Los Angeles continued down in the latest, March 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update. Including Orange County, it is now down 41.3% from its September 2006 peak, back to August 2003 levels.
By month that's 1.4% from February, 2.0% from January, 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 33.1% from its peak in June 2006.
Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $287,811, $287,811 - $440,347, and Over $440,347; updated for March). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now 53.3%.
The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now 30.8% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to January 2004.
And here's an update on my north of Montana index (low-end 9th, 10th, 12th, and Euclid) and January projection based on income trends of around 33% below the peak, to spring 2003 prices (or more if it overshoots).
It's been a 22% drop so far from the 6/13/07 sale of 307 Euclid for $2,050K to the 5/20/09 sale of 320 9th for $1,600K. With record inventory there's every reason for it to continue down.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
March S&P/Case-Shiller
Monday, May 25, 2009
"Trust"?!
Not everyone, however, is likely to be as savvy as Gold when it comes to buying a home, said Michael Darling, a Pasadena agent ....Yes, a real estate agent is talking about "trust" of all things as the reason to use him!
"I've sold a couple of houses to buyers represented by Redfin," Darling said. "They're very analytical, left-brained people.
"Some people still just want to trust somebody."
Put that in the context of this email from reader Richard:
I walked through this house a few months ago and spoke with the realtor.
There are two very large discrepancies in the following text:See Virtual fo photos and awesome floorplan.. Move right into this charming, clean 1800 square foot, 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath home in beautiful Sunset Park area of Santa Monica.Freshly painted, one bedroom leads through french doors to a large redwood patio to the back yard, and another bedroom leads through french doors to a small deck as well. Stainless steel Viking 6-burner range as well as a side by side stainless steel sub zero refrigerator.1- the house does not have a subzero refrigerator. It has a stainless steel refrigerator (I think it was an Amana). 2- the house does not have 1800 sq.ft. as advertised Zillow lists it at 1500 sq.ft. And if you go to the virtual tour there is plan of the house if you add up all the rooms (even adding the outdoor 'decks' you get at most 1500 sq.ft.). I pointed out these two facts to [ ] who represents the house and was told that the refrigerator was stainless steel finish and that was enough and that she had had the house measured by professionals and that it was 1800 sq.ft.
I have no personal ax to grind. I just find it incredibly annoying that they can get away with putting lies in the description. Maybe a mention might be in order?
Definitely! It's also timely to echo WarChestSM in requesting comments refrain from "senseless bashing and name calling" while noting we've been here before, seeking civility in the face of unprofessional behavior.
Weekly inventory update
5/22/09 - Santa Monica is down, mostly from withdrawn/expired listings. Pacific Palisades is flat. Palms-Mar Vista is down, from a lot of new escrows below $700K.
5/15/09 - Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Palms-Mar Vista inventory are all up a little for the week.
5/8/09 - Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Palms-Mar Vista inventory are all down a little for the week.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/ 8/09 86 4 113 165 68 3 187 160 72 9 127
5/15/09 88 9 115 164 70 7 185 160 75 16 127
5/22/09 82 11 108 165 70 9 184 159 68 18 137
5/29/09
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Sold $1.6M!
Our low-end north of Montana indicator 3 bed / 2 bath house at 320 9th Street just closed yesterday for $1,600K. Originally listed 11/12/08 for $2,095K, it then reduced in $100K steps until it went Pending on 3/31/09 when list price was $1,699K.
Another interesting comp is the 3 bed / 2.5 bath house at 403 22nd Street. It's a 2,523 SF house on a big 9,815 SF (65 x 151 feet) corner lot. Originally listed 2/3/09 for $2,399K, reduced to $2,100K in late February, it sold 5/15/09 for $2,050K. Does its closing in only 2 days from Contract Date of 5/13 mean an all-cash offer? Its photos and description don't suggest it's fixed up inside:
"Great location. Close to shops and restaurants. Come build your dream home on a 9815 sq ft lot. Dimensions 65x151. Corner lot. Easy to show."
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
April DataQuick
It's kind of bizarre how DataQuick's median prices for Los Angeles County have flat-lined for four months now. Here are some highlights of their press release, which reinforce the Westside's current experience of record inventory and very low sales:
Foreclosure resales – homes sold in April that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 53.6 percent of all Southland resales last month. It was the seventh consecutive month in which post-foreclosure properties made up more than half of all resales.
The deep discounts associated with foreclosures have created stiff competition for builders, who last month sold the lowest number of newly constructed homes for an April since at least 1988. ...
The sales picture was dramatically different in many older, high-end communities closer to the coast, where foreclosures and deep discounts are less common. Sales of existing houses remained at or near record lows for an April in markets such as Beverly Hills, Malibu, Palos Verdes Peninsula, Manhattan Beach and Pacific Palisades.
Among the reasons high-end sales remain so sluggish: The “jumbo” mortgages needed to buy such homes have been more expensive and much harder to obtain since August 2007, when the credit crunch hit. Before then, nearly 40 percent of Southland sales were financed with jumbo loans, then defined as over $417,000. Last month it was 10.9 percent.
In the more affordable inland areas, first-time buyers have relied heavily on government-insured FHA financing. Such loans were used to finance a near-record 39.1 percent of all Southland home purchases last month, up from 18.4 percent a year ago. In the Inland Empire, more than half of all April home purchases were financed with FHA loans. ...
“The problem,” [John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president] continued, “is that we still face two big threats to price stability: layoffs, which can cause foreclosures across the home price spectrum, and possibly a new round of foreclosures triggered by defaults on ‘option ARM’ and ‘stated income’loans used in mid-to high-end markets. Also of concern are reports of lenders holding back for many months before making a public foreclosure filing, which we track. If job cuts remain deep and foreclosures spike, then the past few months might later be viewed as nothing more than a brief calm before the next foreclosure storm.”
Median prices are down 45.5% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 28% year-to-year from April 2008. (February DataQuick post; oops, I wiped out the March one)
This leaves Los Angeles County prices at April 2003, Orange County at November 2002, Ventura County at November 2002, and San Diego at February 2002.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Not selling in Sunset Park
It's not just north of Montana that has a record level of stagnant inventory pushing prices down. Sunset Park's inventory over 30 days on the market doubled from a year ago (east of Lincoln, south of Pico).
5/17/09 - 28
2/23/09 - 20
5/16/08 - 14
1/16/08 - 14
12/15/07 - 15
11/14/07 - 24
10/15/07 - 19
9/13/07 - 16
8/15/07 - 12
7/14/07 - 13
Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date
819 Pier, 2/1, $599K (-45%), 5/9/08
2329 32nd, 2/1, $819K, 11/7/08
2432 21st, 3/1.5, $825K, 3/28/09
1325 Grant, 3/2, $889K (-6%), 2/5/09
1514 Maple, 2/2, $895K (-10%), 1/8/09
2302 Hill, 2/1, $949K, 3/25/09
1037 Hill, 3/1, $949K, 4/17/09
1100 Ocean Park, 3/2, $950K, 2/23/09
2455 Cloverfield, 3/1.5, $1,000K (-9%), 11/19/08
1108 Ocean Park, 3/2, $1,000K, 2/23/09
1225 Grant (photo above), 3/2, $1,049K (-25%), 4/3/08
3023 Glenn, 3/3, $1,050K (-5%), 1/22/09
2103 Hill, 3/2, $1,050K (-4%), 3/18/09
1601 Marine, 3/2, $1,098K (-4%), 3/18/09
1731 Cedar, 3/1, $1,100 (-15%), 1/18/08
1027 Ashland, 4/1.75, $1,249 (-10%), 4/25/08
2209 Pearl, 3/2, $1,350K (-7%), 2/26/09
823 Cedar, 4/4, $1,395K, 3/29/09
1047 Grant, 3/2, $1,399K (-7%), 1/28/09
2208 Ashland, 2/2, $1,449K, 2/4/09
2659 33rd, 3/3, $1,449K (-6%), 2/27/09
1701 Oak, 4/3, $1,695K (-11%), 10/28/08
3004 Prospect, 5/3, $1,728K, 4/8/09
1214 Pearl, 4/4.5, $1,785K (-16%), 10/8/08
1611 Sunset, 3/3, $1,795K (-17%), 1/30/08
1208 Sunset, 4/4, $1,895K (+6%), 11/1/08
1701 Pier, 3/3, $1,988K (-9%), 3/6/09
2202 Marine (photo below), 4/3.5, $2,595K (-4%), 3/26/09
Here's what happened to the ones from 2/23/09 that are no longer available.
Withdrawn / Expired
2633 30th, 3/3, $895K (-30%), 1/4/09
1328 Hill, 3/2, $1,098 (-14%), 6/30/08
1731 Wellesley, 4/3, $1,400K (-7%), 9/11/08
2222 Marine, 4/4, $1,450K (-27%), 5/17/07
2904 Pearl, 4/4, $1,650K (-11%), 6/24/08
Looking for Backup / Pending / Sold
2219 14th, 2/3, $725K, 1/18/09
1213 Oak, 2/1.5, $795K (-11%), 9/17/08, 3/27/09, $800K (+1%)
1008 Bay, 2/1, $849K (-5%), 1/5/09, 3/26/09, $825K (-3%)
2424 31st, 3/2, $1,099K (-10%), 11/24/08
1643 Hill, 5/4, $1,350K (-27%), 8/5/08, 5/5/09, $1,150K (-15%)
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Not selling north of Montana
Enough with Mar Vista, eh? So let's get back to everyone's favorite neighborhood and update our "Not selling north of Montana" series, last done three months ago. Here's the summary of our monthly lists of everything over 30 days on the market in past months. They keep accumulating, putting more pressure to reduce prices.
5/16/09 - 33
2/16/09 - 29
5/20/08 - 21
4/21/08 - 21
1/16/08 - 7
12/15/07 - 9
11/14/07 - 9
10/15/07 - 11
9/15/07 - 10
8/16/07 - 13
7/16/07 - 8
Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date
209 25th (photo above), 3/2.5, $1,748K (-15%), 10/7/08
639 26th, 2/2, $1,750K (-10%), 10/3/08
237 Adelaide, 1/1.5, $2,195K (-24%), 7/7/08
464 20th, 3/2, $2,195K, 4/2/09
633 11th, 5/4.5, $2,495K (-23%), 6/14/08
2009 Montana, 5/6.5, $2,498K (-11%), 3/4/09
508 10th, 4/3, $2,499K, 4/14/09
457 24th, 5/4.5, $2,595K, 3/26/09
405 9th, 3/3.5, $2,698K (-4%), 3/2/09
634 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,750K, 3/6/09
715 23rd, 5/5.5, $2,895K (-12%), 2/12/09
811 Marguerita, 4/3.5, $2,990K, 3/26/09
365 23rd, 4/4.5, $3,195K (-14%), 11/13/08
553 12th, 5/4.5, $3,295K (-6%), 1/26/09
402 Alta, 4/4.5, $3,495K (-10%), 3/23/09
1211 Georgina, 5/3.5, $3,550K, 3/12/09
229 22nd, 4/4.5, $3,600K (-10%), 2/17/09
311 Marguerita, 5/4.5, $3,695K, 1/5/09
710 24th, 6/5.5, $3,695K, 3/30/09
133 17th, 5/6.5, $3,695K (-23%), 10/30/08
324 Euclid, 5/4.5, $3,785K (-11%), 12/1/07
628 24th, 5/6.5, $3,795K (-12%), 7/21/08
739 23rd, 5/4, $3,895K (-9%), 6/4/08
607 26th, 6/5, $3,950K (-17%), 3/20/09
215 21st Pl, 5/4.5, $3,995K (-5%), 12/12/08
209 Euclid, 5/6, $3,999K (-9%), 2/5/09
251 24th, 6/6, $4,000K (-15%), 10/31/08
703 25th, 5/5.5, $4,195K (-11%), 11/6/08
509 21st Pl, 6/6, $4,250K, 4/2/09
402 20th (photo below), 5/5.5, $4,288K (-22%), 10/30/08
315 Palisades, 4/3.5, $5,299K (-12%), 12/9/08
333 Adelaide, 4/6.5, $9,850K, 2/3/09
1605 San Vicente, 7/8, $16,500K (-27%), 2/9/09
And here's what happened to the ones from 2/16/09 that are no longer available: 13 withdrawn / expired vs. only 6 looking for backup / pending / sold.
Withdrawn / Expired
527 7th, 2/1, $1,690K (-6%), 5/12/08
733 20th, 3/2, $1,995K (-5%), 10/27/08
620 22nd, 3/2, $2,099K (-12%), 10/23/08
308 15th, 3/2, $2,350K (-5%), 1/5/09
1102 San Vicente, 4/2, $2,495K, 10/24/08
247 20th, 3/3, $2,500K (-13%), 10/8/08
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08
1628 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K (-21%), 10/25/08
444 10th, 5/3, $3,130K, 11/13/08
636 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,495K (-13%), 3/14/08
443 14th, 4/5.5, $3,950K (-7%), 12/4/08
1005 San Vicente, 2/4.5, $3,995K (-7%), 9/12/08
1228 San Vicente, 5/5.5, $5,250K, 10/21/08
Looking for Backup / Pending / Sold
320 9th, 3/2, $1,699K (-19%), 11/12/08
415 17th, 3/3, $1,799K (-20%), 12/4/08
634 12th, 3/2.5, $2,625K (-3%), 10/20/08
734 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,678K (-14%), 3/21/08
327 Alta, 5/3.5, $3,995K, 12/1/08
808 Adelaide Pl, 7/10, $12,450K (-27%), 3/31/08, 4/27/09, $10,650K (-7%)
Weekly inventory update
5/15/09 - Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Palms-Mar Vista inventory are all up a little for the week.
5/8/09 - Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Palms-Mar Vista inventory are all down a little for the week.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/ 8/09 86 4 113 165 68 3 187 160 72 9 127
5/15/09 88 9 115 164 70 7 185 160 75 16 127
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Mar Vista low-end price index?
I had an idea of creating a low-end Mar Vista price index like what we've talked about for Santa Monica north of Montana, to estimate low-end Westside price declines.
I chose 2- and 3-bedroom houses south of Washington on the north-south streets Sunnyside, Tivoli, Michael, Luceum, Beethoven, and Moore. I omitted Alla (busy street), the less-than-50'-wide lots (some are 25' and 40'), and the Culver City lots on the east side of Moore. Which left these three from last Sunday's Mar Vista post, a good number from 2008, but only one that closed in 2007, despite tracking Mar Vista listings from the beginning of that year. I've added house square feet for comparison; lot sizes range from 4,950 to 5,500.
Conclusions? Maybe one could eyeball a price drop, but there aren't enough data points to really know.
(I used the dramatic photo from 3/6/08 of 4140 Sunnyside, even though it's not really low-end, because we just saw 4058 Lyceum. This photo may have gotten them a price record that will last some years!)
Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price), square feet
2009
4058 Lyceum, 3/1, $525K, 2/17/09, 4/2/09, $510K (-3%), 1,125
4220 Sunnyside, 2/1, $719K, 11/6/08, 1/5/09, $717K (-0%), 957
4053 Beethoven, 3/1.75, $739K, 2/4/09, 3/24/09, $775K (+5%), 1,483
2008
4146 Michael, 3/1.5, $679K (-9%), 8/22/08, 12/10/08, $679K, 1,260
4121 Michael, 2/1, $699K, 3/27/08, 5/20/08, $715K (+2%), 872
4041 Moore, 3/1, $699K (-4%), 2/28/08, 5/20/08, $686K (-2%), 998
4237 Tivoli, 3/1, $739K (-4%), 10/8/07, 2/26/08, $743K (+1%), 1,065
4210 Tivoli, 2/1, $799K (-6%), 10/8/07, 2/28/08, $765K (-4%), 1,142
4150 Michael, 2/2, $799K, 1/22/08, 3/7/08, $772K (-3%), 1,430
4140 Sunnyside (photo), 3/2.5, $1,000K (-5%), 1/7/08, 3/14/08, $990K (-1%), 1,208
2007
4131 Michael, 2/1, $774K, 2/22/07, 4/10/07, $755K (-2%), 808
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Mar Vista sales Jan-Apr
Mar Vista is where a lot of our local sales activity is. By Westside standards it is affordable coastal, much within reach of conforming loans, while higher-priced areas have very little happening. The predominant sales price range this year in Mar Vista has been $5-800K.
Most of the quick sales of well-priced listings we listed last Sunday were there. Conversely, high-end sales on Mar Vista Hill are nearly dead, and it took a 37% reduction from $3,995K to $2,500K to sell the architectural at 4056 Marcasel (photo below).
Besides tracking its inventory I've highlighted it occasionally; these were in the last year:
Mar Vista indicator 9/08It made sense to divide Mar Vista into east and west of Centinela, north of Palms, from Palms to Venice, and south of Venice. I've also highlighted reductions over 10% in red.
Mar Vista west of Centinela outcomes 9/08
Ancient on Michael x 2 6/08
Corinth Corinth Corinth 6/08
Not selling on Mar Vista Hill 5/08
Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)
Venice-Culver, Walgrove/Redwood-Centinela
4058 Lyceum (photo above), 3/1, $525K, 2/17/09, 4/2/09, $510K (-3%)
12494 Rubens, 5/3, $530K (-15%), 12/16/08, 3/26/09, $530K
4310 Alla, 3/1, $539K (-17%), 10/8/08, 2/5/09, $475K (-12%)
4240 Moore, 2/1, $550K (-11%), 9/19/08, 2/20/09, $555K (+1%)
12546 Mitchell, 2/1, $550K (-21%), 8/15/08, 1/22/09, $478K (-13%)
12521 Rubens, 4/3, $699K (-12%), 3/28/08, 3/3/09, $645K (-8%)
4210 Chase, 2/1.75, $699K (-4%), 10/26/08, 1/20/09, $650K (-7%)
2421 Walgrove, 3/2, $699K (-13%), 8/13/08, 2/2/09, $660K (-6%)
4220 Sunnyside, 2/1, $719K, 11/6/08, 1/5/09, $717K (-0%)
4053 Beethoven, 3/1.75, $739K, 2/4/09, 3/24/09, $775K (+5%)
12937 Panama, 3/1.75, $745K, 1/7/09, 3/31/09, $728K (-2%)
4234 Kenyon, 3/2, $749K (-14%), 11/19/08, 2/12/09, $713K (-5%)
4018 Coolidge, 3/2, $789K, 12/13/08, 3/18/09, $777K (-2%)
3827 Lyceum, 3/2, $859K, 1/9/09, 3/10/09, $855K (-0%)
Venice-Culver, Centinela-405
11535 Culver, 3/2, $470K (-18%), 4/24/08, 2/25/09, $465K (-1%)
3923 Berryman, 3/1, $485K, 10/15/08, 1/22/09, $525K (+8%)
11814 N Park, 3/1, $695K (-4%), 9/30/08, 2/20/09, $675K (-3%)
4056 Marcasel (photo below), 3/3, $2,995K (-25%), 10/2/08, 3/2/09, $2,500K (-17%)
Palms-Venice, Walgrove-Centinela
2125 Walgrove, 2/1, $570K (-5%), 11/9/08, 2/9/09, $555K (-3%)
3748 Ashwood, 3/2, $675K (-10%), 9/12/08, 1/8/09, $665K (-1%)
3779 Colonial, 2/1, $685K (-2%), 10/29/08, 1/14/09, $670K (-2%)
3613 Greenwood, 3/2, $839K, 1/30/09, 3/25/09, $832K (-1%)
Palms-Venice, Centinela-405
11250 Tabor, 4/2, $550K (-29%), 2/1/08, 3/13/09, $475K (-14%)
11625 Charnock, 2/2, $629K (-3%), 12/4/08, 3/17/09, $607K (-3%)
3540 McLaughlin, 3/1.75, $679K (+3%), 12/1/08, 2/4/09, $671K (-1%)
3556 Purdue, 3/2, $739K, 9/19/08, 2/3/09, $739K
3475 McLaughlin, 3/2, $749K, 1/23/09, 3/13/09, $749K
3666 Barry, 4/2, $775K, 8/22/08, 2/25/09, $650K (-16%)
3543 Butler, 3/2.75, $779K (-22%), 11/26/07, 1/28/09, $740K (-5%)
3769 Grand View, 4/2, $950K, 7/29/08, 3/11/09, $870K (-8%)
11942 Lawler, 3/2, $1,050K, 2/18/09, 4/11/09, $1,008K (-4%)
S.M Airport-Palms, Walgrove-Centinela
12677 Dewey, 3/1.5, $695K (-11%), 7/28/08, 4/2/09, $700K (+1%)
12511 Stanwood, 2/2, $839K, 12/5/08, 1/26/09, $825K (-2%)
12507 Stanwood, 3/1.75, $889K, 1/30/09, 3/23/09, $860K (-3%)
12737 Dewey, 5/4, $899K (-18%), 8/15/08, 3/26/09, $880K (-2%)
National-Palms, Centinela-405
3331 Purdue, 3/1.75, $879K (-4%), 12/4/08, 3/13/09, $781K (-11%)
3260 Coolidge, 3/1.75, $899K (-5%), 10/15/08, 3/25/09, $900K (+0%)
3425 Mountain View, 5/4.5, $1,975 (-14%), 8/15/08, 2/2/09, $1,700K (-14%)
Weekly inventory update
5/8/09 - Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, and Palms-Mar Vista inventory are all down a little for the week.
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/ 8/09 86 4 113 165 68 3 187 160 72 9 127
5/15/09
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Pearls Before Swine
Did you all see this in the LA Times Sunday comics, 4/19/09? It says it better than most business columnists. Click on the image or here for the whole strip.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
SM and PP sales update
For all the talk about whether sales are up or not, what matters is how much prices are falling, that is what houses are selling for now. Here's an update of all Pacific Palisades (<$2M) and Santa Monica sales closed since our March 16 YTD listing, and I'll aim for monthly updates going forward. Probably all of these also entered escrow in 2009, making them even more timely.
Notice some huge asking price reductions and additional sold price cuts it took to finally sell some listings from 2008 (over 10% in red). Some sellers actually need to sell, and they are finally creating the falling comps for new listings.
Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)
Sunset Park 90405 (south of Pico, east of Lincoln)
1213 Oak, 2/1.5, $795K (-11%), 9/17/08, 3/27/09, $800K (+1%)
1008 Bay, 2/1, $849K (-5%), 1/5/09, 3/26/09, $825K (-3%)
2421 21st, 2/1, $929K (-5%), 1/28/09, 4/9/09, $910K (-2%)
1643 Hill, 5/4, $1,350K (-27%), 8/5/08, 5/5/09, $1,150K (-15%)
Ocean Park 90405 (south of Pico, west of Lincoln)
2428 3rd, 4/3, $1,789K (-6%), 10/23/08, 4/17/09, $1,740K (-3%)
130 Hart, 2/3, $2,350K, 1/12/09, 3/20/09, $2,250K (-4%)
127 Hollister, 3/4, $2,755K (-19%), 10/2/08, 3/31/09, $2,775K (+1%)
Santa Monica 90403 (Wilshire-Montana)
(none)
Santa Monica 90402 (north of Montana)
210 21st, 3/3, $1,840K (-26%), 6/19/08, 4/14/09, $1,700K (-8%)
517 14th, 3/2.75, $1,898K (-21%), 5/1/08, 4/16/09, $1,775K (-6%)
1320 San Vicente, 3/3.5, $2,199K (-20%), 6/16/08, 4/13/09, $1,980K (-10%)
821 Georgina, 5/6, $3,995K, 3/9/09, 4/16/09, $3,883K (-3%)
703 Palisades Beach, 5/4.5, $7,350K, 1/22/09, 4/30/09, $6,500K (-12%)
808 Adelaide Pl. (photo), 7/10, $11,450K (-33%), 3/31/08, 4/27/09, $10,650K (-7%)
Pacific Palisades 90272 <$2M
14742 Oracle, 4/3, $1,395K (-18%), 11/26/08, 4/21/09, $1,375K (-1%)
826 Bienveneda, 2/2, $1,395K (-20%), 12/7/07, 3/13/09, $1,355K (-3%)
708 Jacon, 3/2.75, $1,475K (-16%), 9/19/08, 4/29/09, $1,300K (-12%)
17907 Vicino, 3/2, $1,499K (-32%), 5/20/08, 3/17/09, $1,328K (-11%)
16799 Calle de Marisa, 4/3.5, $1,645K (-4%), 8/13/08, 3/26/09, $1,500K (-9%)
18120 Wakecrest, 3/2, $1,665K (-9%), 10/2/08, 4/28/09, $1,630K (-2%)
765 Iliff, 5/3, $1,895K, 2/12/09, 3/31/09, $1,950K (+3%)
18013 Sea Reef, 3/2.5, $1,995K, 3/23/09, 4/8/09, $2,050K (+3%)
16619 Calle Haleigh, 4/4.5, $1,995K, 6/25/08, 3/27/09, $1,800K (-10%)
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Quick sales
In the midst of stagnant inventory some new listings with a good combination of location and price quickly sell, especially in Mar Vista where conforming loans can be used.
Here are new listings in April that have already entered escrow the same month. In percentage terms, they are one of 28 April listings in Santa Monica, one of 11 (<$2M) in Pacific Palisades, and seven of 22 in Palms-Mar Vista.
Which is consistent with today's LA Times, "House hunting? It's not a buyer's market everywhere".
Address, bed/bath, list price, list date, contract date
858 25th St., SM, 4/3, $2,250K, 4/17/09, 4/27/09
542 Chapala Dr., PP, 2/1.5, $1,895K, 4/2/09, 4/20/09
12453 Wagner St., MV, 3/1, $549K, 4/23/09, 4/30/09
11631 Charnock Rd., MV (photo), 3/1.75, $599K, 4/17/09, 4/28/09
12408 Sanford St., MV, 5/3, $700K, 4/9/09, 4/20/09
3406 S. Barrington Ave., MV, 4/2, $750K, 4/16/09, 4/29/09
3757 Greenwood Ave., MV, 3/1.5, $759K, 4/3/09, 4/27/09
3439 Wade St., MV, 3/2, $885K, 4/2/09, 4/16/09
3148 Barry Ave., MV, 4/3, $1,195K, 4/16/09, 4/23/09
April inventory charts
These are pretty self-explanatory. Santa Monica <$3M and Pacific Palisades <$2M inventories are extremely high.
SM sold, listed, withdrawn/expired
Santa Monica's sold (closed) listings remained quite low in April, while new listings haven't been off that much from previous years, resulting in climbing inventory and a lot of withdrawn/expired listings. Which typically do get relisted.
Monthly inventory update
5/1/09 - Santa Monica is up for the week and month; Pacific Palisades and Palms/Mar Vista are petty flat; and the Westside total is a little down for the month. All but Palms/Mar Vista are well up over a year earlier. Charts to follow.
4/24/09 - Slightly up, slightly down, I'd really call it pretty flat for the weeks of April so far. New listings MTD appear trending a little below March.
4/17/09 - Santa Monica and Palms-Mar Vista are slightly up, while Pacific Palisades is down by one.
Another low-end north-of-Montana is Pending: the 3 bed / 3 bath at 415 17th, asking $1,799K, a 20% reduction since its listing last December.
Added: Another sale is the 3 bed / 2.75 bath house at 517 14th for $1,775K on 4/16, last asking $1,898K (-21%).
4/10/09 - Santa Monica is up slightly for the week, Pacific Palisades pretty flat, and Palms-Mar Vista down a little. The most activity is in the latter's conforming-mortage listings.
Two low-end north of Montana houses may have found their price levels last week: the 2 bed / 1 bath at 720 17th, last asking $1,649K, and the 3/3 at 210 21st, last asking $1,840K, both entered escrow ("Looking for Backup").
LA County Santa Monica Pacific Palisades Mar Vista
<$3M New Tot DOM<$2M New Tot DOM Tot New DOM
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/06 27,732
2/28/06 29,420
3/31/06 31,819
5/ 1/06 34,032 38 33
6/ 2/06 37,847 56 36 38
6/30/06 42,317 66 40 49
8/ 4/06 45,315 70 34 50
9/ 1/06 46,781 71 27 59
10/ 6/06 47,369 83 25 98 71
11/ 3/06 45,780 80 20 91 77
12/ 1/06 43,103 65 18 72 96 39 20
1/ 5/07 35,646 54 4 60 117 33 6 71 66
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 2/07 36,715 38 15 45 124 29 16 61 71 70
3/ 2/07 41,251 42 14 51 114 26 10 68 79 55 25 76
4/ 6/07 42,857 41 23 49 107 18 8 73 103 54 52 50
5/ 4/07 45,918 46 28 54 92 19 6 82 79 71 37 52
6/ 1/07 52,198 50 25 61 78 17 15 87 78 77 39 53
6/30/07 52,769 42 18 56 81 17 11 92 77 74 33 61
8/ 3/07 54,166 53 28 68 86 23 12 78 76 84 39 68
8/31/07 57,432 57 21 72 98 18 7 69 75 90 40 79
9/28/07 58,973 59 17 74 103 26 9 90 81 87 20 87
11/ 2/07 58,731 62 19 81 120 29 7 106 77 98 35 88
11/30/07 59,108 52 14 67 136 23 11 88 94 96 23 96
12/31/07 53,475 42 5 53 148 19 2 73 119 79 13 116
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
2/ 1/08 53,722 54 16 67 157 26 16 101 118 89 36 96
2/29/08 53,520 50 10 68 178 29 8 108 108 88 21 103
3/28/08 53,566 57 17 81 171 32 14 122 92 82 22 105
5/ 2/08 54,098 59 14 83 159 35 7 136 93 90 33 96
5/30/08 53,216 56 23 79 147 34 9 142 106 91 29 89
6/27/08 53,058 74 28 98 131 30 6 129 107 96 26 95
8/ 2/08 51,906 66 14 89 125 34 8 120 136 99 35 101
8/29/08 50,124 62 9 79 122 29 5 108 156 91 25 104
10/ 3/08 48,113 58 14 82 145 41 15 128 132 84 24 109
10/31/08 47,017 64 22 90 131 55 18 159 126 83 21 103
11/28/08 45,216 64 12 91 141 54 7 151 124 73 9 130
12/31/08 40,810 52 3 80 171 47 5 130 134 63 10 144
-------- ------ -------------- -------------- ----------
1/30/09 38,486 67 16 94 181 59 15 157 145 66 15 157
2/27/09 37,647 73 14 98 164 73 17 181 148 75 19 131
4/ 3/09 84 25 108 155 73 11 187 150 74 24 128
4/10/09 85 7 111 160 72 5 187 144 71 5 126
4/17/09 87 12 112 163 71 7 146 73 12 115
4/24/09 86 16 112 163 70 8 148 71 13 130
5/ 1/09 89 23 115 163 72 11 188 155 73 22 127
5/ 8/09
All Westside 1/30 4/3 5/29 7/31 10/2 11/27
2/27 5/1 6/26 8/28 10/30 12/31
B.Air-H.Hls. 101 106 120 137
Bv.Ctr.-M.M. 58 65 78 83
Beverly Hls. 109 123 134 114
B.H. P.O. 127 147 162 153
Bvywd.Vic. 47 54 62 60
Brentwood 146 162 157 167
Chv.-R.Pk.'8' 31 38 33 39
Culver City 52 44 36 33
Malibu 254 267 288 290
Malibu Beach 63 70 70 70
Marina D.Rey 32 32 28 34
P.Palisades 157 181 187 188
Palms-M.Vista 66 75 74 73
Playa Del Rey 24 24 20 21
Playa Vista 6 6 5 3
Santa Monica 94 98 108 115
Sunset-Hwd.H.285 299 312 293
Topanga 70 73 71 73
Venice 104 121 119 115
W.Hwood.Vic. 61 58 50 56
West L.A. 20 30 32 25
Westchester 53 60 57 42
Wwood.-C.City 67 72 78 78
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
2009 Total 2027 2281
2205 2262
2008 Total 1509 1694 1917 2019 2006 2128
1524 1846 1974 1942 2085 1822
2007 Total 1282 1274 1457 1522 1671 1600
1308 1377 1483 1551 1731 1329
Notes
See here for 2007 monthly totals. LA County inventory via OC Renter. Santa Monica Days on Market (DOM) is for <$3M, and omits Santa Monica Canyon (in City of Los Angeles but S.M. Post Office). Pacific Palisades DOM is for <$2M and count omits mobile homes. "New" is for previous month, or month-to-date for current partial month.