Wednesday, May 6, 2009

SM and PP sales update

For all the talk about whether sales are up or not, what matters is how much prices are falling, that is what houses are selling for now. Here's an update of all Pacific Palisades (<$2M) and Santa Monica sales closed since our March 16 YTD listing, and I'll aim for monthly updates going forward. Probably all of these also entered escrow in 2009, making them even more timely.

Notice some huge asking price reductions and additional sold price cuts it took to finally sell some listings from 2008 (over 10% in red). Some sellers actually need to sell, and they are finally creating the falling comps for new listings.

Address, bed/bath, current price (-% from orig.), orig.list date, sale date, sale price (-% from last list price)

Sunset Park 90405 (south of Pico, east of Lincoln)

1213 Oak, 2/1.5, $795K (-11%), 9/17/08, 3/27/09, $800K (+1%)
1008 Bay, 2/1, $849K (-5%), 1/5/09, 3/26/09, $825K (-3%)
2421 21st, 2/1, $929K (-5%), 1/28/09, 4/9/09, $910K (-2%)
1643 Hill, 5/4, $1,350K (-27%), 8/5/08, 5/5/09, $1,150K (-15%)

Ocean Park 90405 (south of Pico, west of Lincoln)

2428 3rd, 4/3, $1,789K (-6%), 10/23/08, 4/17/09, $1,740K (-3%)
130 Hart, 2/3, $2,350K, 1/12/09, 3/20/09, $2,250K (-4%)
127 Hollister, 3/4, $2,755K (-19%), 10/2/08, 3/31/09, $2,775K (+1%)

Santa Monica 90403 (Wilshire-Montana)


Santa Monica 90402 (north of Montana)

210 21st, 3/3, $1,840K (-26%), 6/19/08, 4/14/09, $1,700K (-8%)
517 14th, 3/2.75, $1,898K (-21%), 5/1/08, 4/16/09, $1,775K (-6%)
1320 San Vicente, 3/3.5, $2,199K (-20%), 6/16/08, 4/13/09, $1,980K (-10%)
821 Georgina, 5/6, $3,995K, 3/9/09, 4/16/09, $3,883K (-3%)
703 Palisades Beach, 5/4.5, $7,350K, 1/22/09, 4/30/09, $6,500K (-12%)
808 Adelaide Pl. (photo), 7/10, $11,450K (-33%), 3/31/08, 4/27/09, $10,650K (-7%)

Pacific Palisades 90272 <$2M

14742 Oracle, 4/3, $1,395K (-18%), 11/26/08, 4/21/09, $1,375K (-1%)
826 Bienveneda, 2/2, $1,395K (-20%), 12/7/07, 3/13/09, $1,355K (-3%)
708 Jacon, 3/2.75, $1,475K (-16%), 9/19/08, 4/29/09, $1,300K (-12%)
17907 Vicino, 3/2, $1,499K (-32%), 5/20/08, 3/17/09, $1,328K (-11%)
16799 Calle de Marisa, 4/3.5, $1,645K (-4%), 8/13/08, 3/26/09, $1,500K (-9%)
18120 Wakecrest, 3/2, $1,665K (-9%), 10/2/08, 4/28/09, $1,630K (-2%)
765 Iliff, 5/3, $1,895K, 2/12/09, 3/31/09, $1,950K (+3%)
18013 Sea Reef, 3/2.5, $1,995K, 3/23/09, 4/8/09, $2,050K (+3%)
16619 Calle Haleigh, 4/4.5, $1,995K, 6/25/08, 3/27/09, $1,800K (-10%)


Anonymous said...

This is very very useful info

the two 90402 properties that sold - on 21st and 14th had severe busy traffic problems

I would guess the market for non busy streets in the 90402 right now is 100k higher

that implies that BUSY street teardowns are 1.7 and NON BUSY 1.8

note that these are DOWN massively from the peak - MASSIVELY
so much for the jokers on this board that said the 90402 was immune.

Westside Bubble said...

I'm still waiting for the escrows at 320 9th (last asking $1,699K), 415 17th ($1,799K), and 716 18th ($1,875K) to close. Those sale prices will be very useful.

Anonymous said...

Agreed -

since 17th is busy, the really relevant one is 320 9th

9th is a good street

if that one sells for 1.7 that would indicate that quality streets in 90402 today have land selling for 1.7 and not 1.8

Anonymous said...

Does MASSIVELY mean mean 10% off in 90402?

Lot value was determined to be 1.9 PRE crazy bubble (2004 to early 2007)

So 100K off is massive cut I guess......

Anonymous said...

Yeah, 2004-2007 was way before the crazy bubble. WTF????

tbgpalisades said...

Good post - prices are definitely beginning to crack.

If you're seriously in the market, it might be worthwhile to start thinking of buying this fall. Be careful on the offer, as prices will still be declining, but if you're careful, the risk might start to make some sense, especially if you're worried about inflation kicking in. Keep an eye out for distressed situations and foreclosures.

Let's keep the pressure on the sellers through this "buying season", too many are still delusional.

Anonymous said...

great post and blog, thanks.

price declines realized so far, to me at least, seem underwhelming relative to the price inflation we experienced from 2002 onward.

the increased cost and tighter availability of credit alone should justify lower prices than the ones we're seeing--even before giving affect to the lousy macroenvironment.

truly, home prices are very sticky on the way down, without the grease of foreclosures and distress...

Anonymous said...

"prices are begining to crack"

Seriously? Where were you in Q1 of 2009? They crumbled!!! I do agree with you though. Another 6 or 8 months might show further declines for a better deal than right now in the fall. Could be flat tho. we'll see i guess.

Richard Mason said...
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Richard Mason said...
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Richard Mason said...

Anon 8:20 Lot value was determined to be 1.9 PRE crazy bubble (2004 to early 2007).

Anon 10:14 Yeah, 2004-2007 was way before the crazy bubble. WTF????

I've noticed a fair number of people (including some reporters, people quoted in the media, etc.) don't use the "bubble" metaphor correctly.

They say "bubble" to mean "sudden decline in prices"... which might more correctly be referred to as the "end of the bubble" or the "bubble bursting."

That might be the case here.

Anonymous said...

Didn't the house at 449 Euclid sell?

Anonymous said...

Didn't 701 21st PL sell too?

Anonymous said...

Many many many data points for honest value of dirt in the 90402

true value should by clear as crystal right now - let's see the numbers

Anonymous said...

I think 'dirt value' is very subjective.

What I might consider a move in now/upgrade later property just to get in a good neighborhood, might be a teardown to someone else.

Anonymous said...

Looks like the Westside, which was largely untouched by the subprime mess, should get hit pretty hard by the option-ARM recasts, which will start to build later this year, with all hell breaking loose into 2010/2011. Given the record unemployment locally, is seems highly unlikely so see any leveling off during that period, even if credit does loosen up a bit.

If I had to guess, I would say we'll see a return to historic trend levels, which should mean at least 50% reductions in most areas, up to 70% in others, depending on how much prices went up during the bubble. Given that the hysteria is long gone, there is no reason that market forces won't prevail once more (after all, the 100 year plus trend level was determined by actual supply and demand, rather than bubble mania).

For all the renters out there, I've never seen so many "for rent" signs in Brentwood, especially by Wilshire/San Vicente, where almost every building has a sign up now. This is looking worse than 1994-1997, when rents plunged (and it makes sense, as unemployment is far higher now than then). So if you're holding out for lower prices, you might find some really great deals on the rental market while you wait.

Anonymous said...

I agree rents are absolutely collapsing in Brentwood. Great to take advantage of this
however rents on the 3 bedroom town houses in Franklin school district are rock solid. I have seen nothing decent under four thousand a month and me and my husband have been looking for six months now.

any leads or ideas would be much appreciated

Stymie said...

OK we have a global recession, tight credit, soaring unemployment (esp. in CA, ESP. in SoCal, and **ESP** on the Westside -- I'm noticing the streets in my neighborhood aren't clearing in the mornings anymore...)

Add to that people leaving the state, distressed sellers, very good deals for renters, and the fact that end of 2010/start of 2011 is still a long way off, and you have a lot of reasons to believe that homes on the westside will easily fall to 50% of peak, if not further.

Let's face it, $1.3M for an 1100 sq ft 2BDR home in Santa Monica is bullshit. Back in the days of house flipping, irrational exuberance and easy credit that flew, but not now.

I think there are a lot of very stressed-out, panicked folks who are on the precipice right now.