Tuesday, May 19, 2009

April DataQuick

It's kind of bizarre how DataQuick's median prices for Los Angeles County have flat-lined for four months now. Here are some highlights of their press release, which reinforce the Westside's current experience of record inventory and very low sales:

Foreclosure resales – homes sold in April that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 53.6 percent of all Southland resales last month. It was the seventh consecutive month in which post-foreclosure properties made up more than half of all resales.

The deep discounts associated with foreclosures have created stiff competition for builders, who last month sold the lowest number of newly constructed homes for an April since at least 1988. ...

The sales picture was dramatically different in many older, high-end communities closer to the coast, where foreclosures and deep discounts are less common. Sales of existing houses remained at or near record lows for an April in markets such as Beverly Hills, Malibu, Palos Verdes Peninsula, Manhattan Beach and Pacific Palisades.

Among the reasons high-end sales remain so sluggish: The “jumbo” mortgages needed to buy such homes have been more expensive and much harder to obtain since August 2007, when the credit crunch hit. Before then, nearly 40 percent of Southland sales were financed with jumbo loans, then defined as over $417,000. Last month it was 10.9 percent.

In the more affordable inland areas, first-time buyers have relied heavily on government-insured FHA financing. Such loans were used to finance a near-record 39.1 percent of all Southland home purchases last month, up from 18.4 percent a year ago. In the Inland Empire, more than half of all April home purchases were financed with FHA loans. ...

“The problem,” [John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president] continued, “is that we still face two big threats to price stability: layoffs, which can cause foreclosures across the home price spectrum, and possibly a new round of foreclosures triggered by defaults on ‘option ARM’ and ‘stated income’loans used in mid-to high-end markets. Also of concern are reports of lenders holding back for many months before making a public foreclosure filing, which we track. If job cuts remain deep and foreclosures spike, then the past few months might later be viewed as nothing more than a brief calm before the next foreclosure storm.”

Median prices are down 45.5% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 28% year-to-year from April 2008. (February DataQuick post; oops, I wiped out the March one)

This leaves Los Angeles County prices at April 2003, Orange County at November 2002, Ventura County at November 2002, and San Diego at February 2002.


Anonymous said...

Is it just me, or does it look like San Diego prices in the graph are leveling off at Dec 2001 levels?

Anonymous said...

a SMALL number of 90402 teardowns have gone in to escrow or closed escrow recently

let's discuss price

Anonymous said...

Prices will not level off until no one is interested in blogs like this. No offense Westside. Love the blog.

Anonymous said...

Anybody hear Larry Mantle? Sad.

Anonymous said...

90402 is already down despite this blog

this blog talking about the 90402 doesnt impact prices in the 90402

Anonymous said...

My (anon 10:09) point is not that this blog props anything up. It is that the turnaround will only occur when most have given up on residential real estate as an investment and lose interest in the real estate blogs.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

there has to be capitulation before prices reach their bottom

Someone just came in and wrote a check for one million seven hundred thousand for a piece of dirt next to noisy san vicente.

a crummy crummy location -- one point seven million

we have NOT reached the point of capitulation yet

far from it

Anonymous said...

Did anyone notice how many homes sold in Santa Monica during February?

4 properties closed.....total for all the zip codes! Same with Venice.

Anonymous said...

There's still a lot of idiots with way more money than brains, who listen to the Realtards and can't help themselves. It's going to take another year or two.

Anonymous said...

The end is nigh.

Anonymous said...

This whole - housing will not bottom til no one is interested in real estate meme is stupid.

Fact of the matter is there will ALWAYS be someone interested in real estate. Large groups of pumpers & bubble heads were interested in it 2003-2008. They are all gone.

Large swaths of lurkers were extremely interested in real estate 2003-2008. Many of them are gone.

The permaberas will be here forever - never admitting the true bottom, be it now, or 25 years from now. Thats why they are called permabears :)

Anonymous said...

Memetics are stupid.

Anonymous said...

yes but people will stop obsessing over the 90402 then it will be time to buy
not now

Anonymous said...

Do people who live East of downtown dream and fantasize and crave San Marino (best neighborhood East of Downtown) the same way people on the West side crave 90402?

I mean San Marino is the cream of the crop in the East and 90402 is in the West - what is the equivalent in the North and what is the equivalent in the South

Anonymous said...

No way Bells Beach is bigger than 90402, bra. is 90402 really the best of the west? I prefer Point Dume.

Anonymous said...

Rents ???

I have been looking and looking and the only remotely decent three bedroom box in a multi family building in Franklin School district is

837 18Th St Unit: 4
This is $6700 a month

!!!!!!! $6700 !!!!!!!!!!!

Rents still high

Anonymous said...

is 90402 really the best of the west?

No. Within sriking distance of Westside LA jobs, 90402 is a popular and upscale bedroom community. Other than La Mesa street, SM has nothing to offer on the high-end like Bel Air, Brentwood Park, Pacific Palisades, Beverly Hills, Malibu, etc.

High end buyers don't talk about their neighborhoods, and frankly, most '90402 pundits' here probably don't have a good idea of what is in the super high end. After visiting friends in Beverly Crest, 90402 feels like Culver City.

Anonymous said...

I have been looking and looking and the only remotely decent three bedroom box in a multi family building in Franklin School district is... $6700 a monthUnlikely. When I was looking a couple of months ago, there were very nice 3 bedroom SFRs in your precious Franklin district for around $4500. I saw a decent (not A+, but A-) 3-bedroom apartment for $2800.

I saw another *gorgeous* A++ apartment, technically 2 bedrooms, but huge and beautiful, also asking $2800. I have serious regrets about not taking that place. (I went with a SFR.)

Anyway, you can tell your client they are not getting $6700 a month.

Anonymous said...

Look on MLS
that three bedroom is listed for 6700

If you see quality 3 bedrom SFRs in Franklin or quality MFRs in Franklin please post them

NOT all of us are looking to buy.

Many of us are looking to rent and we need to get in before school starts

Anonymous said...

I rent a shabby place in 90402 for 1765.00 Oh its rent control, sorry.

Anonymous said...

Darn you rent controlled people who first rented in the 1970s are lucky

I know you are getting good deals

More power to ya.

I am asking about market rents, rents that I can jump in and sign up for right now

Anonymous said...

I have seen four 3bd SFRs in Franklin in the last two months at $5500 or less (listed at 6.7K then slowly dropped to 5k range), all went quickly once they reached this price point, even the two barely livable homes.

Figure two children of school age and private school = 2k each, there is significant competition for your demographic. Rent at this price point is essentially free if the only option is private school or Franklin.

I decided to rent in 90405 instead. Still high relative to surrounding cities, but much more livable at this price point.

Anonymous said...

OK - so your stake in the ground is that right now, there are NO livable decent SFRs in the Franklin district for less than 5k a month rent?

Just want to clarify that is indeed what you are saying

Anonymous said...

Yes, for 3bd, traditional SFRs (not front house with apts behind). I recall a 2bd (in Roosevelt) that could not rent at ~3.9K, not sure what happened to it.

Have not looked since April 1.

Every renter family with school age children wants a 3bd house for cheap in a great school district.

Go to condos and its gets easier, and 2bd condos, much easier. I recall 3bd, brand new and very nice condos for under 5K on 18th 90403 (asking more, but accepting less). Offer what you are willing to pay. My current rent is 1K less than asking and every unit I viewed was willing to negotiate.

Anonymous said...

LOL to comparing San Marino to 90402. Please go to the San Marino bubble blog. Oh that's right, there isn't one because NO ONE CARES.

Now back to the 90402 . . .

Anonymous said...

Since there are so many of us on this blog looking to rent 3 bedroom in the 90403 let's have more posts on specific opportunities to do that

we are ready to jump in with offers on rentals

Anonymous said...

San Marino is the very best neighborhood East of Downtown

90402 is the very best neighborhood West of Downtown

but overall the West side is better than East side so overall 90402 trumps San Marino

no need to ever bring up San Marino on this blog again

Anonymous said...

why are we looking at april post in May

Westside Bubble said...

why are we looking at april post in May

I accidently edited the April post rather than copying it into a new post first. Oh well.

JeffL said...

$2500/mo for a 3BR/2BA Condo in SM, with a balcony. If you look, you can get.

Anonymous said...

Check this out for an explanation of why median prices are very deceptive.


In short, if every house does not drop one cent, but the mix of houses sold includes more low end, the median drops. The drop does not reflect an actual change in a single home price.

Thus, with the increase in low end sales going on right now, the median drops more than even the change in price of the low end.

The median is only useful in demonstrating the mix of homes sold. It is not useful for determining the change in price. Look at the S&P/Case Shiller instead. The latter index compares the sale price of the same home having two sales.

Anonymous said...

I don't think the median price/ CS index difference is all that cut and dry.

Median can't tell you what a particular house is worth, but it can tell you what's happening in the market.

The median is dropping because of the abundance of low end sales because they have lost value and high end homes aren't selling because they are priced incorrectly or not offered at all. This tells me that there have been substantial drops in housing values in LA. Since I'm not looking at a particular house that's all I need.

Anonymous said...

You are delusional if you think 90402 is the best of the westside. What about several areas in Malibu? Point Dume? Brentwood has better neighborhoods! Beverly Park. Most of Beverly Hills, actually. 90402 is merely the best of Santa Monica. And that's subject to discussion unless your only criteria are cost of housing and third party ranking of public schools.

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