  68  86  23  12  78  76  84  39  68
 8/31/07  57,432  57  21  72  98  18   7  69  75  90  40  79
 9/28/07  58,973  59  17  74 103  26   9  90  81  87  20  87
11/ 2/07  58,731  62  19  81 120  29   7 106  77  98  35  88
11/30/07  59,108  52  14  67 136  23  11  88  94  96  23  96
12/31/07  53,475  42   5  53 148  19   2  73 119  79  13 116
--------  ------  --------------  --------------  ----------
 2/ 1/08  53,722  54  16  67 157  26  16 101 118  89  36  96
 2/29/08  53,520  50  10  68 178  29   8 108 108  88  21 103
 3/28/08  53,566  57  17  81 171  32  14 122  92  82  22 105
 4/ 4/08  54,290  55   1  78 164  34   0 124 101  82   5 101
 4/11/08  54,468  56   6  79 162  34   2 125 104  79  13 102
 4/18/08          60  10  84 161  33   4 126  96  79  20  98
 4/25/08  53,359  59  14  85 168  36   7 132 101  85  27  90
 5/ 2/08  54,098  59  14  83 159  35   7 136  93  90  33  96
 5/ 9/08  

All Westside

             2/1    3/28 
                2/29     5/2 
Bel Air-H.Hls.85  82  95 100
Bev.Ctr.-M.M. 71  67  75  79
Beverly Hills 65  64  66  78
B.H. P.O.     78  80  92  95
B'wood Vic.   50  56  53  57
Brentwood     77  86  96 104
Chev.-R.Pk.'8'21  19  20  24
Culver City   42  48  50  57
Malibu       185 200 213 242
Malibu Beach  38  49  57  60
Marina Del Rey26  36  25  25
Pac.Palisades101 108 122 136
Palms-M.Vista 89  88  82  90
Playa Del Rey 22  19  15  15
Playa Vista    5   4   6   5
Santa Monica  67  68  81  84
Sunset-Hwd.H.189 185 215 240
Topanga       49  44  63  69
Venice        72  72  74  83
W.H'wood Vic. 48  51  48  43
West L.A.     20  18  25  25
Westchester   72  54  79  86
W'wood-C.City 37  36  42  49
             ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 
Total       1509    1694
                1524    1846

Notes

See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.

Imagine the Possibilities

The description for this new 2 bed / 1.5 bath listing at 2716 Sawtelle Blvd, asking $610K, is:

"IMAGINE THE POSSIBILITIES. 2 BEDROOMS PLUS DEN AND A DETACHED BONUS ROOM WITH BUILT IN CABINETRY. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRICED HOME IN THE AREA...."

How does the old song go, Sawtelle traffic in front of me, freeway bridge behind me, here I am, stuck in the middle with you... ?

Such possibilities!