Saturday, May 16, 2009

Not selling north of Montana

Enough with Mar Vista, eh? So let's get back to everyone's favorite neighborhood and update our "Not selling north of Montana" series, last done three months ago. Here's the summary of our monthly lists of everything over 30 days on the market in past months. They keep accumulating, putting more pressure to reduce prices.

5/16/09 - 33
2/16/09 - 29
5/20/08 - 21
4/21/08 - 21
1/16/08 - 7
12/15/07 - 9
11/14/07 - 9
10/15/07 - 11
9/15/07 - 10
8/16/07 - 13
7/16/07 - 8

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date

209 25th (photo above), 3/2.5, $1,748K (-15%), 10/7/08
639 26th, 2/2, $1,750K (-10%), 10/3/08

237 Adelaide, 1/1.5, $2,195K (-24%), 7/7/08
464 20th, 3/2, $2,195K, 4/2/09
633 11th, 5/4.5, $2,495K (-23%), 6/14/08
2009 Montana, 5/6.5, $2,498K (-11%), 3/4/09
508 10th, 4/3, $2,499K, 4/14/09
457 24th, 5/4.5, $2,595K, 3/26/09
405 9th, 3/3.5, $2,698K (-4%), 3/2/09
634 23rd, 3/2.5, $2,750K, 3/6/09
715 23rd, 5/5.5, $2,895K (-12%), 2/12/09
811 Marguerita, 4/3.5, $2,990K, 3/26/09

365 23rd, 4/4.5, $3,195K (-14%), 11/13/08
553 12th, 5/4.5, $3,295K (-6%), 1/26/09
402 Alta, 4/4.5, $3,495K (-10%), 3/23/09
1211 Georgina, 5/3.5, $3,550K, 3/12/09
229 22nd, 4/4.5, $3,600K (-10%), 2/17/09
311 Marguerita, 5/4.5, $3,695K, 1/5/09
710 24th, 6/5.5, $3,695K, 3/30/09
133 17th, 5/6.5, $3,695K (-23%), 10/30/08
324 Euclid, 5/4.5, $3,785K (-11%), 12/1/07
628 24th, 5/6.5, $3,795K (-12%), 7/21/08
739 23rd, 5/4, $3,895K (-9%), 6/4/08
607 26th, 6/5, $3,950K (-17%), 3/20/09
215 21st Pl, 5/4.5, $3,995K (-5%), 12/12/08
209 Euclid, 5/6, $3,999K (-9%), 2/5/09
251 24th, 6/6, $4,000K (-15%), 10/31/08

703 25th, 5/5.5, $4,195K (-11%), 11/6/08
509 21st Pl, 6/6, $4,250K, 4/2/09
402 20th (photo below), 5/5.5, $4,288K (-22%), 10/30/08

315 Palisades, 4/3.5, $5,299K (-12%), 12/9/08

333 Adelaide, 4/6.5, $9,850K, 2/3/09
1605 San Vicente, 7/8, $16,500K (-27%), 2/9/09

And here's what happened to the ones from 2/16/09 that are no longer available: 13 withdrawn / expired vs. only 6 looking for backup / pending / sold.

Withdrawn / Expired

527 7th, 2/1, $1,690K (-6%), 5/12/08
733 20th, 3/2, $1,995K (-5%), 10/27/08
620 22nd, 3/2, $2,099K (-12%), 10/23/08
308 15th, 3/2, $2,350K (-5%), 1/5/09
1102 San Vicente, 4/2, $2,495K, 10/24/08
247 20th, 3/3, $2,500K (-13%), 10/8/08
603 21st, 3/3, $2,700K, 10/26/08
1628 Georgina, 4/3, $2,895K (-21%), 10/25/08
444 10th, 5/3, $3,130K, 11/13/08
636 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,495K (-13%), 3/14/08
443 14th, 4/5.5, $3,950K (-7%), 12/4/08
1005 San Vicente, 2/4.5, $3,995K (-7%), 9/12/08
1228 San Vicente, 5/5.5, $5,250K, 10/21/08

Looking for Backup / Pending / Sold

320 9th, 3/2, $1,699K (-19%), 11/12/08
415 17th, 3/3, $1,799K (-20%), 12/4/08
634 12th, 3/2.5, $2,625K (-3%), 10/20/08
734 22nd, 5/4.5, $3,678K (-14%), 3/21/08
327 Alta, 5/3.5, $3,995K, 12/1/08
808 Adelaide Pl, 7/10, $12,450K (-27%), 3/31/08, 4/27/09, $10,650K (-7%)

28 comments:

Robert said...

as a newcomer to California and fresh from the real estate depression in South Florida and a potential buyer north of Montana, what guidelines do you and the readers suggest I use to time my purchase?
1999 or 2002 or some other year as a base price?
price per sq ft.?
lot size or street?
anything else which could guide me?
Thank you all. I AWAIT YOUR IDEAS AND ADVICE.

Anonymous said...

Wait until people stop telling you that real estate always goes up here. Also wait until rents are more in line with prices. I like the New Yokr Times rent vs buy calculator because it is more realistic about costs. When it is much cheaper to rent there is no reason to buy. I have seen prices overcorrect vs rents several times, but it takes patience. If you know you will live here a long time and don't have to worry about selling, then these calculations won't matter so much. I moved here 3 years ago and have rented the whole time. Boy am I glad now. I thought there was a bubble about to pop and was just grateful to sell my last home before it popped and rent during the fall. I miss owning, but I don't like to lose money.

Anonymous said...

"When it is much cheaper to rent there is no reason to buy."

Please do tell, when was the last time it was cheaper to buy than rent North of Montana.

Westside Bubble said...

Robert, I suggested reasons in January to look for a return to 2003 prices in 2010, at around 33% below the peak. If true (insert big fat disclaimer!) the price drop so far is half way there.

Anonymous said...

This is a lot of work...thanks for the data.

Anonymous said...

I think the New Yorker has found a market similar to L.A.-----his own in NYC.

Anonymous said...

I agree that you should never every buy a condo or townhouse in SM unless it is cheaper to buy than to rent

The problem is that when it comes to SFRs North of Montana it has been cheaper to rent than buy since 1969

if you had decided to live North of Montana and take this advice, you would have rented for 40 years and missed out on a lot

Anonymous said...

This post looks like a lot of expensive inventory that is not selling.

Kind of like expensive baubles in a chic Montana Avenue boutique after Christmas, where they keep marking the prices down until even the "dog" houses sell.

Like over the weekend on Montana Ave "sidewalk sale", lots of shoppers, lots of curiosity, still relative high "Montana" prices, little uniqueness, and little buying.

But it was fun to walk around and look, except of course it is not fun at all for the sellers and shops that are going out of business because they are not making sales as the economics do not make sense, including Shabby Chic, once a mainstay.

Oh well, economics, it's a dismal science anyway.

Anonymous said...

But it was fun to walk around and look, except of course it is not fun at all for the sellers and shops that are going out of business because they are not making sales as the economics do not make sense, including Shabby Chic, once a mainstay.

The shops on Montana are dated, including Shabby Chic which was big about 15 years ago. The downturn creates a cleaning cycle - time for some new retail, service, and food concepts to move in, hopefully with cheaper rents and the ability to combine small store fronts.

Anonymous said...

McDonald's on Montana, I can't wait. Hopefully they'll have a grand piano like the one near Wall Street. It makes the McNuggets taste so much better.

Anonymous said...

McDonald's on Montana on would be great - means the planning commission is ready to allow more food establishments and maybe some ABC licenses. Happy meals for all!

Anonymous said...

Throng at Planet Blue belies death of shabby chic. Some markets always attract buyers. I can't tell why some thrive and others fail.

Anonymous said...

As far as being cheaper to buy than rent, I have livedin several states and it may well never be cheaper to buy north of Montana, I am probably one of the few here ont his blog who has no plans of buying in to an expensive neighborhood purely for prestige. I also will continue to rent if necessary.

Years ago i read an analysis of renting vs buying in the Wall Street Journal, this was back when it was still a good paper. Int he analysis even in inflated CA markets, people who rented and had saving discipline came out way ahead long term because equity markets outproduce homes. Home ownership is generally a lifestyle choice rather than an investment. It produces nothing but expenses.

I would love to live here long term, but if the prices stay high and we don't get in to something cheap, we will leave the area either when my husband chages jobs or when he retires. We lived in Mexico for a year and there are many wonderful communities there which have not yet been taken over by wealthy Americans and remain dirt cheap. There are also plenty of less expensive places here in CA and around the country.

The leadership in CA seem to think they can tax us dry and we will stick around and pay no matter what just for the very perfect weather. Many people have limits and vote with their feet. I am hoping things will get cleaned up a bit if the taxpayers finally revolt and start asking for value for their money, but we will see. The LA roads are like many of the ones in Mexico and the new Cuota's in Mexico are much nicer. Meanwhile as our infrustructure fails our administration costs rise. Our schools have plenty of money, but it all goes to state and local administration and the classrooms don't see it. The good news is that there are so many good private schools and other options. Like the cash economy when the government does a bad job people find ways to work around it.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Anon 4:37 about the decline of California in general. Other than the great weather, I am starting to feel like a stranger here. Taxes and more taxes (just wait until you buy a house and get those prop. taxes!) and STILL the roads, air, schools, healthcare services decline. Its bad. I wouldn't move to a 3rd world country like Mexico, but L.A. is pretty close to it, minus the drug wars.

However, I DO feel that buying RE was the best investment my family ever made. We have 2 SFRs in Santa Monica and a small apt. bldg. It was expensive to buy them (Early 90's after an inheritance windfall), but a way better return than bonds/stocks/CD's, etc. Even after expenses -taxes/maintenance, etc.. They pay double digit returns. Just depends on the amount of work you want to do ....its more work than plunking your $$$ into a brokerage firm, but its way more satisfying and for us...lucrative.

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